世界の貯蓄・投資市場の見通し

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

There are conflicting views among wealth managers and economists, as well as in the media, about the extent and duration of sub-prime mortgage defaults and the resulting credit squeeze. Datamonitor predicts that the impact on financial services will be significant, and will last through 2009. We have produced a series of reports to identify the strategies to help them insulate their revenues.

Scope

• Introduces Datamonitor' s detailed analysis of the global investment markets through 2011;
• identifies the products and services that will keep and/or attract clients in today' s market, including examples of the companies launching them;
• assesses the smart strategies around marketing, communications and product development.

Report Highlights

Datamonitor forecasts that US stock markets will decline in 2008 and 2009, and that the rest of the world' s stock markets will be impacted-both because a US stock market decline will trigger sell-offs, and because the US economy is inextricably linked with the rest of the world, through trade, and through dollar-pegged currencies.

Despite competition from alternative instruments, deposits will continue to dominate retail savings and investments portfolios and, in the current climate, opportunities for banks will abound. In the UK, following a slight proportional decline in 2007, deposits will account for half of all retail savings and investments in 2008.

Already, there are indications that there has been some easing of self-imposed restrictions on interbank lending. Astute consumers will take note of these developments and look for opportunities to lock up higher rates.

Reasons to Purchase

• Learn what the global investment markets have in store for savings providers through 2009, and why.
• Identify the strategies that will keep your customers through concrete examples of peers that are implementing those strategies already.
• Identify the best products and services to launch, or re-launch, in today' s market, and those that will best position you during the recovery in 2010

Table of Contents

• DATAMONITOR VIEW
  • CATALYST
  • SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • Datamonitor believes that 2008-09 will be characterized by struggling economies worldwide
    • Rising interest rates, excessive borrowing and negative savings rates have combined in a perfect storm that will shake most of the world' s economies
    • The widespread securitization of loans will compound this problem
    • Consumers were not alone in overextending themselves; state debt servicing is up against budget, while tax revenues are sharply down, which may signal a muni bond crisis ahead
    • The US economy is not healthy enough to ' expand' itself out of these conditions
    • Foreign direct investment may also boost the economy; unfortunately foreign investors have run for the hills
    • A continued Treasury sell-off may further depress the dollar and, at worst, force interest rate hikes
    • Another major terrorist attack in the US will destabilize the economy further
    • Market capitalization, to varying degrees, will fall worldwide as US stock markets continue their jitters
  • With consumers seeking safe havens, banks will compete fiercely to secure share of wallet
    • Inter-bank rivalry will be exacerbated by competition from alternative savings and investments providers
  • In key economies, savings deposits will hold their own against alternative vehicles
• DURING THE DOWNTURN, THE RACE WILL BE TO THE SWIFT; A FOCUSED EFFORT WILL YIELD RESULTS IN THE RECOVERY
  • Early strategies must focus on maintaining rate parity
    • Customers will be keen to optimize tax-free savings
    • Online savings accounts and money market accounts will provide quick wins
    • Providers operating with downsized budgets can optimize effectiveness through focused and targeted marketing
  • Banks that can harness investments in customer relationship management will optimize the opportunities that an expanded customer base offers
    • Deepening and expanding customer ties will be key
  • Customers are more likely to reward those providers who offer innovative solutions for improving their overall financial position
    • During the downturn, despite the influx into savings products, consumers will also be dealing with debt
    • Exchange rate volatility presents opportunities for gains
  • As stock markets begin to recover, the trick will be to hold on to savings customers
    • Falling interest rates will provide new opportunities for banks
• APPENDIX
  • Definitions
    • Capital protected product
    • Certificate of deposit (CD)
    • Customer relationship management (CRM)
    • Fixed income annuity
    • Fixed income instruments
    • ISA
    • Offset account
    • Structured product
    • Sweep account
    • Whole life insurance
  • Methodology
  • Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: General obligation and revenue muni yields have increased in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have decreased, indicating a shift from munis to Treasuries
    • Figure 2: The US has run a trade deficit since 2001
    • Figure 3: US dollar exchange rates have fallen against the European currencies since the last market downturn
    • Figure 4: Deposits as a % of retail savings & investments, UK, US, China, India, 2002-11