欧州のガス・電力価格動向：2007年6月

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

The growing role of wholesale traded energy markets across Europe creates a greater need for players throughout the value chain to be aware of the latest market movements and developments. From the wellhead or power station gate to the end-user, volatility in the spot and forward price of power and gas is creating an increasingly challenging environment for all market participants.

Scope

• An examination of the wholesale gas price trends in Europe' s three key markets - the UK NBP, the Zeebrugge Hub and the Dutch TTF.
• An assessment of traded power prices in the UK, Belgian, Dutch, German and French wholesale power markets.
• Insight and analysis into the impact of wholesale markets on the wholesale / retail price interface.

Report Highlights

Bearish influences are continuing to impact on wholesale power prices

Greater interconnectivity is increasing price convergence in the wholesale gas markets

Retail price pressure has begun to diminish

Reasons to Purchase

• Establish the current level of wholesale and retail energy prices and the fundamental drivers behind movements in the traded value of gas and power.
• Understand how wholesale pricing impacts different facets of the value chain, identifying the potential to limit risk through hedging strategies.
• Forecast future developments in the traded price of gas and power in order to successfully take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.

Table of Contents

• DATAMONITOR VIEW
  • CATALYST
  • SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • This brief assesses key developments in Europe' s major wholesale energy markets
  • Prompt European wholesale power prices have continued on an upward trend in May
  • In common with the prompt part of the curve, European forward power prices have continued to firm
  • Belgian power prices have firmed in both the prompt and forward parts of the curve during May
  • After a weak start to the month, French power prices gained significant ground during May, particularly at the prompt end of the curve
  • Fears over possible plant operation problems over the summer have pulled up prompt German contracts
  • Market sentiment over plant outages over the summer have helped Dutch power prices to continue gaining ground throughout the curve
  • Although UK power prices have been in bullish mood in May, the price rises are of the magnitude seen elsewhere in Europe
  • European prompt gas prices enjoyed a bullish period during May
  • Longer term gas prices across Europe did not see the bullish sentiment that has characterised prompt contracts during May
  • Reduced gas imports from Norway impacted a considerable influence on short term UK gas prices during May
  • TTF prompt prices have tracked the NBP upwards during the month of May
  • Zeebrugge prices found their greatest degree of strength at the prompt end of the curve
  • Following a period of decline, European coal prices found a new bullish tone during May
  • Phase 2 credits have continued to gain ground in May, though the Phase 1 collapse has continued
  • Crude prices have showed a slight decline in June
  • This brief contains a number of industry standard terms
• APPENDIX
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  • Disclaimer
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: European baseload Month-Ahead power prices
    • Figure 2: European baseload Year-Ahead power prices
    • Figure 3: Belgian baseload power prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 4: French baseload power prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 5: German baseload power prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 6: Dutch baseload power prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 7: UK baseload power prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 8: European Day-Ahead wholesale gas prices
    • Figure 9: European Year-Ahead wholesale gas prices
    • Figure 10: NBP wholesale gas prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 11: TTF wholesale gas prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 12: Zeebrugge wholesale gas prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 13: European benchmark coal prices, various contract periods
    • Figure 14: European carbon emission allowance price, various contract periods
    • Figure 15: Brent (blend) crude oil prices