英国の投資債券および国民貯蓄銀行商品市場

This report looks at issues in the UK investment bonds and national savings market. Mintel defines investment bonds as non-qualifying, single-premium, whole-of-life policies. National savings comprise of current and savings accounts, stocks and shares, pensions and mortgages, and insurance.

Key factors that impact supply and demand for these products are analysed, as well as consumer attitudes toward investments. Market size and dynamics also reveal current trends among investment bonds and national savings products.

Despite a previous slowdown in growth, forecasts show rises in the value of investment vehicles. Tax implications, state pension provisions, stockmarket volatility and low interest rates will impact the demand for investment and savings options.

By emphasising high return on investment through advertising, consumers will feel better assured about taking financial risks. Mintel examines how income levels and changing socio-economic groups will impact investment bonds and national savings in the future.

What will influence investment bonds and national savings next?

Contents

Introduction and Abbreviations

• Methodology
• Global information and research
• Consumer research
• ACORN

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

• A range of options for investors
• The flight to safety
• With-profits lead the investment bond market downwards...
• ...but NS&I is thriving
• A mixture of household names and specialists
• Targeted marketing the order of the day
• A fifth of ABs hold an investment bond
• Safety still key for investors
• Fighting against the alternatives

Definitions and Background

• Pooling risk and deferring tax...
• ...at the cost of flexibility
• Types of investment bonds
• With-profits bonds
• Unit-linked bonds
• Guaranteed bonds
• Distribution bonds
• Corporate bonds and bond funds
• National Savings and Investment products
• Premium Bonds
• Fixed term products
• Variable term products

Market Drivers

• Trust and market conditions key
• Figure 1: Bond and NS&I market dynamics
• Spend now, save later?
• Figure 2: Total PDI, consumer expenditure, savings and the savings ratio, at constant 1999 prices, 1999-2008
• Taxing times for savers
• Figure 3: Number of basic and higher rate taxpayers, 1995/96-2004/05
• Ageing population and the search for income
• Figure 4: UK Population growth, by age group, 2001-25
• Inheritances boost the size of the market
• Figure 5: Value of estates passing on death, 2000/01
• Low interest rates favour bond investments
• Figure 6: Bank of England base rate, 1994-2004
• Falling stockmarkets offer a boost to some safe haven investments...
• Figure 7: Value of the FTSE All Share and FTSE 100 indices, January 1996-January 2004
• ...but destroy the reputation of others
• Falling over the precipice
• Precipice bonds compromise some of the biggest names
• "It could be you"
• Can the market see past transparency?
• FSA moves to ensure fair treatment of with-profits policyholders

Market Size

• A victim of circumstances?
• Figure 8: Total new investment bond sales, 1999-2003
• Another nail hammered into the with-profits coffin...
• Figure 9: Mix of investment bond sales by value of new premiums, 1999-2003
• ...but can rival products take up the slack?
• Average with-profits purchase back to 1999 levels
• Figure 10: New with-profits bond sales, 1999-2003
• Unit-linked bonds benefit from the market recovery
• Figure 11: New unit-linked bond sales, 1999-2003
• Nervous investors turn to guaranteed equity products
• Figure 12: New guaranteed equity bond sales, 1999-2003
• Distribution bonds well suited to uncertain times
• Figure 13: New distribution bond sales, 1999-2003
• Sales of income and growth bonds halve
• Figure 14: New income and growth bond sales, 1999-2003
• The rise and fall of the bond fund
• Figure 15: Gross retail sales of unit trusts & OEICs, including UK bond funds, March 2001-March 2004
• NS&I investments reach record levels...
• Figure 16: Total investments held with NS&I, 1994-2004
• ...with Premium Bonds driving sales upwards
• Figure 17: Premium Bond sales and total stock, 1994-2004
• NS&I far from a one-product provider

Key Players

• AIG Life top sales charts
• Figure 18: Single premium life business, 2000-02
• Halifax shows strong growth...
• ...but Standard Life's experiences highlight the risks
• With-profits bonuses continue to slide
• Figure 19: Selected with-profits past performance values, February 2004

Distribution

• IFA sales still drive the market...
• Figure 20: Distribution trends in the investment bond market, 2000-03
• ...but they are flagging
• Direct salesforces and tied agents still have a role to play
• IFAs turn away from with-profits bonds...
• Figure 21: Distribution of with-profits bonds, 2000-03
• ... with a similar picture for income and growth bonds
• Figure 22: Distribution of income & growth bonds, 2000-03
• Figure 23: Distribution of guaranteed equity bonds, 2000-03
• Riskier bonds benefit from IFAs' knowledge
• Figure 24: Distribution of unit-linked bonds, 2000-03
• Figure 25: Distribution of distribution bonds, 2000-03
• NS&I reaping the rewards of a revolution in product distribution...
• ...and building links with IFAs has become a priority

Advertising and Promotion

• Press and direct mail drive adspend
• Figure 26: Bond adspend by outlet type, years to March 2003 and March 2004
• Selling guarantees?
• Figure 27: Bond adspend by product type, years to March 2003 and March 2004
• High street names top the list of advertisers
• Figure 28: Bond adspend by provider, years to March 2003 and March 2004
• How to sell rewards without risk
• NS&I looks to emphasise their whole product range

The Consumer

• A hidden market?
• Figure 29: Investment ownership, by gender and socio-economic group, March 2004
• Risking it all on retirement?
• Figure 30: Investment ownership, by age, March 2004
• A third of affluent retirees invest in NS&I products
• Figure 31: Investment ownership, by Mintel's Special Groups, March 2004
• Broadsheets the main battleground for advertisers
• Figure 32: Investment ownership, by media usage, March 2004
• Can providers sell to the mass-market?
• Figure 33: Investment ownership, by supermarket usage and commercial television viewing, March 2004
• Potential for a link-up between supermarket banks and NS&I?
• Safety first
• Figure 34: Key factors when selecting investments, by gender and socio-economic group, March 2004
• Tax is key for the more affluent
• Older investors look for flexibility
• Figure 35: Key factors when selecting investments, by age, March 2004
• The price of peace of mind
• Londoners most prepared to commit their savings over the long term
• Figure 36: Key factors when selecting investments, by location, March 2004
• Broadsheet readers the ideal target group
• Figure 37: Key factors when selecting investments, by media usage, March 2004
• Preaching to the unconvertible?
• Figure 38: Key factors when selecting investments, by commercial television viewing, March 2004
• Sainsbury's customers show some potential
• Figure 39: Key factors when selecting investments, by supermarket usage, March 2004

The Future

• 'Short memory' syndrome
• Rebuilding trust
• Can bonds fit into the new financial services environment?
• Regulation and the with-profits market
• Replacing the with-profits bond
• Can providers benefit from the crisis in confidence in the pensions industry?

Forecast

• Figure 40: Forecast of total new investment bond sales, by value, 2003-09
• Figure 41: Forecast of volume and average value, 2003-09
• Figure 42: Forecast of national savings and investments, 2003/04-2008-09

Appendix: Research Methodology