米国における主要食品分野に対する低炭水化物食品の影響

Americans have a love-hate relationship with dieting and exercise. They purchase millions of diet books and invest in gym memberships and exercise equipment but the number of calories they consume continues to rise. The majority of U.S. adults and 15% of U.S. children are overweight or obese. In addition, many illnesses that can be mitigated with diet and exercise, such as diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension, have become more prevalent. Low fat dietary guidelines and diet programs, focused on reducing fat intake, were popular through the 1980s and into the 1990s. Their introduction and popularity, however, mirror a period of rising growth rates for obesity, now at epidemic levels.

Through the 1990s, as the low fat diets failed to prevent weight gain, low carbohydrate diets, popularized by Dr. Robert Atkins and originally frowned upon by the medical establishment, began to earn millions of adherents and gain credibility. Within this context, Americans have embraced the promise of the low carb lifestyle. According to Mintel's exclusive consumer research, 40% of the U.S. adult population, or an estimated 83.6 million adults report that they have reduced their carbohydrate intake. This potential market is comprised of 7% or 14.6 million U.S. adults who are currently on a low carb diet. It also includes 33% or 69 million U.S. adults who are carb aware (e.g. they are not officially on a low carb diet but have cut down on their sugar and carb intake).

Eating habits and perceptions of carbohydrates have begun to change. Consumers report that they are eating less pasta and potatoes and consuming more meat, seafood, and poultry. However, unit sales data has shifted by only a few percentage points for many high carb products. It remains to be seen whether consumers have fundamentally changed their eating habits for the long run or whether they will abandon low carb products in favor of the next best diet to come along. However, there is ample evidence to encourage food manufacturers, retailers and restaurateurs to include low carb products in their product portfolios.

In this report Mintel has not sought to provide a market size for the Low Carb market. Rather, this report focuses on an understanding of key food and beverage products which would likely be significantly impacted by the low carb trend (i.e., bread, potatoes, cheese, eggs, etc.). Because the low carb trend is relatively new to most consumers, providing a market size and understanding of the direct impact of this 'diet' is not possible at this stage (for most products). As a result, Mintel presents sales and unit data on key categories which have begun to experience changes. Although direct correlation cannot be made to the changes in some of these categories, it is believed that the low carb trend has played a significant role and will increasingly impact certain industries.

In addition, this report highlights the changing nature of consumer eating habits, as they pertain to a low carb lifestyle (whether consumers report a change in eating certain foods). The report also informs readers of consumer attitudes toward issues relating to the low carb lifestyle, such as incidence of being on a low carb diet officially versus cutting down on carbs (and which demographic groups are most likely to be on a low carb diet), why low carb diets are chosen, how consumers feel about staying on low carb diets long-term, as well as other related issues that enable companies to understand how consumers are reacting to this trend.

For the purposes of this report, the term "Low Carb" has been used as self-defined by manufacturer or marketer. This generally includes products that have fewer carbs than their normal carb counterparts, including low carb, reduced carb, etc. The FDA has not yet officially defined these terms but expects to do so in 2005.

Contents

INTRODUCTION & ABBREVIATIONS

• Introduction
• Other Relevant Reports
• Definition
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Americans have embraced the low carb lifestyle
• Americans need to lose weight
• Interest in reducing carbs has followed the typical trajectory for a food trend
• Consumers appear to be in the nascent stages of changing their buying patterns
• Food manufacturers and retailers are increasing offerings of low carb products at a rapid pace
• Low carbers plan on limiting carbs for life
• Outlook appears bright

MARKET FACTORS

• Diet and exercise
• Diet
• Figure 1: Incidence of U.S. adults trying to lose weight, maintain weight or eat fewer calories, 1996, 1998 and 2000
• Exercise
• Figure 2: Percent of adults exercising or eating fewer calores, 1996, 1998 and 2000
• Caloric and fat intake
• Figure 3: Percent of adults exercising, eating fewer calores, less fat or both to lose weight, 1996, 1998 and 2000
• The majority of Americans are overweight or obese
• Figure 4: Incidence of overweight and obese Americans aged 18 and older, 1994-2002
• Figure 5: Prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults, by demographic group, 1991, 1995 and 2000
• Children are not immune to obesity
• Baby boomers and aging Americans face weight gain
• Figure 6: American population by age, 1998 and 2003
• Incidence of diabetes on the rise
• Low carb diets beginning to reshape the image of healthy food
• Low carb is following the continuum for nutrition trends
• Figure 7: Flowchart of how a nutrition topic becomes mainstream
• Food consumption patterns
<
• The 'food pyramid' revised guidelines
• A definition of low carb will be established

SUPPLY STRUCTURE

• Low carb-focused companies/brands
• Atkins Nutritionals
• Keto Foods
• Carbolite Foods
• CarbSense
• Major food manufacturers/low carb activities
• Unilever Overview
• Carb Options Brand
• Unilever/Slim Fast
• Nestle (Stouffer's Lean Cuisine)
• Hain Celestial (Carb Fit)
• Other low carb activity in the food segment
• Beverage manufacturers' low carb activities
• Anheuser-Busch Companies (Michelob Ultra)
• PepsiCo (Tropicana and Pepsi Edge)
• The Coca Cola Company (Minute Maid and Coke Ultra)
• Cadbury/Schweppes
• Other low carb activity in the beverage segment
• Restaurants and low carb activities
• Ruby Tuesday's
• Burger King
• Subway
• Other low carb activity in the restaurant segment

CATEGORY TRENDS

• Introduction
• Changing consumption patterns for key food products
• Figure 8: Incidence of change in consumption of key food and drink products in the last year, February 2004
• Traditionally high carb products
• Bread
• Figure 9: Changes in consumption of bread in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Bread/Wheat industry response
• Pasta
• Figure 10: Changes in consumption of pasta in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Pasta industry response
• Potatoes and potato chips
• Figure 11: Changes in consumption of potatoes in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Figure 12: Changes in consumption of potato chips in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Potato industry response
• Cookies/Cake
• Figure 13: Changes in consumption of cookies/cake in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Boxed foods
• Figure 14: Changes in consumption of boxed foods in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Frozen meals
• Figure 15: Changes in Consumption of frozen meals in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• High protein foods
• Meat/Poultry/Seafood
• Figure 16: Changes in consumption of meat/poultry/seafood in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Eggs
• Figure 17: Changes in consumption of eggs in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Nuts
• Figure 18: Changes in consumption of nuts in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Fruits and vegetables
• Vegetables
• Figure 19: Changes in consumption of vegetables in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Fruits
• Figure 20: Changes in consumption of fruit in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Dairy products
• Milk and yogurt
• Figure 21: Changes in consumption of milk and yogurt in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Cheese
• Figure 22: Changes in consumption of cheese in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Ice cream
• Figure 23: Changes in consumption of ice cream in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Beverages
• Regular soda/pop
• Figure 24: Changes in consumption of regular soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Diet soda/pop
• Figure 25: Changes in consumption of diet soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Alcohol and beer
• Figure 26: Changes in consumption of alcohol and beer in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Sales and volume changes for key food categories
• Figure 27: Sales and volume changes for key food categories, 2003 versus 2002
• High carbohydrate product changes
• Traditional high protein product changes
• Dairy product changes

THE CONSUMER

• Introduction
• Low carb appeal
• Figure 28: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004
• Graph 1: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004
• Figure 29: Incidence of low carb dieting, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 30: Incidence of low carb dieting, by age, February 2004
• Figure 31: Incidence of low carb dieting, by household income, February 2004
• Figure 32: Incidence of low carb dieting, by race, February 2004
• Figure 33: Incidence of low carb dieting, by region, February 2004
• Figure 34: Incidence of low carb dieting, by presence of children, February 2004
• Length of time cutting carbs
• Figure 35: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004
• Graph 2: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004
• Figure 36: Length of time cutting carbs, by age, February 2004
• Figure 37: Length of time cutting carbs, by education level, February 2004
• Figure 38: Length of time cutting carbs, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004
• General attitudes toward nutrition and dieting
• Figure 39: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, February 2004
• Figure 40: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 41: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by age, February 2004
• Figure 42: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by household income, February 2004
• Figure 43: Attitudes toward diet and nutrition, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products
• Figure 44: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, February 2004
• Figure 45: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Goals of low carb dieters and those identified as carb aware
• Figure 46: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, February 2004
• Figure 47: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 48: Reasons for limiting carb intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Future plans for limiting carb intake
• Figure 49: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, February 2004
• Figure 50: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Graph 3: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Success with a low carb diet
• Figure 51: Reported success using a low carb diet, February 2004
• Figure 52: Reported success using a low carb diet, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 53: Reported success using a low carb diet, by marital status, February 2004
• Figure 54: reported success using a low carb diet, by region, February 2004
• Figure 55: reported success using a low carb diet for carb dieter and carb aware respondents, February 2004
• Has dining out behavior changed?
• Figure 56: Dining out behavior among low carb dieters/carb aware respondents, February 2004
• Figure 57: Dining out behavior, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004
• Summary and conclusions

THE FUTURE

• A large current and potential market exists
• New product introductions are on the rise
• Manufacturers may consider creating low carb products for children
• Diet "franchises" show no sign of abating
• Taste, calories, and price matter
• "Better for you," "no added sugars" and similar positioning should have merit
• Government and public policy efforts will ramp up
• Unit sales will serve as the bellwether for the low carb trend
• Lessons from Low/No Fat
• Backlash has begun

APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

APPENDIX: NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS

• Altria Group: Kraft Foods North America Carb Well Original Barbecue Sauce
• American Health: Carb Answer Fudge Brownie Mix
• Atkins Nutritionals: Atkins Quick Cuisine Chocolate Chip Muffin & Bread Mix
• Birds Eye Foods: Birds Eye Voila! Complete Meals
• Coca-Cola: Coca-Cola C2
• Dean Foods: Dean's New Sour Cream Packaging
• DrSoy Nutrition: Dr. Soy Snacker Low carb Snack Bar Extension
• International Frozen Foods: Culinary Delights Omelet Starters
• Keto Foods & Snacks: Keto Sauce Tomato Sauce Extension
• Marigold Foods: Kemps Carb Promise Ice Cream
• Nestle USA: Carnation Instant Breakfast New Low Carb Energy Drink Mix
• Organic Milling: Nutritious Living 40-30-30 Cereal
• Rexall Sundown: Richardson Labs Carb Solutions RTD Fruit Smoothie
• Russell Stover Candies: Russell Stover Low Carb Marshmallow Egg
• Sara Lee Foods: Atkins Quick Cuisine Supreme Pizza
• Silhouette Brands: Silhouette Skinny Carb Ice Cream Bar
• Todd's Health and Fitness Products: Todd's Fit Foods Boboli Pizza-Crust Bread
• George Weston Bakeries: Entenmann's Carb Counting Low Carb Sweet Goods

APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• Consumer Research
• Sampling & Weighting
• Presentation & Definition
• Further Analysis
• Trade Research
• Informal trade research
• Formal trade research
• Desk & Internet Research
• Sources
• Definitions
• Forecasts

APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL?

• Mintel Publications
• Mintel Services
• Product retrieval
• Retail audits
• Tailored research
• Global New Products Database
• Research Support/Consultancy/MIC
• The Mintel Information Centre (MiC)
• PR Research