航空業界における成長機会と投資機会の分析

Abstract

Having recovered from the effects of 9/11 in 2001, SARS outbreak in 2002, and Iraq war in 2003, the commercial aerospace industry is back on the growth track with many aerospace companies witnessing improved sales and profits during the first nine months of 2004 compared to the same period in 2003. Although aircraft orders are still to match the peak levels of 2000-2001, global economic recovery, stock market perception, and regulatory items are creating new opportunities for aerospace companies. Stricter security standards have led to growth in certain aerospace segments such as explosive detectives, training, and simulation. Available seat miles (ASMs), revenue passenger miles (RPMs), and passenger load factor (PLF) are also showing strong year-over-year growth, thereby reflecting the current health of the airlines industry.

Frost & Sullivans Aerospace Financial Benchmarking and Analysis (FBA) service presents a broad outline of the aerospace industry, highlighting major market and financial trends in key growth segments. It supports all investment and financial analysis needs of decision makers for the above segments, and provides a comprehensive financial analysis of leading U.S. aerospace firms. The current study focuses on four key growth segments of commercial aerospace, namely, business jets, fractional ownership, maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO), and avionics.

Business Jets Expected to be Part of the High-Margin Segment

Business jets are emerging as one of the most lucrative segments in the aerospace industry and are expected to grow by 11 percent in the next 3-6 months (4Q04-1Q05). "Executives in business jet companies forecast a brighter future in the next 4-5 quarters largely driven by fractional ownership, improvement in economy, accelerated bonus depreciation, and steady stock markets," observes the analyst of this research.

The phenomenal growth in business aviation can be attributed to superior connectivity made possible through 5,300 airports in the United States compared to the 558 served by commercial airlines. In order to cash in on this trend, business jet makers are aggressively launching new aircraft models tailored to suit different needs. Fractional ownership (FO) has also contributed to the success of business aircraft, particularly in the past 3-5 years. Although the overdependence on fractional programs is gradually declining, most big business jet makers continue to have majority of their orders coming in from FO providers.

Fractional Ownership and Third-Party MRO Show Potential for Growth

The FO and MRO segments are expected to grow by more than 15 percent in 2004-2005. FO has a great future and more than 50 percent of orders and backlogs with aircraft manufacturers are estimated to be accounted for by FO companies. The 25-hour flying time packages recently offered by FO companies are also attracting more number of domestic first class passengers.

Independent MRO shops are also thriving as outsourcing gains popularity due to changing dynamics in the airline industry. "The independent MRO shops enjoy a considerable cost advantage over the captive shops in many of the leading airlines," says the analyst. "Moreover, the emergence of low-cost carriers that prefer to outsource most of their non-core activities has also contributed significantly to growth of third-party MRO business."

Frost & Sullivan Growth Partnership Service

Based on extensive and in-depth research, real-world consulting work, and new theories tested in hundreds of companies across many industries, Frost & Sullivan has evolved its Growth Partnership Services (GPS) program that provides established and emerging firms with powerful growth visions. Moving beyond token mission statements, GPS provides an actionable vision to growth consulting partners by illustrating how key intelligence and strategic research based on defined goals can guide day-to-day behavior and overall company direction. The foundation of Frost & Sullivans GPS includes:

• Assisting companies to reach their full potential in the core business
• Providing growth strategies to help companies expand into related businesses
• Preemptively redefining the core business during market turbulence
• Applying the Frost & Sullivan framework to identify and address common mistakes resulting from misaligned corporate strategies
• Recommending growth management strategies through continuous partnership

To maximize the potential for growth within a firms internal and external environment, Frost & Sullivan consultants can facilitate the creation of strategic programs that deliver improved market success. Frost & Sullivans strengths lie in combining strategic understanding with market expertise and applying these with absolute commitment to its clients growth.

Table of Contents

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary

2 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

Introduction and Methodology

• Introduction
• Methodology

3 INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Market Overview and Industry Fundamentals

• Introduction
• Highlights of Industry Fundamentals

Analysis of Selected Growth Sectors

• Business Jet Market
• Fractional Ownership Market
• Commercial MRO Market
• Commercial Avionics Market

4 FINANCIAL BENCHMARKING

Frost & Sullivan Growth Monitor

• Frost & Sullivan Aerospace Growth Monitor

Industry Profitability

• Income Statement Analysis
• Profitability Ratios
• Fixed Cost Analysis

5 VALUATION

Frost & Sullivan Aerospace Universe

Frost & Sullivan Aerospace Index

Company Analysis

• Stock Performance
• Valuation Multiples