Abstract
Overview
Introduction
The growing role of wholesale traded energy markets across Europe creates a
greater need for players throughout the value chain to be aware of the latest
market movements and developments. From the wellhead or power station gate to
the end-user, volatility in the spot and forward price of power and gas is
creating an increasingly challenging environment for all market participants.
Scope
- An examination of the wholesale gas price trends in Europe' s three key
markets - the UK NBP, the Zeebrugge Hub and the Dutch TTF.
- An assessment of traded power prices in the UK, Belgian, Dutch, German and
French wholesale power markets.
- Insight and analysis into the impact of wholesale markets on the wholesale
/ retail price interface.
Report Highlights
Electrabel' s new plant build programme is set to bear fruit
The UK and Spain will lock horns with the US for Atlantic LNG
French new entrants face uphill struggle to break EDF' s stranglehold
Reasons to Purchase
- Establish the current level of wholesale and retail energy prices and the
fundamental drivers behind movements in the traded value of gas and power.
- Understand how wholesale pricing impacts different facets of the value
chain, identifying the potential to limit risk through hedging strategies.
- Forecast future developments in the traded price of gas and power in order
to successfully take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- Electrabel' s new plant build program is set to bear fruit
- Electrabel new plant builds are astutely spread across NW Europe
- Gas plant offers a strong seasonal hedge in Electrabel' s heartland
- Electrabel' s investment in Dutch generation capacity is prudent
- Weaker German generation spreads still point toward coal builds
- Hydro stock builds will play a secondary role in carbon price dynamics
- Western Europe' s hydro outlook has notably improved in 2007
- Recovering Spanish reserves offer downside to carbon prices
- EU policy makers will continue to drive carbon market sentiment
- The UK and Spain will lock horns with the US for Atlantic LNG
- Rising LNG usage will inevitably converge UK and US gas prices
- Spain still has a significant role to play in the Atlantic LNG market
- French new entrants face uphill struggle to break EDF' s stranglehold
- EU investigates regulated French tariffs as a barrier to competition
- Poweo mounts customer acquisition challenge as market opens
- Poweo faces an uphill struggle to break French customer loyalty
- French industry enjoys an energy price advantage over its peers
- French industrial supply offers little or no margin to new entrants
- European gas storage outlook is extremely positive ahead of the winter
- UK storage injections are significantly ahead of the game
- French stocks appear healthy in the event of a tight UK winter
- Northwest European wholesale power prices continue to plateau
- Belgian prices remain strong, despite a drop in quarterly contracts
- Short and longer-term French baseload price trends diverge
- German near curve prices decline as heat wave fails to materialize
- Dutch power prices characteristically track the German market
- UK power traders indifferent to severe weather warnings
- Europe' s key wholesale gas markets gripped by summer lull
- Bearishness returns to the NBP after supply-side woes subside
- Dutch gas prices mirror bearishness sentiment at the NBP
- Belgian gas prices mirror movements at the influential NBP market
- APPENDIX
- This brief builds upon Datamonitor' s extensive pricing proposition
- Glossary
- This brief contains a number of industry standard terms
- Our analysis builds on other sources to provide greater insight
- Further Reading
- Extended Methodology
- We assess the profitability of fossil fuel plants across northwest Europe
- Our bespoke services can be tailored to your specific needs
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Electrabel' s upstream investments are sensibly hedged to
secure generation margin across varying markets and different fuel types
- Figure 2: Belgian coal plants will ultimately deliver more
profitability than gas generation in Electrabel' s incumbent power market
- Figure 3: While coal-fired plants prove the most profitable generation
type in the Netherlands, gas also delivers positive margins out to 2010
- Figure 4: German generation margins are lower than in the Benelux
markets, but dark spreads maintain relative attractiveness over gas
- Figure 5: Western Europe' s key hydro stocks have all notably improved
on their H1 2006 position
- Figure 6: French and Nordic reservoir levels follow a distinct
pattern, while Spanish hydro stocks continue to recover from draught
conditions
- Figure 7: National Allocation Plans exert a far stronger influence on
the value of carbon compared to short-term fundamentals such as weather
- Figure 8: Market fundamentals continue to drive sentiment during the
peak demand winter period, but summer price convergence is likely
- Figure 9: Although long-term bookings dominate Spanish LNG
allocations, significant terminal capacity is available for ' spot' cargoes
- Figure 10: In France, the propensity to switch power supplier in both
industry and households is among the lowest in Europe
- Figure 11: Liberalized power markets have seen retail prices climb
above regulated tariffs as rising commodity prices are fully passed through
- Figure 12: Gross margin is non-existent for entrants securing forward
power in France, before additional delivery costs are even considered
- Figure 13: With 2005/06 injection trends implying Rough will be full
by Aug-07, it will only remain for the UK' s medium-sized facilities to be
filled
- Figure 14: Excess stored gas in the import-dependent French market
could be exported via the Interconnector in the event of a cold UK winter
- Figure 15: Northwest European wholesale power prices continue to
plateau
- Figure 16: Belgian annual and monthly forward baseload power prices
held firm in June 07, while the quarterly contract begins to slip back
- Figure 17: French near curve power prices come under downward pressure
from mild seasonal fundamentals, but the far curve remains bullish
- Figure 18: Quarter ahead German baseload contracts witnessed a steep
decline as trader expectations of a summer heat wave subsided
- Figure 19: The Dutch power market mirrored neighboring German prices,
witnessing losses In the month ahead and year ahead contracts
- Figure 20: UK near and far power curve trends diverged only marginally
in Jun-07, as severe flooding failed to significantly impact market
sentiment
- Figure 21: NW Europe gas markets reversed recent gains across the board
- Figure 22: UK wholesale gas prices returned to their underlying
downward trend in June 2007 after unplanned North Sea outage fears
dispersed
- Figure 23: The TTF gas market slipped downwards as both the prompt and
far curve retraced the bullishness seen in May 2007
- Figure 24: The Bacton-Zeebrugge Interconnector ensures strong price
linkage between the EU' s largest wholesale gas market and Belgium
- Figure 25: Energy pricing proposition
- Figure 26: Generation spread methodology
エネルギー
その他のカテゴリ
FAQ