中枢神経系創薬：統合失調症

Abstract

The antipsychotic market generated global sales of US$15.5 billion, accounting for 23% of global CNS sales in 2005. This chapter of CNS Drug Discoveries focuses on schizophrenia.

The antipsychotic market generated global sales of US$15.5 billion, accounting for 23% of global CNS sales in 2005, growing by 11% year on year. The market has evolved since the 1950s when the first conventional or typical antipsychotics were introduced, followed by atypical antipsychotics in the late 1990s with better tolerability profiles.

Schizophrenia is one of the major psychotic disorders and the WHO estimates that approximately 1% of the world' s population at some point in life will be affected by schizophrenia, while 0.5% of all people will be afflicted by the disease at any given time (around 24 million people worldwide). The total economic burden of schizophrenia in 1990 was estimated to be US$32.5 billion (equivalent to US$47.6 billion today after consumer price index adjustment). Conversely, the total costs of anxiety disorders, whilst ten times more prevalent than schizophrenia, amounted to US$42 billion annually.

Global antipsychotic market

The antipsychotic market has witnessed strong growth during the last five years as the atypical antipsychotics have become established in the market and companies have sought to expand their utility in the acute and long-term treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar disorders. While atypical antipsychotics now account for over 80% of global sales there has been a radical slow down in the last 18 months due to concerns over safety. This finding has resulted in the FDA requesting additional warnings to be placed on all the leading atypical antipsychotic labels.

By 2012, the leadership position within the antipsychotic market will change as today' s leading brands go off patent and companies launch their third generation atypical antipsychotics and new manufacturers enter the market.

Table of Contents

SCHIZOPHRENIA

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• THE FACTS
  • What is schizophrenia and why are we interested in it?
    • Symptoms associated with schizophrenia
    • Schematic depicting mood swings in bipolar disorder
• PATIENT STATISTICS
  • Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
• PATIENT MODEL
  • Summary of patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E
• DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
• DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS

GLOBAL SCHIZOPHRENIA MARKET

• Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion)
• GLOBAL SALES SPLIT
  • Global sales split (2005A)
  • Prescription usage split (2005A)
  • The major players
    • Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2005A)
    • Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2006E)
  • Players and Products in 2005 & 2006
  • Players and Products in 2012
    • Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2012E)
• CURRENT TREATMENTS
  • Leading Brands
    • Comparison of leading antipsychotic drugs
  • Current Products Patent Exposure
    • Patent Exposure of Leading Antipsychotic Brands
• ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
  • Atypical antipsychotics
  • Other Agents
• ATYPICAL ANTIPSYCHOTICS
  • Abilify (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka)
  • Geodon/Zeldox (Pfizer)
  • Risperdal (Johnson & Johnson)
  • Seroquel (AstraZeneca)
  • Zyprexa (Eli Lilly)
• Other atypical antipsychotics:
  • Serdolect (Lundbeck)
  • Lullan
  • Clozaril/Leponex (Novartis)
  • Solian (sanofi-aventis)
• GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 - 2012
  • Sales Forecasts of Current Leading Antipsychotics
  • Model assumptions
• NEW DRUGS IN R&D
  • Drugs in Development to Treat Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder
• ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
  • Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder
  • D/5-HT receptor antagonists
• D/5-HT receptor antagonists
  • Asenapine (Pfizer/Organon)
  • Bifeprunox (Wyeth/Solvay/Lundbeck)
  • Blonanserin (Dainippon Sumitomo)
    • Clinical Efficacy of Blonanserin
  • Iloperidone (Vanda Pharmaceutical)
    • Safety Profile of Iloperidone vs. Approved Antipsychotics
  • Paliperidone (Johnson & Johnson)
• GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III SCHIZOPHRENIA DRUGS 2006 - 2012
  • Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental Antipsychotic Drugs
  • Model assumptions
• ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
  • New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat Schizophrenia/Bipolar Disorder
  • Lurasidone (Dainippon Sumitomo/Merck & Co.)
  • Ocaperidone (Neuro3d)
  • SGS518 (Eli Lilly/Saegis Pharmaceuticals)
  • Talnetant (GlaxoSmithKline)
    • Talnetant Efficacy and Safety Profile
    • Talnetant Cognitive Effects
  • ABT-089 (Abbott)
  • ORG 24448 (Akzo Nobel/Cortex Pharmaceuticals)
  • Vabicaserin (Wyeth)
• GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II ANTIPSYCHOTIC DRUGS 2005-2012
  • Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental Antipsychotic Drugs
  • Model assumptions
• COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS
  • CR Analysis of Antipsychotic Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug Class
• COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
  • CR Analysis of Antipsychotics Approved by 2012 - Based on Company
  • WINNERS & LOSERS
    • Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the Antipsychotic Market by 2012
  • Winners
  • Losers
• DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
  • Antipsychotic Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development
• SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 1
  • Assessment of antipsychotic efficacy in schizophrenia
  • Assessment of antipsychotic efficacy in bipolar disorder
• SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 2
  • Phase transition probability
    • Probability of launch
• SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 3
  • Patient Model
    • Summary of US Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts
    • Summary of European (Top 5) Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts
    • Summary of Japanese Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts
• SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 4
  • Global Antipsychotic Drug Sales 2005A-2012E
• SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 5
  • Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
    • Key Antipsychotic Drugs on the Market by 2012
• SCHIZOPHRENIA GLOSSARY
• SCHIZOPHRENIA REFERENCES
• ACRONYMS