英国の個人向け自動車保険市場：2007年

Abstract

Introduction

The brief analyzes the UK private motor insurance market' s performance in 2006 and 2007, providing insight into market growth and profitability. The report concludes with forecasts for the size and profitability of the private motor market under three different scenarios up to 2012.

Scope of this report

• Analysis of the performance of the key sectors of the UK private motor insurance market
• Detailed market forecasts based on Datamonitor' s in-house model and interviews with leading insurers

Research and analysis highlights

Premium income from private non-comprehensive policies decreased due to consumers shifting away from this type of cover, as non-comprehensive premium rates rose on average over the year. Consumers have found it much easier in recent years to obtain comprehensive coverage and so have naturally opted for the better cover.

Key reasons to read this report

• Obtain the latest market size and profitability analysis of the UK private motor insurance market
• Develop your future business plans from an informed viewpoint with Datamonitor' s market forecasts under three different scenarios

Table of Contents

Overview

• Catalyst
• Summary

Market Context

• Introduction
• The UK private motor insurance market started to harden at the end of 2006 and grew in 2007
  • The market hardened late in 2006, which led to strong gains in premium income for 2007
    • UK private motor insurance GWP increased to an estimated £10.1 billion in 2007 as the market hardened
    • Private motor insurance GWP contracted by 0.9% in 2006 as the market only hardened late in the year
  • The comprehensive and non-comprehensive segments both declined in 2006, but rebounded in 2007
    • Comprehensive motor GWP suffered the worst contraction of the three private lines in 2006
    • Non-comprehensive premium income suffered as fewer motorists chose this cover
    • The motorcycle market was the only part of private motor to increase in 2006, although it contracted in 2007
• Late rises in premium rates and low growth in private car numbers depressed GWP in 2006
  • Private motor insurance premium rates recovered late in 2006 and have climbed in 2007
    • Comprehensive premium rates grew towards the end of 2006 and continued to increase in 2007
    • Non-comprehensive premium rates increased significantly in 2006, but trailed the comprehensive market in 2007
  • The UK private vehicle parc continued to grow slowly in 2006
    • Private car numbers increased in 2006, although the rate of growth has slowed
    • New registrations for private cars declined in 2006
    • Although the private car parc is aging it remains mostly modern in composition
    • Motorcycle numbers continue to climb, although growth has slowed
• Underwriting losses expanded in 2006, driven by high costs and lower net revenue
  • The private motor underwriting result deteriorated in 2006
  • Increases in total outgoings were driven by higher commissions and reserving, despite lower claims costs
    • Commissions and expenses rose 3.1% in 2006, while insurers reserved more than they released
    • Net claims costs fell in 2006, moderating the increase in total outgoings
• Claims inflation continue to plague the market, but accident and theft rates have fallen
  • Overall claims inflation increased significantly in 2006
    • Bodily injury claims are more expensive than other claims
  • Falling road traffic accident rates will have given insurers some respite on their claims bills
    • Road traffic accident numbers have declined over the last nine years
    • Road traffic accidents have declined even as car numbers have increased, representing a fall in frequency
    • Casualty rates have fallen steadily, mirroring the decline in road traffic accidents in 2006
  • Theft rates continue to fall, representing a positive trend for private motor insurers
• A number of initiatives aimed at cost savings were undertaken in 2006 and 2007
  • The IFB has been very active in the investigation of professional fraud over the year it has been in operation
  • The tightening up of MID requirements should drive down uninsured driving leading to savings for insurers
  • Insurers remain divided over whether rehabilitation offers real savings on claims costs
  • With the arrival of Copart, recycled parts can assist insurers in curbing repair costs
  • Insurers have pushed online distribution of motor insurance certificates and could save up to £11m a year
• Commercial motor GWP declined in 2006, but the market increased its underwriting profit
  • The commercial motor market contracted slightly more than the private market in 2006
  • The total motor market' s underwriting loss increased marginally to £204m in 2006
  • Despite being in a soft market, commercial motor improved its profitability in 2006

Future Decoded

• Introduction
• Private motor GWP is forecast to reach £12.5 billion by 2012 under neutral market conditions
  • A hardening market in 2008 and 2009 should result in significant premium rate growth
  • The UK private motor insurance market is predicted to be worth £12.5 billion in 2012
  • The private motor insurance market is forecast to reach profitability in 2009
• Under optimal conditions the private motor market will reach £12.9 billion by 2012
  • Less competition could allow for greater price increases in 2008 and 2009
  • The market will grow by over 10% in 2008 allowing it to reach a value of £12.9 billion in 2012
  • With less competitive pricing the market will produce three years of profits
• In the pessimistic scenario GWP will only reach £12.4 billion in 2012 as competition keeps premium inflation down in 2008
  • More intense competition will keep premium rate increases low according to the pessimistic scenario
  • The private motor insurance market will only reach a value of £12.4 billion in 2012 in the pessimistic scenario
  • Underwriting losses will continue throughout the forecast period in the pessimistic scenario
• The total motor market, under neutral conditions, will reach a value of £16.6 billion in 2012
  • The total motor market is forecast to grow at 4.3% a year in the forecast period
  • The total market is forecast to return an underwriting profit in 2008

APPENDIX

• Supplementary data
  • New registrations of cars and light goods vehicles by taxation class
• Definitions
  • Premium income measures
    • Earned premiums
    • Gross Premium
    • Net Premium
    • Written premiums
  • Other definitions
    • Channel
    • Direct insurer/writer
    • Brokers
    • Bancassurers
    • Brandassurers
    • Platform
  • 2005-06 definitions for line of business
    • Motor
    • Total private motor
    • Total commercial motor
    • Private motor comprehensive
    • Private motor non-comprehensive
    • Motorcycle
    • Fleets
    • Commercial vehicles (non-fleet)
  • Pre-2005 definitions for lines of business
    • Motor
• Methodology
  • Primary and secondary research
  • Market size
    • Changes in market size information
    • Market size methodology
    • Lloyd' s players and underwriting result figures
    • GWP versus GEP reporting
    • Home-Foreign, overseas and facultative reinsurance business
• Further reading
• Ask the analyst
• Datamonitor consulting
• Disclaimer
• List of Tables
  • Table 1: UK private motor insurance premium income, 2002-06, (£m)
  • Table 2: Comprehensive/non-comprehensive split of the UK private car parc, 1996-2006e
  • Table 3: UK private motor insurance premium income by line of business 2002-07e, (£m)
  • Table 4: Average quarterly premiums for UK comprehensive and non-comprehensive insurance, 2002-07
  • Table 5: Cars licensed in Great Britain by body type, 1996-2006
  • Table 6: New private car registrations in Great Britain by body type as a percentage of the total private car parc, 2002-06
  • Table 7: Age composition of 2006 car parc, 2006
  • Table 8: Number of motorcycles and new registrations in Great Britain, 2002-06, (000s)
  • Table 9: UK private motor underwriting result, 1996-2006, (£m)
  • Table 10: Detailed private motor underwriting account in the UK, 2002-06, (£m)
  • Table 11: UK net claims as a proportion of total outgoings, 2002-06, (£m)
  • Table 12: Average motor claims costs, 2002-06, (£)
  • Table 13: UK Average claims cost of bodily injury claims notified two years previous, 2002-06, (£)
  • Table 14: Total number of road accidents in the UK, 1996-2006, (000s)
  • Table 15: Road traffic accidents relative to registered vehicles in Great Britain 1996-2006, (000s)
  • Table 16: Deaths, seriously and slightly injured casualties resulting from UK road traffic accidents, 2002-06
  • Table 17: Theft of and from motor vehicles in the UK, 1996-2006/7
  • Table 18: UK motor insurance premium income, 2002-06, (£m)
  • Table 19: UK motor insurance underwriting account 1996-2006, (£m)
  • Table 20: UK private and commercial motor underwriting results, 1996-2006, (£m)
  • Table 21: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 22: UK private motor insurance GWP forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 23: UK private motor insurance underwriting account forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f, (£m)
  • Table 24: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, optimistic scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 25: UK private motor insurance GWP forecast, optimistic scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 26: UK private motor insurance underwriting account forecast, optimistic scenario, 2002 -12f, (£m)
  • Table 27: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 28: UK private motor insurance GWP, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 29: UK private motor insurance underwriting account forecast, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f, (£m)
  • Table 30: Total UK motor insurance GWP 2002-12f, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
  • Table 31: UK total motor insurance underwriting account, 2002-12f (£m)
  • Table 32: Cars and light goods vehicles registered by taxation class, 1996-2006, (000s)
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: The UK private motor insurance market grew in 2007 as premium rates hardened
  • Figure 2: Fewer vehicles had non-comprehensive cover in the UK in 2006
  • Figure 3: The main UK private motor lines once again declined in 2006 before recovering in 2007
  • Figure 4: Both sectors of the UK private motor market experienced significant premium rate inflation in 2007
  • Figure 5: UK comprehensive premium rates increased significantly in 2007
  • Figure 6: New private cars in Great Britain have declined in number since 2002
  • Figure 7: Less than a third of the UK car parc was older than 12 years old in 2006
  • Figure 8: In Great Britain, growth in motorcycle numbers has been slowing since 2005
  • Figure 9: The UK underwriting result deteriorated sharply in 2006
  • Figure 10: Average motor claims costs have risen every year since 2002 in the UK
  • Figure 11: The average UK claims cost for bodily injury claims was higher than for other claim types in 2006
  • Figure 12: UK road accidents peaked in 1997 and have fallen ever since
  • Figure 13: Accidents in the UK have fallen despite a steady increase in the number of vehicles
  • Figure 14: Casualties continued to decline across all categories in 2006
  • Figure 15: Theft of and from motor vehicles continued to decline in 2006/7
  • Figure 16: Commercial motor was the weaker market in 2006 declining more than private motor
  • Figure 17: The UK motor insurance market reported a loss of £204m in 2006
  • Figure 18: The UK private and commercial motor underwriting results diverged after 2001
  • Figure 19: Private motor GWP is forecast to grow significantly in 2008 and 2009
  • Figure 20: Private motor is forecast to make a small profit in 2009
  • Figure 21: Less competition allows for a stronger rally in comprehensive premium income and higher private motor GWP in the optimistic scenario
  • Figure 22: In the optimistic scenario stronger premium growth results in three years of underwriting profits
  • Figure 23: In the pessimistic scenario, GWP growth is expected to be subdued from 2008 onwards
  • Figure 24: In the pessimistic scenario, the market fails to reach a profit in the forecast period
  • Figure 25: After four years of declines, the total motor market is expected to begin growing again in 2008
  • Figure 26: The UK motor market is forecast to be profitable for a total of four years starting in 2008
  • Figure 27: New cars and light goods have declined again as a proportion of the total parc