英国の法人向け自動車保険市場：2007年

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

A comprehensive guide to the UK commercial motor insurance market, analyzing trends in market performance based on premium income and profitability.

Scope

• Analysis of the main factors influencing market size and profitability in the commercial motor market
• Analysis of the major competitive issues shaping the market, supported by interviews with senior industry executives and data from secondary sources
• Detailed market forecasts based on industry interviews and Datamonitor' s in-house expertise

Highlights

The market' s decline in 2006 was primarily the result of lower premium rates in both of the main segments of the commercial motor insurance market. Both commercial vehicle and fleet experienced a soft market and sustained high levels of competition in 2006, which kept premium rates declining throughout the year.

New company car registrations declined by 3.3% in 2006. As company cars make up a large portion of the commercial vehicle market , this is unwelcome news for many insurers, particularly those in the fleet market, who will no longer be able to rely upon a fast growing car parc to make up for the reductions they have put through on premium rates.

National brokers saw their distribution share decline, while chain brokers and telebrokers increased their share of commercial insurance distribution. This has occurred as a result of consolidation, as the growth of broker networks and chains have concentrated business in the hands of players like Towergate, Cobra and large regional players.

Reasons to Purchase

• Benchmark your company against your competitors using data on current and past performances in the market
• Develop your future business plans with the help of Datamonitor' s market forecasts
• Understand the trends behind SMEs insurance purchasing behavior, to better target this market segment

Table of Contents

• Overview
  • Catalyst
  • Summary
• Executive Summary
  • The commercial motor market declined in 2006, before growing marginally in 2007
    • Commercial motor GWP contracted to £3.37 billion in 2006 before a modest recovery in 2007
    • GWP was influenced by declines in premium rates and slow growth in vehicle numbers in 2006 and 2007
      • The commercial motor parc grew in 2006, though the number of company cars fell
      • Competitive pressures have forced down premium rates in both segments of the commercial motor market
    • Commercial motor underwriting profits unexpectedly rose in 2006 as outgoings fell
  • Brokers continued to dominate the distribution of commercial insurance
    • National brokers have lost distribution market share to the direct channel, chain brokers and telebrokers
    • The direct channel increased its share of commercial insurance GWP by 1% in 2006
  • Many top 10 commercial motor insurers experienced shrinking books in 2006
    • The market remained highly concentrated despite the top 10 losing market share
    • The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers declined by four percentage points in 2006
  • The commercial motor market is forecast to harden in 2008 and reach £4.1 billion by 2012
    • The commercial motor market is forecast to harden in 2008 and reach £4.1 billion by 2012
    • Commercial motor underwriting profits are forecast to reach a height of £327 million in 2010
• Table of Contents
• Table of figures
• Table of tables
• Market Context
  • Introduction
  • The commercial motor market declined in 2006, before growing marginally in 2007
    • Commercial motor GWP contracted to £3.37 billion in 2006 before a modest recovery in 2007
      • Commercial motor premium income contracted by 1% in 2006, driven by premium rate decreases
      • The commercial motor insurance market grew slightly in 2007 and was worth an estimated £3.4 billion
    • Fleet premium income contracted in 2006 but rebounded slightly in 2007
    • The commercial vehicle market declined slightly in 2006 before increasing by an estimated 1.3% in 2007
  • GWP was influenced by declines in premium rates and slow growth in vehicle numbers in 2006 and 2007
    • The commercial motor parc grew in 2006, though the number of company cars fell
    • Company cars declined as a proportion of the commercial motor parc
      • Company cars fell as a proportion of the total car parc
    • New registrations were down in 2006 as fewer new goods vehicles, buses and coaches were registered
      • New company car registrations also declined as a proportion of car registrations in 2006
    • Competitive pressures have forced down premium rates in both segments of the commercial motor market
      • Fleet premium rates saw declines in 2006 and 2007 due to competitive pressure
      • Commercial vehicle premium rates have come under pressure from insurers targeting SME business
  • Commercial motor underwriting profits unexpectedly rose in 2006 as outgoings fell
    • Underwriting profits increased to £244 million in 2006, despite the soft market
    • The drop in total outgoing was caused by a decrease in claims incurred, as commissions and expenses grew
      • Claims incurred dropped as a proportion of total outgoings in 2006
      • Growth in commissions and expenses constrained the growth in profits
  • Claims inflation remains dominated by rising personal injury costs, though falling accident rates have given insurers some respite
    • Overall claims inflation increased significantly in 2006
      • Bodily injury claims are more expensive than other claims
    • Falling road traffic accident rates will have given insurers some respite on their claims bills
      • Road traffic accident numbers have declined over the last nine years
      • Road traffic accidents have declined even as car numbers have increased, representing a fall in frequency
      • Casualty rates have fallen steadily, mirroring the decline in road traffic accidents in 2006
    • Theft rates continue to fall, representing a positive trend for private motor insurers
    • Insurers have tried a variety of solutions to limit the cost and volume claims caused by traffic accidents
      • Some early adopters have begun using telematics to control fleet claims costs
      • Smart Drive and online training have also been used to correct bad driving behavior
    • Insurers remain divided over whether rehabilitation offers real savings on claims costs
  • The commercial and private motor market both contracted in 2006 but diverged in terms of profits
    • The private motor market contracted along with the commercial market in 2006
    • The total motor market' s underwriting loss increased marginally to £204 million in 2006
    • Despite both being in a soft market, the private and commercial markets record very different underwriting results
• Distribution Dynamics
  • Introduction
  • Brokers continued to dominate the distribution of commercial insurance
    • National brokers have lost distribution market share to the direct channel, chain brokers and telebrokers
    • The direct channel increased its share of commercial insurance GWP by 1% in 2006
    • Affinity groups remain a small channel for the distribution of commercial insurance
    • Banks and building societies continue to play a small role in the distribution of commercial insurance
    • Commercial motor is the line of business most at risk to the direct channel
  • The SME market is dominated by brokers but direct players have grown
    • Most SMEs buy insurance via brokers, but direct insurers also distribute a significant part of the market
    • Brokers remain the top choice for SMEs to approach if they had to switch provider
    • Many SMEs are willing to consider alternative channels when prompted
      • Up to 44% of SMEs would consider using a bank as an insurance provider
      • Almost three quarters of SMEs would be willing to consider direct insurers, in the hope of cost savings
  • Buying insurance via the internet and telephone is becoming more popular with SMEs
    • Many SMEs are open to purchasing insurance by telephone
    • Even more SMEs are willing to buy their insurance via the internet, showing the potential of this platform
    • Commercial motor and property insurance are most likely to be purchased through alternative platforms
  • Only a small group of SMEs are willing to switch provider, usually for a lower price
    • Almost 90% of SMEs are not considering a change of provider in the next year
    • Only 16% of SMEs have changed insurance provider in the last two years
    • One in 10 SMEs are considering switching their insurance provider in the next 12 months
• Competitor Focus
  • Introduction
  • A few new competitors entered the market in 2007
    • Direct Line entered the commercial market with an SME targeted proposition in 2007
    • LV' s broker arm ABC Insurance launched its first products in 2007 with commercial motor policies to follow
    • Underwriting agency Arista rolled out multiple products for the commercial motor market in 2007
  • Many top 10 commercial motor insurers experienced shrinking books in 2006
    • The market remained highly concentrated despite the top 10 losing market share
    • The soft market led to a reduction in market share for four of the top 10 commercial motor insurers in 2006
      • Norwich Union continued to lose market share in 2006
      • Zurich experienced a contracting book in 2006, leading to a decline in its commercial motor market share
      • Allianz suffered a decline in its commercial motor market share in 2006 due to the competitive market
      • Brit' s market share declined marginally as premium income fell by 3.4%
    • Four top 10 commercial motor insurers increased market share in 2006
      • NFU Mutual expanded its commercial motor book in 2006, leading to an increase of market share to 5.5%
      • QBE increased market share in 2006 by maintaining its premium income despite soft market conditions
      • AXA increased market share in 2006 by rebuilding its commercial motor book
      • NIG grew its market share by 0.4 percentage points in 2006 and achieved growth of 10.9% in GWP
    • Two competitors saw no change in market share in 2006
      • The market leader Royal & SunAlliance maintained its market share in 2006 at 18.2%
      • Highway pursued a more selective commercial motor strategy in 2006 that led to a decline in premium income
  • Mid-sized commercial motor insurers gained market share in 2006
    • The majority of insurers ranked 11-20 gained market share in 2006
    • Tradex and CIS lost market share in 2006, while St Paul and Ecclesiastical saw no changes
      • Tradex declined to 1.5% of the commercial motor market in 2006
      • CIS' s market share in commercial motor declined in 2006
      • St Paul and Ecclesiastical' s market share was unchanged in 2006
  • A majority of the top 10 have mixed motor insurance portfolios
    • Fleet premium income dominated the commercial motor books of the largest insurers in 2006
    • The top 10 commercial motor insurers are also active in the private motor market
    • Private motor dominates the books of the top 10 motor insurers
  • The average loss ratio among the top 10 UK motor insurance providers declined in 2006 with AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recording the biggest improvements
    • In 2006, the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell by 3.3 percentage points to 71.1%
      • AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recorded the strongest loss ratio reductions
      • Four insurers recorded loss ratio deterioration
  • The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006, with Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recording above-average reductions
    • The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006
    • Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recorded above-average expense ratio decline
    • Norwich Union, Zurich and NFU Mutual recorded the highest increases in their expense ratios
  • The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers fell by four percentage points in 2006, with AXA and Churchill seeing significant declines
    • The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers declined by four percentage points in 2006
    • AXA and Churchill recorded significant reductions in combined ratio in 2006
    • NIG, Direct Line and Zurich recorded combined ratio increases
• Future Decoded
  • Introduction
  • The commercial motor market is forecast to harden in 2008 and reach £4.1 billion by 2012
    • Premium rate increases are expected to lead to an improvement in the commercial motor market
    • The UK commercial motor insurance market is forecast to reach a value of £4.1 billion in 2012
    • Commercial motor underwriting profits are forecast to reach a height of £327 million in 2010
  • More competitive pricing will depress future commercial motor market performance
    • In the pessimistic scenario, competitive pricing will depress premium income growth
    • The market will reach a value of £3.9 million in 2012 under more competitive conditions
    • The market will make a loss of £17m in 2012, the last year of the forecast period
    • The pessimistic scenario results in £44 million less profit for insurers
  • The total motor market, under neutral conditions, will reach a value of £16.6 billion in 2012
    • The total motor market is forecast to grow at 4.3% a year in the forecast period
    • The total market is forecast to return an underwriting profit in 2008
• APPENDIX
  • Supplementary data
    • Motor vehicles registered by taxation class
  • Definitions
    • Premium income measures
      • Earned premiums
      • Gross Premium
      • Net Premium
      • Written premiums
    • Definitions of ABI terms
      • Brokers
      • National brokers
      • Other intermediaries & brokers
      • Chain brokers & telebrokers
      • Direct
      • Other company agents
      • Utilities/retailers/affinity groups
      • Company staff
      • Banks/building societies
    • SME
    • 2005-06 definitions for line of business
      • Motor
      • Total private motor
      • Total commercial motor
      • Private motor comprehensive
      • Private motor non-comprehensive
      • Motorcycle
      • Fleets
      • Commercial vehicles (non-fleet)
    • Pre-2005 definitions for lines of business
      • Motor
  • Methodology
    • Primary and secondary research
    • Market size
      • Changes in market size information
      • Market size methodology
      • Lloyd' s players and underwriting result figures
    • Competitor data
      • CIS
      • Home-foreign, overseas and facultative reinsurance business
    • UK commercial broker survey H2 2007
    • Datamonitor' s SME Insurance Survey Q1 2007
  • Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Commercial motor GWP, 2002-07e (£m)
    • Table 2: Commercial motor GWP, by line of business, 2002-07e (£m)
    • Table 3: Commercial motor parc in Great Britain by body type, 2002-06 (000s)
    • Table 4: Commercial motor parc in Great Britain by body type, 2005-06 (000s)
    • Table 5: Company car parc' s share of total car parc, 2002-06 (000s)
    • Table 6: New commercial vehicle registrations in Great Britain by body type, 2002−06 (000s)
    • Table 7: Company cars new registrations in Great Britain, 2002-06 (000s)
    • Table 8: Commercial motor underwriting account, 1996-2006 (£m)
    • Table 9: Net claims as proportion of total outgoings, 2002-06 (£m)
    • Table 10: Total commercial motor gross claims costs, 2002-06 (£m)
    • Table 11: Detailed commercial motor underwriting account, 2002-06 (£m)
    • Table 12: Average motor claims costs, 2002-06, (£)
    • Table 13: UK average claims cost of bodily injury claims notified two years previous, 2002-06, (£)
    • Table 14: Total number of road accidents in the UK, 1996-2006 (000s)
    • Table 15: Road traffic accidents relative to registered vehicles in Great Britain 1996-2006 (000s)
    • Table 16: Deaths, seriously and slightly injured casualties resulting from road traffic accidents, 2002-06
    • Table 17: Theft of and from motor vehicles, 1996-2006/7
    • Table 18: UK motor insurance GWP, 2002-06 (£m)
    • Table 19: UK motor insurance underwriting account 1996-2006 (£m)
    • Table 20: Private and commercial motor underwriting results, 1996-2006 (£m)
    • Table 21: Market share of distribution channels in the commercial general insurance market, 2003-6
    • Table 22: Market share of the market leader, the rest of the top 10 and the remainder, 1996, 2005, 2006
    • Table 23: Top 10 commercial motor insurers by market share, 2002-06 (%)
    • Table 24: Top 10 commercial motor insurers by premium income, 2002-06 (£000s)
    • Table 25: Commercial motor insurers ranked 11-20 by market share, 2002-06 (%)
    • Table 26: Premium income of commercial motor competitors ranked 11-20, 2002-06 (£000s)
    • Table 27: Top 10 commercial motor insurers' fleet and commercial vehicle shares of total GWP, 2006 (£000s)
    • Table 28: Split between commercial and private markets for the top 10 commercial motor insurers, 2006 (£000s)
    • Table 29: Top 10 motor insurers' GWP split by private and commercial, 2006 (£000s)
    • Table 30: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005−06
    • Table 31: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005−06
    • Table 32: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005−06
    • Table 33: Key variables affecting commercial motor insurance GWP, neutral scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 34: UK commercial motor insurance GWP forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 35: UK commercial motor insurance underwriting account forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 36: Key variables affecting commercial motor insurance GWP, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f
    • Table 37: UK commercial motor insurance GWP forecast, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 38: UK commercial motor insurance underwriting account forecast, pessimistic scenario, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 39: UK commercial motor underwriting result forecast, neutral and pessimistic scenarios, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 40: Total motor insurance GWP forecast, neutral scenario, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 41: UK total motor insurance underwriting account, 2002-12f (£m)
    • Table 42: Motor vehicles registered by taxation class, 2002−06 (000s)
    • Table 43: New motor vehicle registrations by taxation class, 2002-06 (000s)
    • Table 44: Q: "What business sector are you involved in?"
    • Table 45: Q: "How large is your company in terms of number of employees?"
    • Table 46: Q: "How large is your company in terms of turnover?"
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Commercial motor vehicles continued to increase in number in 2006
    • Figure 2: The top 10 commercial motor insurers have grown their share of the market since 1996
    • Figure 3: Commercial motor premium income grew slightly in 2007 after three years of declines
    • Figure 4: The commercial motor market declined in 2006 but saw a small increase in 2007
    • Figure 5: Commercial motor vehicles continued to increase in number in 2006
    • Figure 6: Light goods vehicles and company cars account for most of the commercial motor parc
    • Figure 7: The company car parc has remained largely stable as a proportion of the overall car parc
    • Figure 8: New registrations of commercial motor vehicles fell in 2006
    • Figure 9: New registrations for company cars declined after a rally in 2005
    • Figure 10: Despite falling NWP, the market attained its highest underwriting profit in 2006
    • Figure 11: Average motor claims costs have risen every year since 2002 in the UK
    • Figure 12: The average UK claims cost for bodily injury claims was higher than for other claim types in 2006
    • Figure 13: Road accidents peaked in 1997 and have fallen ever since
    • Figure 14: Accidents in the UK have fallen despite a steady increase in the number of vehicles
    • Figure 15: Casualties continued to decline across all categories in 2006
    • Figure 16: Theft of and from motor vehicles continued to decline in 2006/7
    • Figure 17: Commercial motor GWP declined slightly more than private motor in 2006
    • Figure 18: The UK motor insurance market reported a loss of £204 million in 2006
    • Figure 19: The private and commercial motor underwriting results diverged after 2001
    • Figure 20: National brokers dominate the distribution of commercial general insurance in the UK in terms of GWP
    • Figure 21: Commercial motor is the line of business most at risk to the direct channel
    • Figure 22: The distribution of insurance to SMEs remained largely under the control of brokers in 2007
    • Figure 23: SMEs have become more likely to consider direct insurers if they were to change provider
    • Figure 24: The prospect of cheaper premiums is the primary reason given for being willing to consider using a bank as an insurance provider
    • Figure 25: Price is the top reason given by SMEs that would consider switching to a direct insurer
    • Figure 26: Speed of concluding their insurance purchase is the primary reason given by SMEs willing to consider buying via the telephone
    • Figure 27: SMEs are willing to consider buying via the internet if it is quicker and cheaper than other platforms
    • Figure 28: Over half of SMEs would consider buying commercial motor online or via the telephone
    • Figure 29: Most SMEs do not consider dropping their current insurance provider
    • Figure 30: The number of SMEs staying with their provider for more than five years has increased since 2005
    • Figure 31: The price of insurance premiums is the most important reason why some SMEs plan to change insurance provider in the next year
    • Figure 32: The top 10 commercial motor insurers have grown their share of the market since 1996
    • Figure 33: The top insurers retained a firm grip on the market in 2006 with a 76.3% market share
    • Figure 34: Mid-tier competitors accounted for 10.5% of the commercial motor market in 2006
    • Figure 35: Most of the top 10 commercial motor insurers' books are dominated by fleet business
    • Figure 36: Most of the top 10 commercial motor insurers also have a large presence in the private market
    • Figure 37: The top private insurers dominate the top motor rankings due to the size of their private books
    • Figure 38: While the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell in 2006, NIG and Direct Line saw increases in their ratios
    • Figure 39: Norwich Union saw the biggest increase in private motor expense ratio in 2006
    • Figure 40: NIG saw the biggest increase in combined ratio in 2006
    • Figure 41: The commercial motor market is predicted to harden in 2008, resulting in an increase in GWP
    • Figure 42: The market is forecast to return underwriting profits between 2008 and 2012
    • Figure 43: Future market size is constrained by more competitive pricing in the pessimistic scenario
    • Figure 44: Underwriting profits are forecast to decline quickly after 2009 in the pessimistic scenario
    • Figure 45: The forecast underwriting results of the two scenarios diverge after 2009
    • Figure 46: After four years of declines, the total motor market is expected to begin growing again in 2008
    • Figure 47: The motor market is forecast to be profitable for a total of four years starting in 2008