ドイツの住宅ローン市場（市場ガイド）

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

The level of gross advances in the German residential mortgage market has fluctuated in recent years. What are the current issues facing this market? How are housing policies affecting its performance? Who are the biggest lenders? What will be the size of the sector in the next five years? This report provides the answers.

Scope

• Covers the residential mortgage market.
• Provides market sizing data in terms of gross advances and balances outstanding.
• Provides competitor market share for the top five players in terms of balances outstanding.
• Looks at housing policies, regulations and issues in the mortgage market.

Report Highlights

The significant fall in gross advances between 2004 and 2005 means that new lending in the German mortgage market has contracted in the last five years at a CAGR of -7.7%.

The housing market, like the economy, has remained flat in recent years. With house prices flat or falling for almost a decade, there has been little or no additional housing equity to push up personal consumption or to enable sustained equity withdrawals by owner-occupiers or landlords.

Germany' s mortgage debt ratio as a percentage of GDP stood at 51.3% at the end of 2006. This is despite the low level of owner-occupation seen in Germany.

Reasons to Purchase

• Learn how the German residential mortgage market has developed over the last five years.
• Understand the recent developments in the mortgage market in terms of regulations and competitor shares.
• Find out Datamonitor' s opinion on the future performance of the German residential mortgage market over the next five years and its future prospects.

Table of Contents

• Overview
  • Catalyst
  • Summary
• Executive Summary
  • Market size
  • Market forecasts
  • Key issues
  • Key market players
• Table of Contents
• Table of figures
• Table of tables
• Market Context
  • Country overview
    • Demographics data on a selection of major western European countries
      • Population
      • Economy
    • Housing market
      • Housing stock
      • House prices
  • Government housing policies
    • Social housing in Germany
      • Privatization of housing in the east has been slow
    • Overbuilding has led to an oversupply of housing in many areas of Germany
    • The German government has used grants and subsidies to boost homeownership
  • Market data
    • Mortgage interest rates
    • Market size
      • Balances outstanding
      • Germany has a high mortgage debt ratio compared to GDP
      • Gross advances
      • Product lines
  • Market structure
    • Categories of Banks
      • Private commercial banks
      • Sparkassen
      • Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken
    • Mortgage market structure
      • Market share by type of player
      • Funding
      • Distribution
  • Regulatory environment
    • Industry regulators
      • Bundesbank
      • The BaFin
    • Industry associations
      • Zentraler Kreditausschuss (ZKA)
      • The DSGV
      • Bundesverband deutscher Banken (German Bankers Association)
      • The BVR
      • The VöB
      • Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (VDP)
      • Verband der privaten Bausparkassen
    • Other noteworthy organizations
      • Ver.di
    • Credit bureaus
    • Repossession
    • Regulatory issues and developments in the mortgage market
      • The birth of an integrated European mortgage market is still very far off
      • Basel II will mean a number of changes for lenders
      • National mortgage-related reform
  • Key issues in the mortgage market
• Competitor and Product Overview
  • Top five mortgage lenders
    • Market share by balances outstanding
  • Product analysis
    • There are two forms of property financing in Germany
      • The Bauspar system explained
    • Typical product characteristics
• Market Forecasts
  • Forecasting gross advances
    • Datamonitor forecasts a steady rise of mortgage gross advances in Germany
  • Future prospects
    • Market attractiveness
    • Market inhibitors
• APPENDIX
  • Supplementary data
    • Tables relating to Chapter 2: Market context
  • Definitions
    • AAGR
    • Balances outstanding
    • CAGR
    • Fixed-rate mortgage
    • Gross advances
    • Loan-to-value (LTV)
    • Mortgage intermediary
    • Remortgaging
    • Tied agent
    • Unemployment rate
    • Variable mortgage
  • Research methodology
  • Further reading
    • European Mortgages
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Total population across major western European countries, 2002-06
    • Table 2: GDP at current rates across major western European countries, 2002-06, (€bn)
    • Table 3: GDP per capita at current rates across major western European countries, 2002-06, (€)
    • Table 4: GDP growth rates across major western European countries, 2002-06, (%)
    • Table 5: GDP composition by sector across major western European countries, 2006, (%)
    • Table 6: Inflation across major European countries, 2002-06, (%)
    • Table 7: Unemployment rates across major western European countries, 2002-06, (%)
    • Table 8: The age of German dwelling stock, 2002
    • Table 9: Residential mortgage balances outstanding in Germany compared to GDP of selected European countries, 2006
    • Table 10: Market share of top five competitors in the German residential mortgage market in balances outstanding, 2005-06, (€m)
    • Table 11: Forecast of mortgage gross advances in Germany, 2006-11f, (€m)
    • Table 12: Number of dwellings in Germany, 2001-05, (000s)
    • Table 13: House price growth in Germany, 2003-06
    • Table 14: Residential mortgage balances outstanding in Germany, 2002-06, (€m)
    • Table 15: Residential mortgage gross advances in Germany, 2002-06, (€m)
    • Table 16: Net lending in Germany, 2002-06, (€m)
    • Table 17: Typical mortgage interest rates in Germany, Q3 2004-Q4 2006, (%)
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Gross advances have been falling in Germany, 2002-06
    • Figure 2: Mortgage gross advances in Germany are predicted to rise steadily, 2006-11f
    • Figure 3: Sparkassen have the largest market share of the mortgage market in Germany, 2005-06
    • Figure 4: A snapshot of Germany' s key statistics, 2006
    • Figure 5: Germany' s housing stock stood at 39.6 million in 2005, 2001-05
    • Figure 6: Owner-occupation is relatively low in Germany, 2002
    • Figure 7: House price growth remains weak in Germany, 2003-06
    • Figure 8: Typical mortgage interest rates fell in Germany to 4.64% in Q4 2006
    • Figure 9: Residential mortgage balances outstanding in Germany have remained almost level in recent years, 2002-06
    • Figure 10: Net lending stood at €21.2 billion in 2006, 2002-06
    • Figure 11: Gross advances have been falling in Germany, 2002-06
    • Figure 12: The three pillars of German banking, 2007
    • Figure 13: Banking groups in the three pillars, 2007
    • Figure 14: The savings banks and mortgage banks dominate the residential mortgage market in Germany, 2002
    • Figure 15: The majority of residential mortgages in Germany are distributed via the banks branch networks, 2001
    • Figure 16: Regulatory overview of Germany, 2007
    • Figure 17: Range of services of the VDP, 2007
    • Figure 18: Sparkassen have the largest market share of the mortgage market in Germany, 2005-06
    • Figure 19: Mortgage gross advances in Germany are predicted to rise steadily, 2006-11f