高輝度 LED の世界市場

Abstract

This new report, brought to you jointly by NanoMarkets and CIR, analyzes the world wide market for high brightness LEDs (HB-LEDs). Although there have been recent rumors of industry maturity in this sector recently, our new study finds that HB-LEDs continue to grow rapidly, both in terms of revenues and in terms of new applications. This report is geared to the needs of both managers and investors who must understand the future prospects for the HB-LED markets and where the emerging business opportunities are to be found. Among the areas on which this report provides in-depth guidance are the following:

• Key design and manufacturing improvements that are enabling HB-LED manufacturers to distinguish themselves in the market and improve yields
• The impact of new materials platforms such as quantum dots and silicon photonics for the HB-LED market
• Emerging applications in signage, intelligent transport systems, rural lighting and dentistry and how HB-LEDs are enabling entirely new kinds of products to be designed and manufactured
• The changing geography of HB-LED markets. In which part of the world are HB-LEDs being bought? In which parts of the world are they being manufactured?
• Strategies and structure. In this report, we critically appraise the strategies of the major HB-LED manufacturers including their manufacturing and outsourcing strategies and ask the questions -- is there room for start-ups in HB-LEDs anymore? And will there be consolidation in the HB-LED business?

CIR has been tracking the optoelectronics business for more than two decades while NanoMarkets has produced over a dozen reports that offer a unique perspective on the impact of new materials on electronics and semiconductor markets. This report was based on interviews conducted by an international team carrying out interviews on three continents and will be invaluable reading for manufacturers of electronics and lighting products of all kinds as well as the HB-LED manufacturers themselves -- and, of course, investors. The report includes detailed forecasts broken out by type of product and application.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

E.1 Key Opportunities and Strategies in the HB-LED Market

E.2 Manufacturer and OEM Perspectives

E.2.1 The Manufacturing Perspective

E.2.2 The OEM Perspective

E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Worldwide HB-LED Market

E.4 The Bottom Line

Chapter One  Introduction

1.1 High Brightness LEDs—The Light Keeps Shining

1.2 Why HB-LEDs Are So Big

1.3 HB-LEDs – Lighting the Way to a Bright Future

1.4 Brightness is the Dark Side of HB-LEDs

1.5 Realizing the Rainbow—From Red LED to Blue LED

1.6 Facing the White Light Challenge

1.7 HB-LED Value Chain—Buyer Motivations

1.8 Key Objectives of the Report

1.9 Research Methodology and Information Sources

1.10 Scope of this Report

1.11 Plan of the Report

Chapter Two LED Technology—What Was and What Will Be

2.1 HB-LED Technology—The Road So Far

2.1.1 Traditional Lighting vs. HB-LEDs—The Technology Perspective

2.1.2 Solid State Lighting—Ushering in a New Phenomenon

2.1.2.1 Wide Band-gap—The Gallium Nitride Story

2.1.3 LED vs. High-Brightness LED

2.2 HB-LEDs—Technical Benefits and Shortcomings

2.2.1 Benefits

2.2.2 Shortcomings

2.3 Advancing LED Research—the Journey Continues

2.4 LED Technology—Implications of Haitz s Law

2.5 HB-LEDs and other SSL Technologies

2.5.1 Organic LEDs

2.5.2 Silicon-Based LEDs

2.5.3 Quantum-Dot LEDs

Chapter Three HB-LED Applications

3.1 The Next Wave of HB-LED Applications

3.2 Backlighting—For Bigger and Brighter Screens

3.2.1 Cell phones—Saying Hello with Style

3.2.2 LCD Backlighting Applications and Large Displays

3.3 Automotive LEDs—Paving a Brighter Road to the Future

3.4 Aviation—A New Light in the Skies

3.5 Traffic Lights – Making Safer Roads

3.6 Signage—The Light You Cannot Ignore

3.6 General Illumination with LEDs

3.7 Emerging Applications

3.7.1 Intelligent Transport Systems

3.7.2 Rural Applications—Bringing Light Where There Was None

3.7.3 Curing Polymer-based Dental Filling Materials

3.7.4 Developing Systems Integrated with Batteries

3.7.5 Other Emerging Applications

Chapter Four HB-LED Suppliers and the HB-LED Value Chain

4.1 HB-LED Value Chain

4.1.1 Production Equipment and Materials Suppliers

4.1.2 Chip and Fixture Designers

4.1.3 Chip and Fixture Designers

4.2 Emerging Regions

4.2.1 What to Watch For in Asia

4.3 The Big-Five Suppliers—Market Shares and Challenges

4.3.1 Cree Inc.

4.3.2 Lumileds Inc

4.3.3 Nichia

4.3.4 Osram Opto Semiconductors

4.3.5 Toyoda Gosei

4.4 Other HB-LED Suppliers—Start-ups and Others to Watch

4.4.1 Lamina Ceramics

4.4.2 Lednium

4.4.3 Other Start-Ups

Chapter Five Eight-Year Forecast: 2006-2013

5.1 Forecasting Methodology

5.1.1 The Approach

5.2 Eight-Year Revenue Forecast

5.2.1 Device Type Forecast by Percentage of Revenue 2004-2013

5.3 Average Selling Price Declines–HB-LEDs

5.4 Unit Forecasts – HB-LEDs

5.4.1 Unit Forecasts—By Application

5.4.2 Revenue Forecasts—By Application

5.4.2.1 Application Forecast by Percentage of Revenue 2004-2013

Appendix A

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1 Major HB-LED Manufacturers

Exhibit E-2 Eight-Year HB-LED and UHB-LED Revenue Forecast ($ Millions)

Exhibit E-3: Applications Driving the HB-LED Industry

Exhibit 1-1: The Biggest Drivers for the HB-LED industry (2000-2020)

Exhibit 2-1 HB-LED Technology

Exhibit 2-3: Lumens per package have doubled nearly every 18-24 months

Exhibit 3-1: Share of HB-LED Applications in 2005

Exhibit 3-2 Major Applications of HB-LEDs

Exhibit 3-3: HB-LED Usage in Cell-phones

Exhibit 3-4: World s Largest High-definition Television Screen, Turner Field Atlanta

Exhibit 3-5: Audi Allroad – The All-LED Headlight Car

Exhibit 3-6 Lighting Applications in Automotives

Exhibit 3-7: The Boeing 787 –Sky

Exhibit 3-8: LED Traffic Lights and LED Signals

Exhibit 3-9: CITGO Sign of Boston – The LED Makeover

Exhibit 3-10 Light Sources and their Characteristics

Figure 3-11: Rising Lumens/Watt of HB-LEDs

Exhibit 3-12 Other Emerging Applications of HB-LEDs

Exhibit 4-1: Key Players in the HB-LED Value Chain

Exhibit 4-2 Domestic LED Manufacturing Firms in Mainland China

Exhibit 4-3 LED Manufacturers in Taiwan

Exhibit 4-4 Disputes and Deals in White HB-LEDs

Exhibit 4-5: Market Share of Major HB-LED Manufacturers in 2004

Exhibit 4-6 Other LED Suppliers

Exhibit 4-7 Other Interesting Start-ups

Exhibit 5-1 Eight-Year Forecast of LED Revenue and Growth

Exhibit 5-2: LED Industry Revenue Forecast, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-3: LED Industry Revenue Percent Growth Forecast, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-4 Eight-Year Revenue Forecast of LED Device Type by Percentage

Exhibit 5-5: Revenue Forecast of LED Device Type by Percentage, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-6 Eight-Year Revenue Forecast of LED by Device Type ($Millions)

Exhibit 5-7 Eight-Year Forecast of Average Selling Prices of HB-LEDs ($)

Exhibit 5-8: Average Selling Price, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-9 Eight-Year HB-LED Revenue Forecasts (Unit Millions)

Exhibit 5-10: HB-LED Unit Forecasts, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-11 Eight-Year HB-LED Unit Forecast by Application (Unit Millions)

Figure 5-12: HB-LED Unit Forecast by Application Type, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-13 Eight-Year HB-LED Revenue Forecast by Application Type ($ Millions)

Exhibit 5-14: HB-LED Revenue Forecast by Application Type, 2004-2013

Exhibit 5-15 Eight-Year HB-LED Revenue Forecast by Application Type (Percentage)

Exhibit 5-15-1: HB-LED Revenue Forecast by Application Type, 2005

Figure 5-15-2: HB-LED Revenue Forecast by Application Type, 2010

Figure 5-15-3: HB-LED Revenue Forecast by Application Type, 2013