非定型抗精神病薬：ライフサイクルマネジメントと将来の動向

Abstract

The $15 billion antipsychotics market will be hard hit by generics of nearly all the most frequently prescribed atypicals and by a dearth of breakthrough therapies in the pipeline. Overall market decline will be signifi cant by 2015, but current market leaders are staking out new territories to defend their franchises.

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At present, because all marketed atypicals (except clozapine) are expensive, cost is not generally a factor in a physician' s choice of agent. That will change when the patent for branded risperidone expires. What factors do physicians consider in prescribing? How will prescribing change when lower-cost generics are available? How will payers respond to availability of generic risperidone?

Pending genericization and a less than robust pipeline threaten the historic growth of the antipsychotics marketplace. What kind of sales are antipsychotics likely to generate in 2010? In 2015? What is the outlook for emerging atypicals?

A variety of tactics are available to manufacturers of current and emerging atypicals. What specifi c strategies are companies pursuing? Will today' s prominent players continue to lead the marketplace?

• The current market: Key players, atypical antipsychotics, current market leaders, indications, sales, major markets.
• Market outlook: Sales trends through 2015, key players, "new-generation" atypicals,genericization, reimbursement issues, declining markets.
• Survival strategies: Life-cycle management, line extensions, new indications and patient populations.

• Astellas
• AstraZeneca
• Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Eli Lilly
• Johnson & Johnson
• Lundbeck
• Novartis
• Organon
• Otsuka
• Pfi zer
• Solvay
• Wyeth

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
  • Strategic Considerations
  • Stakeholder Implications
• Overview of Antipsychotics Marketplace
• Key Players- Atypical Antipsychotics
  • Johnson & Johnson' s Risperdal
  • Eli Lilly' s Zyprexa
  • AstraZeneca' s Seroquel
  • Pfizer' s Geodon
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb' s and Otsuka' s Abilify
• Life-Cycle Management of Atypical Antipsychotics
• Competition from New Therapies: How Will Currently Marketed Atypicals Fare?
  • Johnson & Johnson' s Paliperidone
  • Organon' s Asenapine
  • Solvay/Wyeth/Lundbeck' s Bifeprunox
  • Marketed Atypicals vs
• Market Outlook for Atypical Antipsychotics Through 2015

• 1. Currently Marketed Atypical Antipsychotics
• 2. Market Shares of Antipsychotics, 2000-2005
• 3. Key Patent Expiries in the Antipsychotics Marketplace
• 4. Comparison of Atypical Antipsychotics on Various Parameters
• 5. First and Second Most-Preferred Atypical Antipsychotics, by Indication and Region, 2005
• 6. Marketed Atypical Antipsychotics: New Formulations and Nonapproved Indications Under Clinical Investigation
• 7. Promising "New-Generation" Atypical Antipsychotics

• 1. Atypical Antipsychotics, Sales Growth, 2000-2005
• 2. Projected Market Share of Current Leading Atypicals vs 2010-2015
• 3. Projected Regional Antipsychotics Sales, 2010 and 2015