オーストラリアの新規住宅購入者と住宅ローン市場

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

Despite record lack of affordability, first home buyers are gradually returning to the mortgage market. Mortgage providers have launched a range of products in order to target them better. Still, catering to first home buyers remains a difficult but important task.

Scope

• This report analyses data to understand first home buyers in the context of the mortgage market in Australia.
• This report analyses products already in the market for first home buyers in Australia, as well as discussing new products.
• The report concludes with forecasts of first home buyer lending commitments to 2011.

Report Highlights

In terms of value, lending commitments to first home buyers of owner-occupied housing have increased from AUD$17.1 billion in 2003 to AUD$29.2 billion in 2006. This corresponds to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6%.

One of the main target segments for shared equity mortgages are first home buyers struggling with lack of affordability, as monthly mortgage repayments will be lower than if borrowing for a property with a small deposit.

It is Datamonitor' s opinion that supply side solutions are likely to be most important in improving housing affordability, given that the current tight housing supply translates higher demand into higher prices.

Reasons to Purchase

• Detailed analysis on lending commitments in Australia.
• Detailed analysis of mortgages available to first home buyers including products that are to be launched in 2007.
• Provides forecasts of first home buyer lending commitments for Australia up to 2011.

Table of Contents

• Overview
  • Catalyst
  • Summary
• Executive Summary
  • Market context of first home buyers in Australia
    • First home buyers have been returning to the mortgage market since a low point in 2003
    • Slowing house price growth since 2003 has facilitated first home buyers' return to the market
    • Housing affordability continues to present a challenge to first home buyers
    • There are a number of Government initiatives aimed at helping first home buyers
  • Competition and products for first home buyers in Australia
    • Mortgages requiring little or no deposit have become a common occurrence in the market
      • 100% LVR products have become more common
      • Some products have an LVR over 100%
      • High LVR products have enjoyed strong growth in recent years
    • Honeymoon rate mortgages have become less popular among first home buyers
      • There are currently a large number of lenders that offer honeymoon rate mortgages
      • Although still ubiquitous, honeymoon products have become less popular for first home buyers
    • An increasing number of products based on family support are becoming available
      • These products have become more popular in recent years
      • The five major Australian banks are well positioned to offer family support options
      • Some smaller banks and non-bank lenders offer family support mortgages
    • Shared equity mortgages offer a new solution to first home buyers
      • Shared equity mortgages reduce monthly payments at the expense of future capital gains
      • Adelaide Bank was the first to launch a private sector shared equity mortgage product
      • In March 2007 St. George launched a similar product partnering with property developer Australand
      • Public perception will be key in determining the future success of shared equity mortgages
    • There have been a number of other developments in the first home buyers mortgage market
      • Professional package products are now used by many mortgagors
      • Longer loan terms are being offered
  • The future role of first home buyers in the Australian mortgage market
    • In Datamonitor' s view, first home buyers will continue to return to the market
      • Total lending commitments will increase to AUD$316.3 billion in 2011
      • First home buyers' share of owner-occupier lending commitments will increase to 20.5% by 2011
    • The lack of affordability for first home buyers is nevertheless a long-term issue
• Table of Contents
• Table of figures
• Table of tables
• Market context of first home buyers in Australia
  • First home buyers are an important customer base for lenders
    • First home buyers are an important part of the housing and mortgage markets
    • First home buyers are also an important upsell opportunity
  • First home buyers are returning to the mortgage market after a number of years
    • 2003 was a low point for first home buyer participation in the mortgage market
    • Since 2003, first home buyers have gradually been re-entering the mortgage market
      • A number of factors can account for the re-emergence of first home buyers
    • The average loan size of first home buyers is now greater than other borrowers
      • The historic gap in loan size has reversed in most states and territories over the last five years
  • Housing affordability continues to present a challenge to first home buyers
    • Tight housing supply and interest rate rises have made for record low levels of affordability
    • Even innovative mortgages cannot overcome a lack of affordability
  • There are a number of Government initiatives aimed at helping first home buyers
    • The First Home Owner Grant was introduced in 2000 but ultimately contributes to higher house prices
    • All states and territories have some form of Stamp Duty concessions, but they have little long-term effect
    • A couple of new suggestions have been made that could affect first home buyers to a greater degree
      • The Opposition has suggested changes to investor taxation and negative gearing
      • Many feel that reform of local Government taxation and land releases is necessary
• Competition and products for first home buyers in Australia
  • There is now a wide range of products that are targeted at first home buyers
    • Lenders have modified their product offerings to serve the needs of first home buyers
  • Mortgages requiring little or no deposit have become a common occurrence in the market
    • First home buyers now have smaller average deposit sizes
    • As a result, a significant number of lenders offer high loan-to-value ratio mortgages
      • Three of the five largest Australian banks now offer 100% LVR mortgages
      • Many non-bank lenders offer 100% LVR products
      • Some products have an LVR over 100%
    • High LVR products have enjoyed strong growth in recent years
      • On a side note, high LVR products are entering the mortgage securitization market
    • Because of the higher risk they carry, such products nonetheless need to be priced and managed carefully
      • This risk is particularly important given the crisis of sub-prime mortgage lending in the US
  • Honeymoon rate mortgages have become less popular among first home buyers
    • Honeymoon rate mortgages offer a low introductory rate at the beginning stages of the mortgage term
    • There are currently a large number of lenders that offer honeymoon rate mortgages
    • Although still ubiquitous, honeymoon products have become less popular for first home buyers
    • These mortgages could be risky in an environment of rising interest rates, as the situation in the US demonstrates
  • An increasing number of products based on family support are becoming available
    • Products based on family support use the accumulated property equity of family members or friends
    • These products have become more popular in recent years
    • The five major Australian banks are well positioned to offer family support options
      • All five major Australian banks now offer a family guarantee option on their mortgage products
    • Some smaller banks and non-bank lenders offer family support mortgages
    • Mortgages based on family support nevertheless continue to cause concern
  • Shared equity mortgages offer a new solution to first home buyers
    • The Government has supported the development of shared equity mortgages
    • The private market has started offering shared equity mortgages
      • Adelaide Bank was the first to launch a private sector shared equity mortgage product
      • In March 2007 St.George launched a similar product partnering with property developer Australand
    • Nevertheless, shared equity mortgages pose a number of drawbacks
      • Public perception will therefore be key in determining the future success of shared equity mortgages
    • Shared equity mortgages are also making a slow comeback in the UK mortgage market
    • Joint mortgages are a related form of product being introduced in the UK
  • There have been a number of other first home buyer mortgage developments
    • Professional package products are becoming more common among first home buyers
    • Longer loan terms are being offered
• The future role of first home buyers in the Australian mortgage market
  • In Datamonitor' s view, first home buyers will continue to return to the market
    • Datamonitor uses its in-house model to forecast the mortgage market and first home buyers' role in it
    • Total lending commitments will increase to AUD$316.3 billion in 2011
    • First home buyers' share of owner-occupier lending commitments will increase to 20.5% by 2011
  • The lack of affordability for first home buyers is nevertheless a long-term issue
    • Australian first home buyers will have to be more open about location
    • The Government must do more and will be under pressure to alleviate first home buyers' difficulties
    • Australian attitudes must catch up with product development in the mortgage market
    • Ultimately, lenders must strike a delicate balance
• APPENDIX
  • Supplementary data
  • Methodology
  • Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: A large number of lenders offer honeymoon rate mortgage products, July 2007
    • Table 2: Datamonitor uses projections of macroeconomic variables to forecast total lending commitments, 2006-2011
    • Table 3: Datamonitor' s forecasts of first home buyer and total owner-occupier lending commitments, 2007-2011
    • Table 4: First home buyer proportion of owner-occupier lending commitments, 1992-2006
    • Table 5: Price index of established homes in capital cities, March 2002-March 2007
    • Table 6: Total lending commitments split by owner-occupier and investment lending, 1992-2006
    • Table 7: Lending commitments for owner-occupiers split by first home buyers and non-first home buyers, 1992-2006
    • Table 8: Average loan size for first home buyer and non-first home buyer owner-occupiers, 1992-2006
    • Table 9: Average amount lent to first home buyer owner-occupiers in excess of non-first home buyer owner-occupiers, 2006
    • Table 10: Affordability index for first home buyers, December 1992-December 2006
    • Table 11: Datamonitor' s forecasts for total lending commitments, 1992-2011
    • Table 12: Datamonitor forecasts of first home buyer lending commitments, 1992-2011
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: In 2003 first home buyers accounted for just 13.7% of owner-occupier lending commitments, but they have made a slight comeback since, 1992-2006
    • Figure 2: Lending commitments are forecasted to increase to AUD$316.3 billion in 2011, 1992-2011
    • Figure 3: First home buyers' share of owner-occupier lending commitments will increase to 20.5% in 2011, 1992-2011
    • Figure 4: In 2003 first home buyers accounted for just 13.7% of owner-occupier lending commitments, 1992-2006
    • Figure 5: First home buyers' proportion of owner-occupier lending commitments has grown since 2003, 1992-2006
    • Figure 6: Since 2003, house price growth has been relatively flat, March 2002-March 2007
    • Figure 7: Owner-occupier lending has increased since 2003 and investment property lending has leveled off, 1992-2006
    • Figure 8: First home buyer owner-occupiers now have a higher average loan size than non-first home buyer borrowers, 1992-2006
    • Figure 9: The average loan size of FHBs is now greater than that of non-FHBs in most Australian states and territories, 2006
    • Figure 10: First home buyer owner-occupier average loan size has grown particularly strongly in Tasmania since 2003, January 1992-April 2007
    • Figure 11: Housing affordability for first home buyers has reached a low point, December 1992-December 2006
    • Figure 12: By having a family member guarantee part of a mortgage, the LVR can be reduced and lenders mortgage insurance avoided, 2007
    • Figure 13: The Adelaide Bank Equity Finance Mortgage (EFM) entitles lenders to a portion of eventual capital gains, 2007
    • Figure 14: Datamonitor forecasts total lending commitments to increase to AUD$316.3 billion in 2011, 1992-2011
    • Figure 15: First home buyers share of owner-occupier lending commitments will increase to 20.5% by 2011, 1992-2011