ピコ・プロジェクター市場セグメント分析：2008年

Abstract

A study of the use of lasers and LEDs as an illumination source for integrated and companion pico-projection systems.

Quick Facts

• Date of Release: February 2008
• Publisher: Insight Media
• Authors: Matthew Brennesholtz, Chris Chinnock
• Number of Pages: 97

The Need:

Pico-projectors, projectors the size of a cell phone or even small enough to integrate into a cell phone, are a topic of active development and products are expected in 2008. This is a new product category and there is no historical data on markets, prices or sales. There was a need to examine this nascent market carefully to see how it is likely to develop, who is likely to buy these projectors and what prices they are likely to pay.

Report Objective:

These pico-projectors are expected to use either laser, LED or hybrid laser/LED illumination. The objective of this report is to apply the price, performance and system level knowledge about lasers and LEDs developed in the Laser and LED Projection Reports to the special needs of the pico-projector market. The goal is to generate realistic forecasts based on engineering analysis of price and performance, plus business, market and competitive analysis to guide the developments by companies working in the field.

The 2008 edition of this report reflects the many advancements noted at CES 08 and additional interviews and analysis based on feedback from the November 2007 release of the report.

Highlights:

• Descriptions of the key sub-markets within the expected pico-projector market.
• Identification of which sub-markets are best served by integrated pico-projectors and which are best served by companion, stand-alone, pico-projectors.
• Identification of the key requirements for both integrated and companion pico-projectors.
• Evaluation of the various imaging technologies proposed for pico-projectors and an evaluation of their ability to meet market requirements
• Forecast BOM cost estimates for both laser and LED-based projectors to serve the markets. BOMs are estimated for 11 variations on pico-projector designs
• Forecasts of the total pico-projector unit sales.
• Forecasts for pico-projector sales revenues.
• Identification of the key players in the pico-projector field.
• Evaluation of competitive technologies that could cut into the expected pico-projector market.

This new addition:

• Adds more details on the penetration adoption models used to forecast companion and integrated pico projectors
• Significantly increases the unit and revenue forecasts
• Updates the bill of material analysis
• Adds a new table summarizing all the major players (component and pico projector) and their status of development and engagement
• Updates the pico projector technology comparative analysis for both integrated and companion projectors

Table of Contents

1 Description of the Current Market

• 1.1. Description of the Expected Market for Pico-Projectors
• 1.2. Key Market Trends
  • 1.2.1. Handheld Devices
  • 1.2.2. Desktop Systems
• 1.3. Market Pull vs Technology Push
• 1.4. Shortcomings of Current Displays

2 Projector Requirements

• 2.1. Key Technical Requirements
  • 2.1.1. Integrated Projectors
  • 2.1.2. Companion Projectors
• 2.2. Advantages of Laser Illumination
• 2.3. Technology Comparison
  • 2.3.1. Single Scanning Mirror
  • 2.3.2. Two Scanning Mirrors
  • 2.3.3. Color Sequential Transmissive LCD
  • 2.3.4. DLP
  • 2.3.5. LCoS CFA
  • 2.3.6. Color Sequential LCoS

3 System BOM Evaluation

• 3.1. BOMs for Integrated Projector Modules
• 3.2. BOMs for Companion Projectors
• 3.3. BOM Conclusion

4 Forecasts

• 4.1. Introduction
• 4.2. Total Available Market (TAM)
• 4.3. Expected Forecast for Pico-Projectors
  • 4.3.1. Companion Pico-Projectors
  • 4.3.2. Integrated/Embedded Pico Projectors
  • 4.3.3. Composite Expected Forecast
• 4.4. Composite Optimistic Forecasts
• 4.5. Composite Conservative Forecast
• 4.6. Forecast Conclusions
• 4.7. Discussion of Assumptions and Penetrations

5 SWOT Analysis of Lasers vs. LEDs

• 5.1. Pico-Projectors vs Competitive Display Technologies
  • 5.1.1. Strengths
  • 5.1.2. Weaknesses
  • 5.1.3. Opportunities
  • 5.1.4. Threats
• 5.2. LEDs vs. Lasers
  • 5.2.1. Strengths
  • 5.2.2. Weaknesses
  • 5.2.3. Opportunities
  • 5.2.4. Threats
• 5.3. Lasers vs. LEDs
  • 5.3.1. Strengths
  • 5.3.2. Weaknesses
  • 5.3.3. Opportunities
  • 5.3.4. Threats

6 Major Players

• 6.1. Current players
• 6.2. Other Likely Players
• 6.3. Other Technologies
  • 6.3.1. Direct view displays
  • 6.3.2. Portable projection screens
  • 6.3.3. Pocket Projectors
  • 6.3.4. Rollable and Foldable Displays
  • 6.3.5. Head Mounted Displays

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Existing Market for Pico-Projectors
• Figure 2: Publicity Photo of Integrated Pico-Projectors from Microvision
• Figure 3: Photo of a Working Prototype Companion Pico-Projector from Microvision
• Figure 4: Photo of a Working Prototype Companion Pico-Projector from Upstream
• Figure 5: Photo of a Mock-up of an Integrated Pico-Projector from Microvision
• Figure 6: Apple iPhone Handheld Device
• Figure 7: Cell Phone with Virtual Keyboard
• Figure 8: Bluetooth and Camera Equipped Pen
• Figure 9: Polymer Vision Rollable Display
• Figure 10: Myvu Personal Eyewear with Video iPod
• Figure 11: Microvision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner
• Figure 12: DLP Imagers and ASICs Optimized for Pico-projectors
• Figure 13: Displaytech SVGA Imager Compared to TI SVGA Imager & ASICs
• Figure 14: Syndiant WVGA Compared to TI SVGA Imager
• Figure 15: Syndiant and TI ASICs
• Figure 16: Historical Consumer Electronics Penetration Rates
• Figure 17: Pico Projector WW Total Available Market (TAM)
• Figure 18: Expected Penetration of Companion Pico-Projectors into the Market
• Figure 19: Expected Unit Sales of Companion Pico-Projectors
• Figure 20: Expected Penetration of Integrated Pico-Projectors into the Market
• Figure 21: Expected Unit Sales of Integrated Pico-Projectors
• Figure 22: Composite Expected Penetration of Pico-Projectors into the TAM
• Figure 23: Composite Expected Unit sales of Pico-Projectors
• Figure 24: Expected Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast
• Figure 25: Composite Optimistic Penetration of Pico-Projectors
• Figure 26: Composite Optimistic Unit Sales of Pico-Projectors
• Figure 27: Composite Optimistic Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast
• Figure 28: Composite Conservative Penetration of Pico-Projectors
• Figure 29: Conservative Unit Sales of Pico-Projectors
• Figure 30: Conservative Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast
• Figure 31: Pico-Projector Unit Sales Forecast Summary
• Figure 32: Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast Summary
• Figure 33: Four Sample Pico-Projectors from CES 2008
• Figure 34: Portable Screen Used with a Pocket Projector
• Figure 35: Flexible Display from LG.Philips LCD
• Figure 36: Personal Display Glasses from Mobintech

Table of Tables

• Table 1: Projector categories that could use laser and LED illumination
• Table 2: Products That Could Include Pico-Projectors
• Table 3: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers
• Table 4: Development Matrix Comparison Tables
• Table 5: Integrated Pico-Projector Development Matrix (2010 performance/price goals)
• Table 6: Companion Pico-Projector Development Matrix (2009 performance/price goals)
• Table 7: Pico-Projector Human Factors Unknowns
• Table 8: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with Single-Mirror Scan
• Table 9: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and Lasers
• Table 10: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and LEDs
• Table 11: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Large Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and LEDs
• Table 12: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with Two-Mirror Scan
• Table 13: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with 0.41" SVGA DLP and LEDs
• Table 14: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with 0.23" HVGA DLP and LEDs
• Table 15: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with LCoS CFA Panel and White LED
• Table 16: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Color-Sequential Transmissive LCD and LEDs
• Table 17: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS and LEDs
• Table 18: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Large Color-Sequential LCoS and LEDs
• Table 19: Expected Pico-Projector ASP Forecast
• Table 20: Low Pico-Projector ASP Forecast
• Table 21: High Pico-Projector ASP Forecast
• Table 22: Known Players in the Pocket and Pico-Projector Business