欧州のガス・電力価格動向：2008年6月

Overview

Introduction

The growing role of wholesale traded energy markets across Europe creates a greater need for players throughout the value chain to be aware of the latest market movements and developments. From the wellhead or power station gate to the end-user, volatility in the spot and forward price of power and gas is creating an increasingly challenging environment for all market participants.

• DATAMONITOR VIEW
  • CATALYST
  • SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • UK households must brace themselves for rising prices aswholesale energy costs soar
    • A combination of speculation, commodity driven investmentstrategies and supply fears are fuelling gas contracts at the NBP
    • The retail power sector is highly likely to see higherprices passed on to end-users if wholesale prices continue to rise
    • The outlook for the power sector mirrors the gas marketgiven its dependence on gas as a generation fuel
    • Passing through higher commodity costs to the end-user isrelatively transparent in the forecourt-crude markets
    • Passing through higher commodity costs to the end-user isrelatively transparent in the forecourt-crude markets
    • The domestic energy sector looks in line with otherindustries that have increased in concentration
    • The supermarket competition question is directlycomparable with the power sector' s competitive profile
  • At the prompt end of the European baseload power curvesentiment continues to remain bullish
    • Belgian wholesale power prices continue to rise from April2008
    • After Q1' s short downturn, French power prices firm aheadof Summer' 08
    • German baseload power prices firm sharply through thecourse of Q2
    • Dutch baseload power contracts rise sharply at both theshort and far ends of the curve
    • Like the rest of Europe, capacity fears alone are notdriving baseload prices in the UK
  • At the very near end of the forward curve EU gas pricesfinally dip
    • Uncertainty over long-term supply is a concern despitecontracts softening at the near end
    • TTF gas prices illustrate the uneasy sentiment going outon the forward curve
    • Belgian gas prices firm on the far end of the forwardcurve and soften on front month delivery
• APPENDIX
  • This brief builds upon Datamonitor' s extensive pricingproposition
  • Glossary
    • This brief contains a number of industry standard terms
  • Our analysis builds on other sources to provide greaterinsight
    • Further Reading
    • Extended Methodology
  • We assess the profitability of fossil fuel plants acrossnorthwest Europe
  • Our bespoke services can be tailored to your specificneeds
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: As supplier margins are squeezed by risingwholesale gas costs, it is inevitable that retail bills will rise
  • Figure 2: NBP gas contracts are trading at a premium forthe winter and summer periods going forward
  • Figure 3: The forecast looks gloomy for retail customersas wholesale price pressure will inflate household bills in the nearfuture
  • Figure 4: Forward power prices are following the gastrajectory given the current generation mix and rising input costs
  • Figure 5: Petrol pump prices are transparent and mirrorcommodity price movements
  • Figure 6: A positive linear relationship exists betweenforecourt prices and the cost of commodity
  • Figure 7: HHI' s between retail supermarket and retailenergy supply illustrates the complex nature of assessing competition andmarket structure
  • Figure 8: At the prompt end of the European baseloadpower curve sentiment continues to remain bullish
  • Figure 9: Belgian baseload power prices rose across theboard with Month-Ahead accelerating the quickest
  • Figure 10: Month-Ahead baseload power contractsrebounded and firmed abruptly in contrast to last month' s dip
  • Figure 11: The German forward curve spiked at both endsas speculators rallied on baseload contracts remaining bullish in the nearfuture
  • Figure 12: Dutch power curves reflect the bullishsentiment prevalent throughout the rest of Europe
  • Figure 13: The UK power market continued to showresilience with rising contracts
  • Figure 14: At the very near end of the forward curve EUgas prices finally dip
  • Figure 15: Security of supply is a concern firmingprices out on the curve with spot contracts softening
  • Figure 16: Going out to 2009 supply issues appear to beat the front of traders minds as bullish Year-Ahead contracts spike
  • Figure 17: Spot prices dipped as warmer temperatures anda reduction in gas demand eased prices ahead of Q3
  • Figure 18: Energy pricing proposition
  • Figure 19: Generation spread methodology