INTRODUCTION
The last few years have seen record levels of activity in the housing market. Now, however, there is growing recognition that buoyancy will not
continue and instead the outlook for the rest of 2003 and beyond is less positive. This report considers a range of indicators of the future direction
of the housing market and concludes with Datamonitor's forecasts of mortgage market gross advances.
SCOPE OF THE REPORT
- Data on a wide range of mortgage market dynamics
- Coverage of the UK mortgage market over the last twenty years
- Interviews with leading mortgage industry executives
- Forecasts of mortgage market gross advances to 2007 under two scenarios
REPORT HIGHLIHGTS
Separating loans for house purchase from loans for remortgaging reveals that the latter continues to drive the market as demand for the former
slows down significantly. Consequently, since January 2003 gross advances on loans for re-mortgaging have actually been higher than gross advances on
loans for house purchase
In recent years there has been such desperation to get on to the property ladder that many homebuyers will have no doubt
purchased properties that are significantly overvalued. As confidence evaporates and a belief sets in that prices are going to fall further, there
will be no such rush to purchase these overvalued properties
If interest rates remain low, as they are predicted to do, there is little to suggest
that affordability constraints will become more pressing in the near future
KEY REASONS TO BUY THIS REPORT
- Gain insight into Datamonitor's opinion on the future direction of the mortgage market
- Learn about how the drivers of the mortgage market over the next five years will differ from those in previous years
- Determine how changing macroeconomic conditions will impact on gross advances in the mortgage market
Overview
Introduction
Scope
Report Highlights
Reasons to Purchase
Scope
ABOUT DATAMONITOR
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
- What is this report about?
- Who is the target reader?
- How to use this report
- Scope
- Related reports
CHAPTER 2 MARKET CONTEXT
- The housing market boom
- Property prices have rocketed
- Gross advances: growth takes off in 2000
- The number of loans advanced increased rapidly over the period 1998-2002
- Causes of the housing market boom
- Macroeconomic conditions
- Mortgage rates are at a historical low
- Competition in the mortgage market is currently intense
- Consequences of the housing market boom
- First time buyers are being priced out of the home ownership
- The secured loan market has benefited from the boom in the housing market
- Conclusion
CHAPTER 3 THE MARKET GOING FORWARD
- Macroeconomic indicators going forward
- Assessing the change in macroeconomic indicators so far in 2003
- Independent macroeconomic forecasts, 2003-2007
- The state of play in the housing market
- Property price growth has slowed and prices are falling in some areas
- Lending figures show a weakening in demand for mortgage loans in 2003
- High house prices and low interest rates make judging affordability constraints difficult
- Conclusion
CHAPTER 4 THE FUTURE DECODED
- Forecasts of mortgage market gross advances, 2003e-2007f
- Neutral scenario: a return to the realm of reality
- Pessimistic scenario: heading back to the bad old days?
CHAPTER 5 APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Definitions
- Relevant readings
- Future readings
- Relevant links
- Datamonitor Financial Services Consulting
- SPP writing team
- How to contact experts in your industry
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