感染症の概要

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

A total of 11 companies make up the top five across each of the four ID sectors, their core competencies ranging from a single disease area to generics prowess, producing a comprehensive portfolio to providing a specific offerings corresponding to highest unmet need. This report characterises the key players in each sector, and their approach to maximising their returns from a pressurised sector.

Scope

• An inter and intra-sector overview of the four major components of the chemotherapeutic anti-infectives market in Japan, the US, and M5EU
• Disease backgrounds for each sector, drawing attention to the key clinical issues and unmet needs that shape commercial strategies for success
• Market size, structure, brand and company orientation by sector
• Portfolio analysis of the leading players by sector, highlighting winning tactics and strategies in portfolio management

Report Highlights

• 10 players in infectious disease account for two thirds of 7 major market chemotherapeutic anti-infective sales by value, but just one third by volume. However, as growth rates for the $38bn have fallen over the 2005-06 period, these companies have, collectively, been worst hit - leading to a need for strategic re-evaluations for some players.
• This has placed an increased emphasis on high value niches of the market, and the need for effective tactics to ensure revenue loss minimisation (including, for example, OTC leveraging), line extension (reformulation and own generic production) and product succession in different measures.
• Other approaches have included minimising exposure to an anticipated continued shrinkage in the infectious disease market through scaling back infectious disease oriented operations altogether, focusing in on either areas considered to offer highest growth, or securing an exclusive grasp of a particular niche.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand the clinical and commercial characteristics and priorities for the major anti-infectives markets across Japan, the US and M5EU
• Identify the elements of strategies that have either kept players at the top of their field or failed to facilitate growth
• Understand how these businesses and strategies relate to your interest in the market, and how to position your products and services accordingly

Table of Contents

• ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
  • About the Infectious & Respiratory Disease pharmaceutical analysis team
• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Scope of the analysis
  • Datamonitor insight into the Infectious Disease market
  • Related reports
  • Upcoming reports
• CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITIONS
  • Anatomical Therapeutic Classifications
    • Antibacterials
    • Antifungals
    • Antivirals excluding HIV
    • HIV
  • Geographic coverage
  • License status
• CHAPTER 3 BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW
  • Infectious Disease market performance
    • Volume sales are showing a nominal decline in both the medium and short term
    • Volume sales are relatively low by comparison to other ATCs
    • Sharp decline in value growth
  • Infectious Disease sector comparison
    • Sector key metrics
    • Market attractiveness
    • Leading molecules
  • Top 10 company involvement
    • Market leader performance and portfolio composition
    • Sector reliance
    • Geographic orientation
• CHAPTER 4 ANTIBACTERIALS
  • Disease background
    • Pathogen and pathogen type
    • Antibiotic classes
      • Penicillins
      • Cephalosporins
      • Fluoroquinolones
      • Macrolides and ketolides
      • Other significant classes
    • Site of infection
    • Hospital versus community markets
  • Commercial analysis
    • Market size and structure
    • Geographic focus
    • Brand and company focus
    • Top five company analysis
      • Pfizer - success through accession, but will the formula work again?
      • Johnson & Johnson - cornering the market ahead of time
      • Abbott - will the last one out, turn off the lights?
      • Novartis - the best of both worlds: mixing high value brands with a generic assault
      • Sanofi-Aventis - what will you be remembered for: Tavanic and Claforan, or Synercid and Ketek?
    • Key portfolio management strategies - Antibiotics: Pfizer
      • Softening the blow of Zithromax
      • Zyvox and Zeven: creating a unified front
• CHAPTER 5 ANTIFUNGALS
  • Disease background
    • Unmet need - driving product development of premium products
    • Changing patient populations
      • Transplant patients
      • Cancer
      • HIV
      • Children and neonates
    • The antifungal drug explosion
      • Class overviews
    • The shifting spectrum of causative pathogens
      • Linking patients to pathogens
      • From Candida to Aspergillus and beyond - changing fungal epidemiology
    • Diagnostic capabilities
  • Commercial analysis
    • Market size and structure
      • J2A0 and Azole market devaluation pulls market down
      • Echinocandins - a price war beckons
      • Polyenes - liposomal formulations sidelined
      • Others
    • Geographic focus
    • Brand and company focus
    • Top five company analysis
      • Novartis - one hit wonder?
      • Pfizer - the best of the rest
      • Merck & Co - the Cancidas honeymoon is over
      • Johnson & Johnson - let down by licensing opportunities?
      • Astellas Pharma - a simple value proposition in a costly market
• CHAPTER 6 ANTIVIRALS
  • Disease background
    • Hepatitis
      • HCV management
      • HBV management
    • Respiratory viruses
      • Influenza
      • Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
    • HSV, CMV and similar viruses
      • Herpes simplex virus (HSV)
      • Varicella zoster virus (VZV)
      • Cytomegalovirus (CMV)
  • Commercial analysis
    • Market size and structure
      • Hepatitis
      • Respiratory viruses
      • HSV, CMV and similar viruses
    • Geographic focus
      • US
      • M5EU
      • Japan
    • Brand and company focus
    • Top five company analysis
      • GSK - opting for a biological future
      • Roche - the need for sector dominance
      • Schering-Plough - back-footed, but fighting on
      • Novartis - would generics be a better option?
      • Gilead - can leveraging portfolios yield sustainable growth?
• CHAPTER 7 HIV
  • Disease background
    • Patient population
    • Drug class overviews
      • Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors
      • Non-nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors
      • Protease inhibitors
      • Entry inhibitors
  • Commercial analysis
    • Market size and structure
    • Geographic focus
    • Brand and company focus
    • Top five HIV company analysis
      • GSK - a behemoth with an ageing proposition
      • Gilead - young turk or smooth operator?
      • BMS - all about timing
      • Abbott - can in-licensing be relied on?
      • Roche - going for broke
  • Key portfolio management strategies - HIV FDC Case Study
    • GSK - plugging the pipeline let-down gap
    • Gilead - keeping options open - balancing FDCs with new product
    • BMS - what is there to lose?
    • FDCs from generics - Waiting in the wings
• BIBLIOGRAPHY
  • Literature
  • Websites and similar
  • Other sources
  • Datamonitor sources
• APPENDIX A
• CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX B
  • About Datamonitor
    • About Datamonitor Healthcare
  • About the Infectious & Respiratory Disease analysis team
    • Key therapy team members
      • Holger Rovini, Head of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases
    • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Key dynamics - Infectious Disease versus other key therapeutic sectors, 7MM, 2002-06
    • Table 2: Infectious disease sector dynamic comparisons - key volume and value metrics, 7MM, 2002-06
    • Table 3: Market attractiveness - product, company and generic dominance by sector, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 4: Top selling molecules across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 5: Top 10 companies by revenue across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 6: Top 10 company portfolio bias - percentage value sales across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 7: Regional revenues - top 10 companies, rest of market and total market sales across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 8: Examples of clinically significant pathogens by Gram stain
    • Table 9: Key pathogens targeted by marketed or developmental vaccines
    • Table 10: Cephalosporins' spectrum of activity by generation
    • Table 11: Antibiotic class sales by volume and value, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 12: Late-stage pipeline antibiotic products by trial phase, indication and grouping, 2007
    • Table 13: Top five Antibacterial companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Table 14: Top five antibacterial companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Table 15: Pfizer SWOT analysis for the antibacterials market
    • Table 16: Pfizer antibiotics portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 17: Johnson & Johnson SWOT analysis for the antibacterials market
    • Table 18: Johnson & Johnson antibiotics portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 19: Abbott SWOT analysis for the antibacterials market
    • Table 20: Abbott antibiotics portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 21: Novartis SWOT analysis for the antibacterials market
    • Table 22: Novartis antibiotics portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 23: Sanofi-Aventis SWOT analysis for the antibacterials market
    • Table 24: Sanofi-Aventis antibiotics portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 25: Systemic antifungals versus other antifungal sales, 2006
    • Table 26: Mortality due to invasive mycoses
    • Table 27: Nosocomial bloodstream infection organism distribution in the US, 2004
    • Table 28: Predominant and emerging opportunistic fungal pathogens of clinical significance, 2007
    • Table 29: Types of immunocompromise, causes and associated fungal pathogens
    • Table 30: Indexed 7MM antifungal sales by ATC - indexed volume and value sales, 2002-06, actual sales (SUm and $m) 2006, and CAGR (%) 2002-06
    • Table 31: Indexed 7MM J2A0 ATC antifungal sales by class - Indexed volume and value sales, 2002-06, actual sales (SUm and $m) 2006, and CAGR 2002-06%
    • Table 32: 7MM antifungal market key volume and value sales dynamics by region - US, M5EU, Japan, 2002-06
    • Table 33: Top five Antifungal companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Table 34: Top five antifungal companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Table 35: Novartis SWOT analysis for the antifungals market
    • Table 36: Novartis antifungals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 37: Pfizer SWOT analysis for the antifungals market
    • Table 38: Pfizer antifungals portfolio overview , 2002-06
    • Table 39: Merck & Co SWOT analysis for the antifungals market
    • Table 40: Merck & Co antifungals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 41: Johnson & Johnson SWOT analysis for the antifungals market
    • Table 42: Johnson & Johnson antifungals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 43: Astellas SWOT analysis for the antifungals market
    • Table 44: Astellas Pharma antifungals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 45: HCV - treatment options, 2007
    • Table 46: HBV - treatment options, 2007
    • Table 47: Populations targeted for influenza vaccination, US, 2003
    • Table 48: Marketed influenza antivirals, 7MM, 2007
    • Table 49: Marketed RSV antiviral
    • Table 50: The human herpesviruses (HHV) fall into three sub-families
    • Table 51: Marketed HSV antivirals, 7MM, 2007
    • Table 52: Marketed VZV antivirals, 7MM, 2007
    • Table 53: Marketed CMV antivirals, 7MM, 2007
    • Table 54: 7MM antiviral sales by subsector - HSV, CMV and similar, hepatitis, respiratory and other molecule sales dynamics by volume and value (%), 2002-06
    • Table 55: Indexed 7MM antivirals market by sector - hepatitis, HSV CMV and similar, respiratory and other antivirals, 2002-06 and CAGR
    • Table 56: 7MM indexed respiratory virus drug sales 2002-06
    • Table 57: 7MM antiviral sales by geographic region, 2002-06
    • Table 58: Top five antiviral companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market, 2002-06
    • Table 59: Top five antifungal companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Table 60: GSK SWOT analysis for the antivirals sector
    • Table 61: GSK antivirals portfolio overview
    • Table 62: Roche SWOT analysis for the antivirals sector
    • Table 63: Roche antivirals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 64: Ribavirin, interferons and pegylated interferons - milestones in the Schering Plough/Roche HCV battle
    • Table 65: Schering-Plough SWOT analysis for the antivirals sector
    • Table 66: Schering Plough antivirals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 67: Novartis SWOT analysis for the antivirals sector
    • Table 68: Novartis antivirals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 69: Gilead SWOT analysis for the antivirals sector
    • Table 70: Gilead antivirals portfolio overview, 2002-06
    • Table 71: Changing drivers of demand in HIV, 2007
    • Table 72: 7MM HIV sales by class and product line composition, 2006
    • Table 73: Regional HIV sales dynamics, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 74: Top five HIV companies by combined revenues versus rest of market, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 75: Top five HIV companies by company revenues versus rest of market, 7MM, 2006
    • Table 76: GSK SWOT analysis for the HIV market
    • Table 77: GSK - HIV portfolio overview, 2007
    • Table 78: Agenerase and Lexiva background
    • Table 79: Gilead SWOT analysis for the HIV market
    • Table 80: Gilead - HIV portfolio overview, 2007
    • Table 81: BMS SWOT analysis for the HIV market
    • Table 82: BMS - HIV portfolio overview, 2007
    • Table 83: Abbott SWOT analysis for the HIV market
    • Table 84: Abbott -HIV portfolio overview, 2007
    • Table 85: Roche SWOT analysis for the HIV market
    • Table 86: Roche - HIV portfolio overview, 2007
    • Table 87: FDCs and original brands - overlaps in market exclusivity and potential revenue extension periods, 2007
    • Table 88: HIV FDCs currently available in India
    • Table 89: Antiviral market subdivisions by molecule
    • Table 90: US antiviral volume and value sales dynamics by therapeutic area
    • Table 91: M5EU antiviral volume and value sales dynamics by therapeutic area
    • Table 92: Japan antiviral volume and value sales dynamics by therapeutic area
    • Table 93: Hepatitis antiviral volume and value sales dynamics by geographic area
    • Table 94: HSV, CMV and similar antivirals volume and value sales dynamics by geographic area
    • Table 95: Respiratory antivirals volume and value sales dynamics by geographic area
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Key dynamics - Infectious disease versus other key therapeutic sectors, 7MM, 2002-06
    • Figure 2: Infectious disease overview - key volume and value sales dynamics by sector, 7MM, 2002-06
    • Figure 3: Infectious disease overview - market attractiveness by sector, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 4: Leading original and branded molecule sales versus rest of market, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 5: Top 10 companies by revenue across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 6: Top 10 players' infectious disease portfolio characteristics, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 7: Top 10 company portfolio sector bias across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 8: Top 10 players - Portfolio bias, performance and market attractiveness, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 9: Regional revenues - top 10 companies, rest of market and total market sales across the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV sectors, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 10: Antibiotic class sales by volume and value, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 11: Defining the market - acquisition, onset and treatment settings for severe bacterial infections
    • Figure 12: Antibiotic indexed volume and value sales, 6MM, 2002-06 - branded versus non-branded sales, hospital and retail sectors
    • Figure 13: 6MM Antibiotic sales - branded versus non-branded sales, hospital and retail sectors
    • Figure 14: Regional variations in class volume and value antibiotic sales, 2006
    • Figure 15: Comparative concentration of players in the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV markets - cumulative number of companies per decile of sector market share, 2006
    • Figure 16: Comparative concentration of product sales in the antibiotic, antifungal, antiviral and HIV markets - cumulative market share of top selling molecules, 2006
    • Figure 17: Leading molecules by original and license brand sales, and hospital/retail bias, 2006
    • Figure 18: Top five antibacterial companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Figure 19: Pfizer key antibiotics brand summary, 2007
    • Figure 20: The antifungal drug explosion - drug development since the 1950s
    • Figure 21: Cellular targets of antifungal classes
    • Figure 22: Changing spectrum of invasive candidiasis species: episodes per 1,000 admissions, 1988-1992
    • Figure 23: Changing spectrum of invasive moulds: incidence per 1,000 patient days, 2000-03
    • Figure 24: Indexed 7MM antifungal volume and value sales by ATC4, 2002-06
    • Figure 25: 7MM J2A0 ATC antifungal volume and value sales by class, 2002-06
    • Figure 26: Indexed US echinocandin wholesale pricing tactics by quarter, Q2 2005-Q2 2007
    • Figure 27: 7MM regional sales trends - US, M5EU and Japan volume and value sales and growth rates, 2002-06
    • Figure 28: Distribution of 7MM antifungal companies by volume and value sales, 2002 and 2006
    • Figure 29: Top five antifungal companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Figure 30: Market focus of top five antifungal companies, 2007
    • Figure 31: HBV - impact of vaccination on case numbers, US, 1978-2006
    • Figure 32: 7MM antiviral volume and value sales by subsector, 2002-06
    • Figure 33: 7MM hepatitis molecule sales by type - interferons, pegylated interferons and other antivirals, 2002-06
    • Figure 34: 7MM indexed volume sales - pegylated versus standard interferons, 2002-06
    • Figure 35: 7MM indexed respiratory virus drug sales, 2002-06
    • Figure 36: HSV, CMV and similar - molecule sales dynamics by main indication, 7MM, 2005-06
    • Figure 37: 7MM antiviral sales by geographic region, 2002-06
    • Figure 38: Top five antiviral companies by 2006 revenues versus rest of market
    • Figure 39: HIV timelines - key events, 1981-2007
    • Figure 40: HIV market firsts - drug development since1986
    • Figure 41: 7MM HIV sales by class, 2003-06
    • Figure 42: 7MM HIV sales by class and product line composition, 2006
    • Figure 43: Major patent expiries of HIV agents and barriers to generic appeal, 2004-2016
    • Figure 44: Top five HIV companies by company revenues versus rest of market, 7MM, 2006
    • Figure 45: Single products and FDCs - portfolio rejuvenation strategies