英国の個人向け自動車保険市場

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

The report analyzes the UK private motor insurance market' s performance in 2006 and 2007, providing insight into competitor strategies, GWP, market share and profitability. The report also provides forecasts for the size and profitability of the private and total motor markets up to 2012.

Scope

• Motor insurance distribution trends analyzed by channel and platform
• Analysis of the major competitive issues shaping the market, supported by interviews with senior industry executives and data from secondary sources
• Detailed market forecasts based on Datamonitor' s in-house model and expertise

Highlights

Premium income from private non-comprehensive policies decreased due to consumers shifting away from this type of cover, as non-comprehensive premium rates rose on average over the year. Consumers have found it much easier in recent years to obtain comprehensive coverage and so have naturally opted for the better cover.

Around two-thirds of consumers arranged their motor insurance over the telephone in 2007, making it the largest distribution platform. However, use of the telephone as a means to arrange a policy has been declining steadily year-on-year since 2003.

The market dominance of the largest players is expected to confer a greater control over the setting of premium rates and a greater ability to steer the market. This has been evident in the fact that the current underwriting cycle has turned before the market reached the level of losses seen in previous cycles.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand what motivates consumers to buy motor insurance and which consumers are most likely to switch provider at renewal
• Benchmark your company against your competitors based on current and past performance in the market
• Develop your future business plans from an informed viewpoint with Datamonitor' s market forecasts under three different scenarios

Table of Contents

• Overview
  • Catalyst
  • Summary
• Executive Summary
  • The UK private motor insurance market started to harden at the end of 2006
    • Private motor insurance GWP contracted by 0.9% in 2006 as the market only hardened late in the year
    • Underwriting losses expanded in 2006, driven by high costs and lower net revenue
  • Distribution of personal lines insurance shifted towards partnerships with banks and brands in 2006
    • The partnership channel gained market share from brokers in the motor insurance market in 2006
    • The telephone remained the largest platform for arranging a motor policy in 2007 but the internet platform is growing fast
  • Conditions remained competitive in 2006, leading some to exit the market
    • The competitive nature of the private motor market caused some insurers to exit the market
    • Market leader RBSI maintained its grip on the private motor market in 2006
  • The market is forecast to reach £12.5 billion by 2012 and regain profitability in 2009
    • The UK private motor insurance market is forecast to be worth £12.5 billion in 2012
    • The private motor insurance market is forecast to reach profitability in 2009
• Table of Contents
• Table of figures
• Table of tables
• Market Context
  • Introduction
  • The UK private motor insurance market started to harden at the end of 2006 and grew in 2007
    • The market hardened late in 2006, which led to strong gains in premium income for 2007
      • UK private motor insurance GWP increased to an estimated £10.1 billion in 2007 as the market hardened
      • Private motor insurance GWP contracted by 0.9% in 2006 as the market only hardened late in the year
    • The comprehensive and non-comprehensive segments both declined in 2006, but rebounded in 2007
      • Comprehensive motor GWP suffered the worst contraction of the three private lines in 2006
      • Non-comprehensive premium income suffered as fewer motorists chose this cover
      • The motorcycle market was the only part of private motor to increase in 2006, although it contracted in 2007
  • Late rises in premium rates and low growth in private car numbers depressed GWP in 2006
    • Private motor insurance premium rates recovered late in 2006 and have climbed in 2007
      • Comprehensive premium rates grew towards the end of 2006 and continued to increase in 2007
      • Non-comprehensive premium rates increased significantly in 2006, but trailed the comprehensive market in 2007
    • The UK private vehicle parc continued to grow slowly in 2006
      • Private car numbers increased in 2006, although the rate of growth has slowed
      • New registrations for private cars declined in 2006
      • Although the private car parc is aging it remains mostly modern in composition
      • Motorcycle numbers continue to climb, although growth has slowed
  • Underwriting losses expanded in 2006, driven by high costs and lower net revenue
    • The private motor underwriting result deteriorated in 2006
    • Increases in total outgoings were driven by higher commissions and reserving, despite lower claims costs
      • Commissions and expenses rose 3.1% in 2006, while insurers reserved more than they released
      • Net claims costs fell in 2006, moderating the increase in total outgoings
  • Claims inflation continue to plague the market, but accident and theft rates have fallen
    • Overall claims inflation increased significantly in 2006
      • Bodily injury claims are more expensive than other claims
    • Falling road traffic accident rates will have given insurers some respite on their claims bills
      • Road traffic accident numbers have declined over the last nine years
      • Road traffic accidents have declined even as car numbers have increased, representing a fall in frequency
      • Casualty rates have fallen steadily, mirroring the decline in road traffic accidents in 2006
    • Theft rates continue to fall, representing a positive trend for private motor insurers
  • A number of initiatives aimed at cost savings were undertaken in 2006 and 2007
    • The IFB has been very active in the investigation of professional fraud over the year it has been in operation
    • The tightening up of MID requirements should drive down uninsured driving leading to savings for insurers
    • Insurers remain divided over whether rehabilitation offers real savings on claims costs
    • With the arrival of Copart, recycled parts can assist insurers in curbing repair costs
    • Insurers have pushed online distribution of motor insurance certificates and could save up to £11m a year
  • Commercial motor GWP declined in 2006, but the market increased its underwriting profit
    • The commercial motor market contracted slightly more than the private market in 2006
    • The total motor market' s underwriting loss increased marginally to £204m in 2006
    • Despite being in a soft market, commercial motor improved its profitability in 2006
• Customer Focus
  • Introduction
  • Distribution of personal lines insurance shifted towards partnerships with banks and brands in 2006
    • The partnership channel gained market share from brokers in the motor insurance market in 2006
      • Aggregators have become important to motor insurance distribution
  • The telephone remained the largest platform for arranging a motor policy in 2007 but the internet platform is growing fast
    • The telephone and face-to-face platforms have been declining steadily
      • More consumers are turning to the internet to arrange their motor policies
  • Retention rates vary by age of consumer and platform used to arrange insurance
    • The majority of motor consumers will stay with the same provider at the time of renewal
    • More than a third of consumers who purchased their motor insurance online switched provider at renewal
      • Consumers purchasing their motor policies face-to-face, by phone or via post are unlikely to change provider
    • Switching providers is more prevalent among younger consumers
  • Price remained the main reason for taking out a motor policy across platforms and ages
    • Consumers purchasing a policy via the internet are more likely to be motivated by cheaper quotes than others
      • Consumers over the age of 55 are less sensitive to price than younger consumers
  • The way in which consumers seek information about motor insurance varies relative to age
    • Previous experience is the most popular source of information and is used more as a consumer gets older
    • Younger consumers are more likely to use web sources
    • Television advertisements are used by 14% of consumers overall
    • Mailshots, brochures and broker advice are mainly used by older people
  • Advertising for motor insurance products remained dominated by the television campaigns of direct insurers in 2006
    • Motor insurance advertising increased by 2.3% in 2006 to almost £200 million
    • Advertising is dominated by insurers, but brokers narrowed the gap in 2006
    • Most of the top 10 motor advertisers in 2006 are direct insurers
    • The spend of the top 10 grew slightly in 2006, driven mainly by the substantial increases of four motor insurance advertisers
    • The top 10 motor advertisers focus on television advertising, reflecting the need for direct insurers in particular to build up brand awareness
      • Most of the largest motor advertisers spent the majority of their budgets on television advertising in 2006
      • Direct mail advertising is used by most of the top 10 to complement their television campaigns
      • Press, outdoor and radio advertising were used sparingly by the top 10 motor insurance advertisers in 2006
    • The smaller advertising budgets of advertisers ranked 11-20 were more evenly split between television and direct mail
      • The list of advertisers ranked 11-20 contains a more varied mix of providers
      • Direct mail was the most favored medium among advertisers ranked 11-20
      • Television advertising was also very important to competitors ranked 11-20 in 2006
      • Advertisers ranked 11-20 spent smaller amounts on marketing in radio, the press and outdoor
    • Television remains the most important medium for motor insurance providers
    • Direct mail remains an important advertising medium, having increased as a proportion of motor insurers budgets
    • Direct Line remains the leader in brand awareness in 2007
• Competitive Dynamics
  • Introduction
  • Legal & General ceased writing private motor insurance
    • Legal & General ceased underwriting new private motor policies in 2006
  • The top 10 private motor insurers lost market share in 2006, although the market remained highly consolidated
    • Market leader RBSI maintained its grip on the private motor market in 2006
    • The top 10 private motor insurers lost market share in 2006
    • A number of the largest private motor insurers grew market share in 2006, despite competitive conditions
      • Direct Line' s GWP remained stable in 2006
      • Royal & SunAlliance raised its market share and increased premium income in 2006
      • Fortis grew its private motor insurance market share in 2006 due to an increase in policy numbers
      • NIG grew its presence in the motor insurance market, gaining market share and GWP in 2006
    • Competitive conditions resulted in some top 10 players losing market share in 2006
      • The market leader, Norwich Union, lost the most market share of the top 10 in 2006
      • Churchill lost market share in 2006 as its non-comprehensive book contracted severely
      • Zurich' s private motor GWP declined in 2006, leading to a contraction in market share
      • CIS' s market share contracted in 2006 due to lower premium income
    • Two players, UKI and esure, saw no change in market share between 2005 and 2006
      • esure joined the top 10 private motor insurers despite decreasing private motor premium income
      • UKI saw its market share increase in 2006, though premium income declined
  • Mid-tier private motor insurers retained market share overall in 2006
    • Only a few private motor insurers in the 11-20 bracket managed to increase market share in 2006
      • AXA' s private motor book rebounded in 2006 increasing by a substantial 43.5% in GWP terms
      • The NFU Mutual experienced modest premium income growth in 2006
      • Aioi Motor & General increased market share and premium income in 2006
    • Five mid-tier insurers lost market share in 2006
      • LV' s market share declined by 0.3 percentage points in 2006 as it allowed premium income to contract
      • Provident Insurance' s book continued to contract in 2006
      • Groupama' s private motor insurance book declined in 2006
      • HSBC experienced a decline in its private motor account in 2006
      • Allianz' s GWP declined by more than 10% in 2006
    • Two mid-tier insurers saw minor declines in premium income but maintained market share in 2006
      • Highway' s private motor book experienced a contraction in 2006, but maintained market share
      • MMA' s market share remained stable although GWP reduced by 3.3% in 2006
  • Most of the top 10 insurers write some non-comprehensive and commercial business
    • Comprehensive premium income dominated the books of the largest private motor insurers
    • Six of the top 10 private motor insurers also write commercial motor insurance
    • The largest private motor insurers also tend to be the largest total motor insurers
  • The average loss ratio among the top 10 UK motor insurance providers declined in 2006 with AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recording the biggest improvements
    • In 2006, the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell by 3.3 percentage points to 71.1%
      • AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recorded the strongest loss ratio reductions
      • Four insurers recorded loss ratio deterioration
  • The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006, with Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recording above-average reductions
    • The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006
    • Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recorded above-average expense ratio decline
    • Norwich Union, Zurich and NFU Mutual recorded the highest increases in their expense ratios
  • The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers fell by four percentage points in 2006, with AXA and Churchill seeing significant declines
    • The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers declined by four percentage points in 2006
    • AXA and Churchill recorded significant reductions in combined ratio in 2006
    • NIG, Direct Line and Zurich recorded combined ratio increases
• Future Decoded
  • Introduction
  • Private motor GWP is forecast to reach £12.5 billion by 2012 under neutral market conditions
    • A hardening market in 2008 and 2009 should result in significant premium rate growth
    • The UK private motor insurance market is predicted to be worth £12.5 billion in 2012
    • The private motor insurance market is forecast to reach profitability in 2009
  • Under optimal conditions the private motor market will reach £12.9 billion by 2012
    • Less competition could allow for greater price increases in 2008 and 2009
    • The market will grow by over 10% in 2008 allowing it to reach a value of £12.9 billion in 2012
    • With less competitive pricing the market will produce three years of profits
  • In the pessimistic scenario GWP will only reach £12.4 billion in 2012 as competition keeps premium inflation down in 2008
    • More intense competition will keep premium rate increases low according to the pessimistic scenario
    • The private motor insurance market will only reach a value of £12.4 billion in 2012 in the pessimistic scenario
    • Underwriting losses will continue throughout the forecast period in the pessimistic scenario
  • The total motor market, under neutral conditions, will reach a value of £16.6 billion in 2012
    • The total motor market is forecast to grow at 4.3% a year in the forecast period
    • The total market is forecast to return an underwriting profit in 2008
• APPENDIX
  • Supplementary data
    • New registrations of cars and light goods vehicles by taxation class
  • Definitions
    • Premium income measures
      • Earned premiums
      • Gross Premium
      • Net Premium
      • Written premiums
    • Other definitions
      • Channel
      • Direct insurer/writer
      • Brokers
      • Bancassurers
      • Brandassurers
      • Platform
    • 2005-06 definitions for line of business
      • Motor
      • Total private motor
      • Total commercial motor
      • Private motor comprehensive
      • Private motor non-comprehensive
      • Motorcycle
      • Fleets
      • Commercial vehicles (non-fleet)
    • Pre-2005 definitions for lines of business
      • Motor
  • Methodology
    • Primary and secondary research
    • Market size
      • Changes in market size information
      • Market size methodology
      • Lloyd' s players and underwriting result figures
    • Competitor data
      • CIS
      • GWP versus GEP reporting
      • Home-Foreign, overseas and facultative reinsurance business
    • Advertising statistics
    • Isis MORI methodology and contacts
      • Sample design
  • Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: UK private motor insurance premium income, 2002-06, (£m)
    • Table 2: Comprehensive/non-comprehensive split of the UK private car parc, 1996-2006e
    • Table 3: UK private motor insurance premium income by line of business 2002-07e, (£m)
    • Table 4: Average quarterly premiums for UK comprehensive and non-comprehensive insurance, 2002-07
    • Table 5: Cars licensed in Great Britain by body type, 1996-2006
    • Table 6: New private car registrations in Great Britain by body type as a percentage of the total private car parc, 2002−06
    • Table 7: Age composition of 2006 car parc, 2006
    • Table 8: Number of motorcycles and new registrations in Great Britain, 2002-06, (000s)
    • Table 9: UK private motor underwriting result, 1996-2006, (£m)
    • Table 10: Detailed private motor underwriting account in the UK, 2002-06, (£m)
    • Table 11: UK net claims as a proportion of total outgoings, 2002-06, (£m)
    • Table 12: Average motor claims costs, 2002-06, (£)
    • Table 13: UK Average claims cost of bodily injury claims notified two years previous, 2002-06, (£)
    • Table 14: Total number of road accidents in the UK, 1996-2006, (000s)
    • Table 15: Road traffic accidents relative to registered vehicles in Great Britain 1996-2006, (000s)
    • Table 16: Deaths, seriously and slightly injured casualties resulting from UK road traffic accidents, 2002-06
    • Table 17: Theft of and from motor vehicles in the UK, 1996-2006/7
    • Table 18: UK motor insurance premium income, 2002-06, (£m)
    • Table 19: UK motor insurance underwriting account 1996-2006, (£m)
    • Table 20: UK private and commercial motor underwriting results, 1996-2006, (£m)
    • Table 21: Motor insurance GWP distribution by channel, 2002-06
    • Table 22: Distribution of private motor insurance, by platform, 2003-07
    • Table 23: Private motor retention rates, 2003-07
    • Table 24: Propensity to switch motor provider and likelihood of getting other quotes, by distribution platform, 2007
    • Table 25: Private motor retention rates by age, 2003-07
    • Table 26: Motivations for taking out a motor insurance policy, by distribution platform, 2007
    • Table 27: Reasons for choosing current motor insurance policy by age, 2007
    • Table 28: Sources of information for motor policy, by age, 2007
    • Table 29: Advertisement spending by type of insurance provider, 2006
    • Table 30: Top 10 motor insurance advertisers, 2004-06
    • Table 31: Top 10 motor insurance advertisers' spend by media, 2006
    • Table 32: Motor insurance advertisers' spending by media, 2006
    • Table 33: Top 10 TV advertisers, 2006
    • Table 34: Top 10 direct mail advertisers, 2005-6
    • Table 35: Top 10 motor insurers by advertising spend and brand awareness of motor insurers, 2007
    • Table 36: Top 10 insurance providers by spontaneous recognition, 2007
    • Table 37: Top 10 UK private motor insurers' market share in 1996, 2005 and 2006
    • Table 38: Top 10 UK private motor insurers by market share, 2002-06
    • Table 39: Top 10 UK private motor insurers by premium income, 2002-06, (£000s)
    • Table 40: UK private motor insurers ranked 11-20 by market share, 2002-06
    • Table 41: UK private motor insurers ranked 11-20 by premium income, 2002-06, (£000s)
    • Table 42: Top 10 UK private motor insurers' comprehensive and non-comprehensive shares of total GWP, 2005-06, (£000s)
    • Table 43: Top 10 UK private motor insurers' GWP split by private and commercial, 2006, (£000s)
    • Table 44: Top 10 UK motor insurers' GWP split by private and commercial, 2006, (£000s)
    • Table 45: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005−06
    • Table 46: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005−06
    • Table 47: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005−06
    • Table 48: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 49: UK private motor insurance GWP forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 50: UK private motor insurance underwriting account forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f, (£m)
    • Table 51: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, optimistic scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 52: UK private motor insurance GWP forecast, optimistic scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 53: UK private motor insurance underwriting account forecast, optimistic scenario, 2002 -12f, (£m)
    • Table 54: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 55: UK private motor insurance GWP, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 56: UK private motor insurance underwriting account forecast, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f, (£m)
    • Table 57: Total UK motor insurance GWP 2002−12f, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 58: UK total motor insurance underwriting account, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 59: Cars and light goods vehicles registered by taxation class, 1996-2006, (000s)
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: The percentage of consumers arranging their motor insurance online in the UK has been increasing steadily since 2003
    • Figure 2: The top 10 UK insurers controlled more of the market in 2006 than in 1996
    • Figure 3: The UK private motor insurance market grew in 2007 as premium rates hardened
    • Figure 4: Fewer vehicles had non-comprehensive cover in the UK in 2006
    • Figure 5: The main UK private motor lines once again declined in 2006 before recovering in 2007
    • Figure 6: Both sectors of the UK private motor market experienced significant premium rate inflation in 2007
    • Figure 7: UK comprehensive premium rates increased significantly in 2007
    • Figure 8: New private cars in Great Britain have declined in number since 2002
    • Figure 9: Less than a third of the UK car parc was older than 12 years old in 2006
    • Figure 10: In Great Britain, growth in motorcycle numbers has been slowing since 2005
    • Figure 11: The UK underwriting result deteriorated sharply in 2006
    • Figure 12: Average motor claims costs have risen every year since 2002 in the UK
    • Figure 13: The average UK claims cost for bodily injury claims was higher than for other claim types in 2006
    • Figure 14: UK road accidents peaked in 1997 and have fallen ever since
    • Figure 15: Accidents in the UK have fallen despite a steady increase in the number of vehicles
    • Figure 16: Casualties continued to decline across all categories in 2006
    • Figure 17: Theft of and from motor vehicles continued to decline in 2006/7
    • Figure 18: Commercial motor was the weaker market in 2006 declining more than private motor
    • Figure 19: The UK motor insurance market reported a loss of £204m in 2006
    • Figure 20: The UK private and commercial motor underwriting results diverged after 2001
    • Figure 21: The partnership channel has increased its share of the private motor market in recent years
    • Figure 22: The percentage of consumers arranging their motor insurance online has been increasing steadily since 2003
    • Figure 23: Around three quarters of motor insurance consumers stay with the same company at renewal
    • Figure 24: Consumers purchasing their motor insurance online were more likely to change their insurance provider in 2007
    • Figure 25: Older consumers were more likely to stay with their current providers in 2007
    • Figure 26: Obtaining a cheaper quote was the most common reason for choosing a provider across all distribution platforms in 2007
    • Figure 27: Reputation was a factor more valued by older consumers than younger ones in 2007
    • Figure 28: Use of web-based materials was most common among young consumers in 2007
    • Figure 29: Most older consumers value previous experiences with providers in 2007
    • Figure 30: Insurers dominate advertising spend for motor insurance, but brokers' spend grew in 2006
    • Figure 31: Television remained the medium of choice for most of the top 10 advertisers in 2006
    • Figure 32: Television and direct mail account for almost 90% of spending by advertisers ranked 11-20
    • Figure 33: Spontaneous consumer awareness of motor insurers against advertising expenditure, 2006
    • Figure 34: The top 10 insurers controlled more of the market in 2006 than in 1996
    • Figure 35: Norwich Union remained the single largest insurer in the UK market in 2006
    • Figure 36: Insurers in the 11-20 segment showed very little difference in market share in 2006
    • Figure 37: None of the top 10 insurers wrote a substantial part of their business in the non-comprehensive market
    • Figure 38: Most of the top 10 UK private motor insurers also maintain a presence in the commercial market
    • Figure 39: The top 10 UK private insurers dominate the top motor rankings due to the size of their private books
    • Figure 40: While the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell in 2006, NIG and Direct Line saw increases in their ratios
    • Figure 41: Norwich Union saw the biggest increase in private motor expense ratio in 2006
    • Figure 42: NIG saw the biggest increase in combined ratio in 2006
    • Figure 43: Private motor GWP is forecast to grow significantly in 2008 and 2009
    • Figure 44: Private motor is forecast to make a small profit in 2009
    • Figure 45: Less competition allows for a stronger rally in comprehensive premium income and higher private motor GWP in the optimistic scenario
    • Figure 46: In the optimistic scenario stronger premium growth results in three years of underwriting profits
    • Figure 47: In the pessimistic scenario, GWP growth is expected to be subdued from 2008 onwards
    • Figure 48: In the pessimistic scenario, the market fails to reach a profit in the forecast period
    • Figure 49: After four years of declines, the total motor market is expected to begin growing again in 2008
    • Figure 50: The UK motor market is forecast to be profitable for a total of four years starting in 2008
    • Figure 51: New cars and light goods have declined again as a proportion of the total parc