Introduction
With annual revenues of over $2.6 billion in 2004, and a compound annual growth rate of 36.7% since 2002, the ADHD market is one of the most rapidly growing CNS markets. This growth is primarily attributed to the launches of several novel, once-daily ADHD therapies initially in the US and then periodically across the remaining major markets since 2000.
Scope of this report
- Overview of current market including profiles of key brands and key events impacting each brand during 2004-2005
- Assessment of current and future opportunities and threats in the ADHD market across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
- Global sales for leading ADHD products from 2002-2004 are presented, with projections for future performance up to 2015
- In-depth discussion of assumptions and events used in forecast analysis
Research and analysis highlights
US revenue growth within the ADHD market follows a distinct annual cycle, with the highest revenue growth occurring in August and September, coinciding with the end of the school summer vacation. Manufacturers wishing to maximize revenue potential on drug launch should therefore take advantage of this period of high drug revenue growth.
Drugs licensed for the treatment of adult ADHD are driving growth in this sector of the market, and derive significantly greater revenue shares as compared to drugs that are used off-label. Datamonitor believes that now is an ideal time for manufacturers to gain approval for adult ADHD in the US, and enter this expanding market.
Strattera was the most rapidly growing drug in the US ADHD market with 2004 revenues of $632m, However, Q1 2005 revenues of the drug fell by 25.1% over Q4 2004, as a result of a product warning and other adverse market events. Nevertheless, Datamonitor forecasts that Strattera will bounce back and become market leader form 2007 onwards.
Key reasons to read this report
- Assess leading ADHD drugs and identify key success factors within this sector
- Understand key market drivers and predict the future performance of key compounds
- Benchmark pipeline ADHD drugs against currently marketed products and assess their future market potential
ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
- About the CNS pharmaceutical analysis team
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Objective of the analysis
- Datamonitor insight into the ADHD market
- Key metrics
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
- Market definition for this report
- The current ADHD market
- The major ADHD market players and franchises
- J&Js Concerta
- Shires Adderall franchise
- Novartiss methylphenidate franchises
- UCBs Metadate franchise
- Lillys Strattera
- Summary of major players and their vital statistics
- Strategic scoping and focus
CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS
- Current and future opportunities and threats in the ADHD market
- Global opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- US
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Japan
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
- France
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Germany
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Italy
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Spain
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
- UK
- Market overview
- Opportunities
- Threats
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS
- Assumptions and events
- 2004-05
- Revised AACAP guidelines recommend Strattera for first-line ADHD
- US approval of new 72mg Concerta dosage regimen
- FDA approval of Adderall XR for the treatment of adult ADHD
- Adderall XR sNDA submitted for adolescent ADHD
- Ongoing patent challenge to Adderall XR
- Launch of Concerta in France and Spain
- UK launch of Strattera
- Strattera labeled with bold product warning
- Adderall XR withdrawn from Canadian market
- Concerta become the US market leader
- Lilly predicts decline in Strattera revenues
- Launch of Strattera across the remaining EU countries
- Launch of Metadate CD across the remaining EU countries under the brand name Equasym XL
- Label changes for methylphenidate drugs
- US launch of Focalin XR
- Genericization of Concerta
- 2006
- US launch of SPD-503
- US launch of MTS
- US launch of Attenace
- Launch of generic Adderall XR
- 2007
- Launch of NRP-104
- Launch of SPD-465: Adderall XR2
- 2010
- Strattera launch in Japan
- SPD-503 will have little time to maximize revenues before genericization
- 2015
- Strattera patent expiry
- Focalin and Ritalin LA US patent expiries
CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES
- Adderall XR - damage limitation
- The future of J&Js ADHD franchise?
- J&Js CNS franchise on top, but set for decline
- J&Js ADHD franchise - where to next?
- A future without ADHD?
- Focus on cognition
- Strattera will become market leader in 2007 despite recent setbacks
- Stratteras product warning, significantly impacts revenues
- All-day reduction in symptomology, may help Strattera to bounce back
- Lilly - pushing the boundaries
- Stratteras revenues bounce back with the drug becoming market leader in 2007
- Licensed indications have driven growth in the adult ADHD market
- Promotion of adult ADHD by drug websites
- Ideal time to gain approval of adult ADHD in the US
- Adult ADHD - a no go in Europe at present time
- Seasonal factors should be considered at drug launch
- Implications for drug launch
APPENDIX A
- Bibliography
- Websites
- Journals and abstracts
APPENDIXB
- Report methodology
- Datamonitor forecast methodology
- Sales calculations
- About Datamonitor
List of Tables
- Table 1: Revenue forecast of ADHD drugs across the seven major markets, 2005-15
- Table 2: Revenues of ADHD drugs across the seven major markets, 2002-04
- Table 3: Revenues of ADHD drugs in the US, 2002-04
- Table 4: Revenues of ADHD drugs in Japan, 2002-04
- Table 5: Revenues of ADHD drugs in France, 2002-04
- Table 6: Revenues of ADHD drugs in Germany, 2002-04
- Table 7: Revenues of ADHD drugs in Spain, 2002-04
- Table 8: Revenues of ADHD drugs in the UK, 2002-04
- Table 9: J&Js US marketed CNS portfolio
- Table 10: J&Js CNS R&D pipeline, 2005
- Table 11: Child and adult revenues ($m) of ADHD drugs in the US market, 2001-04
- Table 12: Child and adult revenues ($m) of ADHD drugs in the EU and Japan, 2001-04
- Table 13: Strattera key facts
- Table 14: Key Strattera events, 2004-2005
- Table 15: Adderall and Adderall XR key facts
- Table 16: Key Adderall and Adderall XR events, 2004-2005
- Table 17: Concerta key facts
- Table 18: Key Concerta events, 2004-2005
- Table 19: Ritalin franchise key facts
- Table 20: Dexedrine and Dexedrine SR key facts
- Table 21: Dextrostat key facts
- Table 22: Focalin key facts
- Table 23: Key Focalin franchise events, 2004-2005
- Table 24: Metadate franchise key facts
- Table 25: Key Metadate franchise events, 2003-2005
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Revenues of currently branded stimulants, atomoxetine, generics and pipeline ADHD drugs, 2001-15
- Figure 2: Revenue market share of the leading branded ADHD drugs, 1999-2004
- Figure 3: Seven major market revenue forecast of J&Js ADHD franchise to 2015
- Figure 4: Seven major market revenue forecast of Shires ADHD franchise to 2015
- Figure 5: Seven major market revenue forecast of Novartis ADHD franchise to 2015
- Figure 6: Seven major market revenue forecast of UCBs ADHD franchise to 2015
- Figure 7: Seven major market revenue forecast of Lillys ADHD franchise to 2015.
- Figure 8: Revenue growth, market share and revenues of leading ADHD drugs across the seven major markets, 2003-04
- Figure 9: ADHD drug revenue market share of leading manufacturers, 2001-15
- Figure 10: ADHD drug revenues of leading manufacturers, 2001-15
- Figure 11: Key players in the ADHD market
- Figure 12: NICE method for measuring cost-effectiveness of drug treatment for ADHD
- Figure 13: Most cost-effective treatment of ADHD in the UK
- Figure 14: Shires damage limitation strategy for Adderall XR
- Figure 15: Shires on-line Adderall XR patient questionnaire
- Figure 16: Global quarterly revenues of Strattera since launch and key lifecycle events
- Figure 17: US revenues of the market-leading ADHD drugs, 2002-05
- Figure 18: Adult revenues ($m) of ADHD drugs in the US market, 2001-04
- Figure 19: Comparison of ADHD promotion of Strattera and Adderall XR home pages
- Figure 20: US drug revenues, 2001-04
- Figure 21: Monthly growth and decline of US drug revenues over time, 2001-04
- Figure 22: Revenue growth of ADHD drug form launch
医薬品
その他のカテゴリ
FAQ