米国の航空産業

Abstract

This report guides the reader through the complex reasons for historic financial losses and restructurings from in the airline industry from 2000 to 2006, and clearly states what Mintel believes lies ahead from 2007 to 2011.

This report focuses on domestic airlines, broadly examining the 11 largest carriers, and compares the fortunes of the legacy carriers with those of the low-cost carriers. It seeks to demonstrate who has had the competitive advantage recently, and how this will shape the industry going forward.

Economic and social factors are thoroughly explored, as well as consumer attitudes and behavior. Rising incomes among the well-off and falling national-median incomes create special challenges and opportunities for the industry. Airline finances and marketing programs are discussed in depth. Operational actions that the industry has taken since 2002, combined with new developments in airline attitudes towards customers in 2006, help paint a clear picture of where the industry is moving.

Mintel' s proprietary research and extensive consumer surveys from Simmons NCS provide an especially detailed understanding of which consumers travel, where they travel, for what purpose, and on which carriers; as well as what motivates these consumers.

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• U.S. airline market
• Major airlines market
• Discount airlines market
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• A complex market
• Operating revenues hide the turmoil...
• ...As large losses and wave of bankruptcies shake the industry
• High ad spend--business as usual
• The Consumer
• Consolidation beckons--competition declines as carriers cut capacity to raise prices
• Market Drivers
• Growth in U.S. economy continues
  • Figure 1: U.S. gross domestic product, 2000-06
• Growth in high income brackets creates industry growth.....
  • Figure 2: Number of households per income group, 1999 and 2005
• ... but median household income falls
  • Figure 3: Median household income, 1994-2004
• Annual crude oil and jet fuel prices
  • Figure 4: Crude oil prices versus average jet fuel paid, 2001-06
• Passenger prices
  • Figure 5: Annual passenger real prices (in 1978* cents per passenger mile) for the domestic and international markets, 2001-05
• Airline bankruptcies introduce uncertainty
• Security concerns make flying harder
  • Figure 6: Attitudes to air travel safety, October 2006
• Lack of vacation time limits personal travel
  • Figure 7: Employees with access to paid vacation and paid holidays, 1999-2005
• Business travel boosts airline industry
• Market Size and Trends
  • Figure 8: Total U.S. operating revenues of U.S. passenger and cargo airlines, at current and constant prices, 2000-06
  • Figure 9: Net profit/loss and profit/loss margins of U.S. passenger and cargo airlines, at current and constant prices, 2000-06
  • Figure 10: Total Worldwide operating revenues of all passenger and cargo airlines, at current and constant prices, 2000-06
  • Figure 11: Total U.S. operating revenues in relation to Worldwide operating revenues of all passenger and cargo airlines, at current and constant prices, 2000-06
  • Supply Structure
  • Figure 12: Operating revenue of U.S. airlines, 2003 and 2005
  • Figure 13: Total gains/losses by leading U.S. airlines, 2003 and 2005
• Method of booking
  • Figure 14: Who usually makes flight reservations and how, October 2006
  • Figure 15: How often do you choose/change date of personal air travel to get cheap fares, October 2006
• Companies and brands
• American Airlines
• UAL Corporation/United Airlines
• Delta Airlines
• Northwest Airlines
• Continental Airlines
• US Airways Group
• Southwest Airlines
• JetBlue
• Alaska Air Group
• AirTran Airways
• Frontier Airlines
• ATA
• Spirit Airlines
• Advertising and Promotion
• Overview
• Delta Airlines
  • Figure 16: Delta TV spot, 2006
• American Airlines
  • Figure 17: American Airlines TV spot, 2006
• United Airlines
  • Figure 18: United Airlines TV spot, 2006
• Southwest Airlines
  • Figure 19: Southwest Airlines TV spot, 2006
• Continental Airlines
  • Figure 20: Continental Airlines TV spot, 2006
• US Airways
• Northwest Airlines
• JetBlue
• Alaska Airlines
• AirTran Airways
  • Figure 21: AirTran Airways TV spot, 2006
• Frontier
  • Figure 22: Frontier TV spot, 2006
• ATA
• Spirit Airlines
• The Consumer
• Introduction
• Summary
• Key findings
• Domestic air travel
  • Figure 23: Number of domestic plane trips in the last 12 months, May 2005-June 2006
• Reasons for last trip--domestic air travel
  • Figure 24: Reason for last domestic plane trip in the last 12 months, May 2005-June 2006
• Frequency of domestic vacation/personal travel
  • Figure 25: Number of domestic plane trips in the last 12 months, for vacation/personal travel,
• Frequency of domestic business travel
  • Figure 26: Number of domestic plane trips in the last 12 months, for business travel, May 2005-June 2006
  • Figure 27: Number of domestic plane trips in the last 12 months, for business travel by age,
  • Figure 28: Number of domestic plane trips in the last 12 months, for business travel, by household income, May 2005-June 2006
• International air travel
  • Figure 29: Number of international plane trips in the last three years, May 2005-June 2006
• Frequency of international personal travel
  • Figure 30: Number of international plane trips in the last three years, for personal travel, May 2005-June 2006
• Frequency of international business travel
  • Figure 31: Number of international plane trips in the last three years, for business travel, May 2005-June 2006
  • Figure 32: Number of international plane trips in the last three years, for business travel, by age, May 2005-June 2006
  • Figure 33: Number of international plane trips in the last three years, for business travel, by household income, May 2005-June 2006
• Reason for last international trip
  • Figure 34: Reason for last international trip in the last three years, May 2005-June 2006
• Frequent flyer programs
  • Figure 35: Current membership of any frequent flyer program, by age, May 2005-June 2006
  • Figure 36: Current membership of frequent flyer programs, by race/ethnicity, May 2005-June 2006
  • Figure 37: Current membership of frequent flyer programs, by region, May 2005-June 2006
• Proprietary research
• Number of round trip flights taken
  • Figure 38: Number of round trip flights taken in the last year, by age, October 2006
  • Figure 39: Number of round trip flights taken in the last year, by household income, October 2006
  • Figure 40: Number of round trip flights taken in the last year, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2006
• Frequency of business flights
  • Figure 41: Number of business-related flights taken in the last year, by gender, October 2006
  • Figure 42: Number of business-related flights taken in the last year, by age, October 2006
  • Figure 43: Number of business-related flights taken in the last year, by household income, October 2006
• Method of booking business flights
  • Figure 44: Who usually makes business flight reservation and how, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2006
• Choice of airline--business flights
  • Figure 45: Airlines flown with in the last year for business, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2006
• Method of booking personal flights
  • Figure 46: Who usually makes personal flight reservations and how, by age, October 2006
• Choice of airline--personal flights
  • Figure 47: Airlines flown with in the last year for personal travel, by age, October 2006
  • Figure 48: Airlines flown with in the last year for personal travel, by household income, October 2006
  • Figure 49: Airlines flown with in the last year for personal travel, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2006
  • Figure 50: Airlines flown with in the last year for personal travel, by region, October 2006
• Combining business and personal travel
  • Figure 51: How often business and personal travel were combined, by household income, October 2006
• Attitudes to flying and price
  • Figure 52: Ever taken a slower form of transport to avoid flying, by age, October 2006
  • Figure 53: Ever taken a slower form of transport to avoid flying, by household size, October 2006
  • Figure 54: How often do you choose/change date of personal air travel to get cheap fares, by age, October 2006
  • Figure 55: How often do you choose/change date of personal air travel to get cheap fares, by household size, October 2006
• Attitudes to air travel
  • Figure 56: Attitudes to air travel, October 2006
• Future and Forecast
• Future trends
• Consolidation beckons....again
• Average ticket prices rise slowly
• Amenity creep as airlines upgrade
• Capacity shifts from domestic to international routes
• Market forecast
• U.S. passenger and cargo airlines
  • Figure 57: Forecast of total U.S. operating revenue of passenger and cargo airlines, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
• Forecast factors
• Appendix: Trade Associations