英国における住宅/不動産市場

The subject of housing has become something of a national obsession, with the press devoting endless column inches to both the housing market and other property-related issues. The plethora of surveys and reports that are published every month maintains a fever-pitch approach to this coverage.

Many homeowners now view themselves as 'experts' on the housing market in their particular area of the country. At least, they can tell you the price of every property that has come up for sale in their town or village over the last three months. Ironically, in some ways this perception is actually not far from the truth, as the whole concept of a national housing market is very much a misnomer. Instead, the national picture is simply an amalgamation of the many and varied local housing markets which often act in complete isolation from the rest of the country.

This report aims to provide an analysis and assessment of some of the key housing-related issues that are currently affecting the UK property market. In order to gain a greater appreciation of these important themes, exclusive consumer research is used to shed new light on a number of salient issues concerning homes, housing and property. Establishing the impact of further base rate rises upon households' ability to maintain their mortgage repayments, and assessing people's future intentions with regards to moving home, it also highlights the key factors which ultimately affect people's choice of where they decide to live

Contents

Introduction and Abbreviations

Aims of the report

• Consumer research
• ACORN

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

• Population growth and household trends will boost housing demand
• Seven in ten properties are owner-occupied dwellings
• There is a strong need to increase the size of the housing stock
• Real house prices have considerably overshot their trend level
• But house prices are more likely to ease gradually than crash
• A fifth of consumers intend to buy a property in the next two years
• A quarter of borrowers would struggle with a 2% interest rate rise
• More than a quarter of homeowners plan to use their home as a pension
• The local neighbourhood is a key priority when deciding where to live
• Just over 1 million households currently own a second home

Market Factors

• Population growth will increase the overall demand for housing
• Figure 1: UK population, by age group, 1994-2009
• Future population growth will largely stem from the over-45s
• The prime first-time buyer age bracket reaches a trough in 2004
• Figure 2: Number of people aged 25-29, 1992-2012
• Women account for a larger proportion of the older age group
• Figure 3: UK population, by gender and age group, 2004 and 2009
• Over a quarter of the population live in London and the South East
• Figure 4: UK population, by region, 1996 and 2002
• South West has seen the largest internal net migration levels
• Figure 5: Internal migration, by region, 1996-2002
• Southern England and the East set for strongest growth
• Figure 6: UK population projections, by region, 2000-11
• Changes in household composition will affect housing demand
• Figure 7: Household composition, 1979-2002
• Properties people live in tend to reflect household composition
• Figure 8: Housing profile, by family type, 2001-02
• A rise in the number of households will boost housing demand
• Figure 9: Number and size of households in Great Britain, 1991-2009
• The South East will see the largest growth in household numbers
• Figure 10: Number of households in Great Britain, by region, 1991-2011
• Rate of owner-occupation has risen sharply in the last 30 years
• Figure 11: Proportion of households in Great Britain, by tenure, 1971-2002
• Strong desire to own a home will underpin owner-occupied sector
• Favourable economic conditions have boosted the housing market
• Strong government support for homeowners has been withdrawn
• Figure 12: Changes in provision of MITR, 1975-2000
• Changing lifestyles are also influencing housing demand

The Housing Stock

• Total stock of dwellings has more than trebled in last 100 years
• Figure 13: Stock of dwellings in Great Britain, 1801-2001
• Seven in ten properties are owner-occupied dwellings
• Figure 14: Stock of dwellings in Great Britain, by tenure, 1951-2002
• The private rented sector has grown in the last ten years
• Tenure of the housing stock varies considerably across the regions
• Figure 15: Stock of dwellings, by tenure and region, 2003
• The average age of a dwelling also varies on a regional basis
• Figure 16: Stock of dwellings in England, by year built and region, 2002
• Around one in 1,000 dwellings are demolished each year
• Figure 17: Annual gains and losses from the stock of dwellings, England, 1997/98-2002/03
• The number of housing starts has risen in the last few years
• Figure 18: Housebuilding: permanent dwellings started in the UK, by region, 2000/01-2003/04
• The need to increase the housing stock is recognised by government

House Prices

• The housing market has enjoyed a sustained period of growth
• Figure 19: Property transactions in England and Wales, 1982-2003
• House prices have more than doubled in the last six years
• Northern Britain has fuelled the growth in the last 12 months
• Figure 20: Average house prices, by region, first quarter 2004
• Real house prices have considerably overshot their trend level
• Figure 21: Real house prices in the UK, 1970-2003
• Traditional affordability indicators also point to a slowdown
• Figure 22: House price to earnings ratio, 1970-2003
• But low rates have meant borrowers could service higher debt levels
• Figure 23: Total mortgage payments relative to income, first-time buyers, 1988-2003
• Recent rate rises are starting to push affordability levels up
• High personal sector indebtedness exacerbates the potential problem
• Figure 24: Mortgage debt to households' disposable income, 1976-2003
• The future level of interest rates will therefore be critical
• There are signs that the housing market is cooling
• But house prices are more likely to ease gradually than crash

The Mortgage Market

• There are now more than 11 million mortgage accounts in the UK
• Total mortgage debt has risen to over £800 billion
• Figure 25: Total mortgage debt and annual growth rates, 1985-2003
• Mortgage lending rose to fresh highs during 2003
• Figure 26: Net and gross lending secured on dwellings, 1995-2003
• The growth in remortgage activity has been the key driver
• Figure 27: Gross advances, by type of loan, 1997-2003
• Mortgage equity withdrawal amounted to £57 billion in 2003
• First-time buyers account for just 30% of loans for house purchase
• Figure 28: Loans for house purchase, by type of borrower, 1997-2003
• Fixed-rate loans accounted for more than a third of lending in 2003
• Figure 29: Loans for house purchase and remortgages, by type of product, 1997-2003
• The equity release market is now worth more than £3 billion
• Figure 30: Equity release products, new advances and balances outstanding, 2002 and 2003
• The buy-to-let market has grown significantly in the last few years
• Figure 31: Buy-to-let market, new advances and balances outstanding, 1999-2003

The House Buying Process

• The home buying process is deemed to be too slow
• Figure 32: Average time between offer and moving into a property, England, by region, 2001/02
• Statutory Home Information Packs are seen as a solution
• HIPs form the centrepiece of the current Housing Bill
• The proposed introduction of HIPs has caused some controversy
• The Scottish Executive is proposing a different initiative

The Consumer - Moving Ahead

• Owner-occupation is the main form of housing tenure in the UK
• Figure 33: Housing tenure, June 2004
• More than a third of the population have an outstanding mortgage
• Just over a third of people live in rented accommodation
• More than half of all 35-54-year-olds are mortgage holders
• Figure 34: Housing tenure, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• Four in ten pre-/no family consumers rent privately or from the council
• Figure 35: Housing tenure, by lifestage, working status and marital status, June 2004
• Londoners are the least likely to own their properties
• Figure 36: Housing tenure, by TV region and ACORN category, June 2004
• Four in ten mid-market tabloid readers own their homes outright
• Figure 37: Housing tenure, by newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, June 2004
• Six in ten people plan to stay in their current accommodation
• Figure 38: Housing intentions, June 2004
• A fifth of consumers intend to buy a property in the next two years
• One in 15 people plan to move to new rented accommodation
• Over a third of 25-34-year-olds plan to buy a property in next two years
• Figure 39: Housing intentions, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• Almost a third of full-time workers intend to buy a property
• Figure 40: Housing intentions, by lifestage, working status and marital status, June 2004
• Only half of Londoners intend to stay in their current accommodation
• Figure 41: Housing intentions, by TV region and ACORN category, June 2004
• Three in ten broadsheet readers intend to buy a property
• Figure 42: Housing intentions, by newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, June 2004
• Almost four in ten private renters want to buy a property
• Figure 43: Housing intentions, by current tenure, June 2004

The Consumer - Rate Rises and Retirement Income

• Low interest rates have encouraged people to stretch their borrowing
• Further interest rate rises would impact on borrowers' ability to pay
• Over half of all borrowers feel they would pay less than £100 extra
• Figure 44: Extra amount payable if rates rise by 2%, June 2004
• Three in ten mortgage holders feel the increase would be over £100
• One in eight borrowers are oblivious to the impact of a rate rise
• The extra amount needed varies by length of mortgage term
• Figure 45: Extra amount payable if rates rise by 2%, by length of mortgage term, June 2004
• A quarter of 25-34-year-olds feel the impact would be over £150
• Figure 46: Extra amount payable if rates rise by 2%, by gender, age and socio-economic group,June 2004
• Almost six in ten third age borrowers would pay less than £100
• Figure 47: Extra amount payable if rates rise by 2%, by lifestage, working status and newspaper readership, June 2004
• Londoners feel that they would have to pay comparatively more
• Figure 48: Extra amount payable if rates rise by 2%, by TV region and ACORN category, June 2004
• A quarter of borrowers would find it very or fairly difficult to cope
• Figure 49: Coping with a 2% rate rise, by length of mortgage term, June 2004
• Borrowers with longer mortgage terms would face greater difficulty
• Ability to cope also varies by the potential increase in repayments
• Figure 50: Coping with a 2% rate rise, by extra amount payable, June 2004
• Younger borrowers are more vulnerable to rate rises
• Figure 51: Coping with a 2% rate rise, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• Borrowers at the third age lifestage would find it easier to cope
• Figure 52: Coping with a 2% rate rise, by lifestage, working status and newspaper readership,June 2004
• Borrowers in the North West tend to feel that they would struggle
• Figure 53: Coping with a 2% rate rise, by TV region and ACORN category, June 2004
• Property is often viewed as a key means of funding retirement
• Figure 54: View home as my retirement savings, June 2004
• Over a quarter of homeowners do plan to use their home as a pension
• Growth in equity release would boost the housing market
• Over a third of 45-54-year-olds view their home as a pension nest egg
• Figure 55: View home as my retirement savings, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• Londoners are more likely to see their home as a retirement fund
• Figure 56: View home as my retirement savings, by lifestage, TV region and technology usage,June 2004

The Consumer - Location, Location and Second Homes

• The local neighbourhood is a key priority when deciding where to live
• Figure 57: Reasons for choosing home location, 1996 and 2004
• Family, friends and schools can also prove to be influential
• Work often acts as a constraint on where people can live
• A fifth of consumers want a property that is suited to their lifestyle
• Affordability issues are inevitably a consideration for some people
• Around one in six consumers have a rural yearning
• Good schools are more important to first-time buyers
• Figure 58: Reasons for choosing home location, by housing intentions, June 2004
• Women are more likely to want to live close to family and friends
• Figure 59: Reasons for choosing home location, by gender and lifestage, June 2004
• Respondents in the family group are most concerned about schools
• Housing affordability issues are a concern to ABC1 18-34s
• Figure 60: Reasons for choosing home location, by age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• People in the North have a strong attachment to their areas
• Figure 61: Reasons for choosing home location, by TV region, June 2004
• The trend to flexible working will also affect property selection
• Over a third of consumers now need a place to work at home
• Figure 62: Important to have a place to work at home, June 2004
• Work/life balance initiatives are promoting home-based working
• ABs and 18-24-year-olds particularly value the ability to work at home
• Figure 63: Important to have a place to work at home, by gender, age and socio-economic group,June 2004
• Less than half of full-time workers need a place to work at home
• Figure 64: Important to have a place to work at home, by lifestage, working status and Mintel's Special Groups, June 2004
• Londoners are more likely to value somewhere to work at home
• Figure 65: Important to have a place to work at home, by TV region, technology usage and newspaper readership, June 2004
• Just over 1 million households currently own a second home
• Figure 66: Statements about second homes, June 2004
• Almost one in ten people hope to buy a second home in the UK
• One in six respondents intend or want to buy a home abroad
• Almost one in ten AB respondents own a second home
• Figure 67: Statements about second homes, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• Almost a quarter of ABC1 families want to buy a home abroad
• Figure 68: Statements about second homes, by lifestage, newspaper readership and Mintel's Special Groups, June 2004
• One in seven people in the Rising ACORN group own a second home
• Figure 69: Statements about second homes, by TV region and ACORN category, June 2004
• Nearly half of all consumers want to enter the buy-to-let market
• Figure 70: Statements about owning properties to rent out, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2004
• 18-34-year-olds are keen to become private landlords
• Consumers in London and the South are also keen to buy-to-let
• Figure 71: Statements about owning properties to rent out, by lifestage, TV region and newspaper readership, June 2004
• People can now enjoy housing gains without buying property

The Future

• Demand for housing is set to increase across the next few decades
• The rate of house building in the UK needs to increase
• A 'soft landing' is the most likely scenario for the housing market...
• ...but a more substantial slowdown is a possibility
• The research suggests a strong latent demand for buy-to-let properties
• The equity release market offers distinct potential for future growth

Forecast

• Figure 72: Forecast of gross advances, by type of lending, 2003-09
• Factors used in the forecast