英国の格安・低コスト航空会社動向：2007年

Abstract

Soaring fuel costs and impending EU Emissions measures spell danger for the industry. Load factors are also slipping, as a ‘golden period’ of fleet expansion threatens to cause a state of ‘over-capacity’.

To maintain the cheap ticket model, carriers are going to have to drastically raise their ancillary revenues (in-flight sales, charges and add-ons) and increasingly expand into accommodation and transfer services, in order to cope with the economic and legislative storms they are flying towards.

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Main issues
• Definitions
• Abbreviations
• Market In Brief
• No frills, no change
• Sitting comfortably, but sales vulnerable
• Irish Tiger
• We wanna get loaded
• The battle for incremental revenue
• A low cost to the environment
• Eastern promise
• America...the land of the free thinking
• Blood on the tracks
• Triple trouble
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points:
• Fuel for thought
• Stansted Excess
• Storm clouds of clean air on the horizon
• Rail, rail, rail against the flying of the flight
• Britain takes off
  • Figure 1: Domestic and overseas holidays, by volume, 2002-07
• No-frills take bills overseas
  • Figure 2: Domestic and overseas holidays expenditure, 2002-07
  • Figure 3: Average spend per trip, 2002-07
• Spain and Italy open up
  • Figure 4: Top 20 destinations, by number of visits, 2002-05
• Holiday multipacks
  • Figure 5: Percentage of adults booking UK and overseas holidays, 2002-06
• Getting on board for homes abroad
• The EU spreads its wings
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points:
• Travel at all costs
• New blood and old heads
• Socio-economic population
• Lifestage heading
• Internet penetration
• Consumer spending priorities
  • Figure 6: UK spending priorities, January 2007
• Exchange rates
• Competitive Context
  • Figure 7: Scheduled passengers carried, 2002-06
• Load capacity
  • Figure 8: UK scheduled load capacity (seat km used as part of seat km available), 2002 and 2006
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points:
• Massive millennial growth...
  • Figure 9: Scheduled passengers carried by main low-cost airlines, 2002-06
• ...but load factors raise fears
  • Figure 10: Ryanair load factors, 2006 and 2007
  • Figure 11: easyJet load factors, 2006 and 2007
• Future outlook
• Passenger growth rates slowing
  • Figure 12: Passengers of four major low cost carriers Easyjet, Ryanair, Flybe & Bmibaby
• Taxation and trains
• Factors used in the forecast
• Segment Performance
• Key points:
• Regionalisation of airport usage
  • Figure 13: Airports used in the last 12 months, 2002-06
  • Figure 14: Passenger movements (scheduled and chartered) at UK airports, 2000-05
• How much and how close?
  • Figure 15: Most important factor when choosing which airline to fly with on holiday, 2002-06
  • Figure 16: Most important factor when choosing which airline to fly with on business, 2002-06
• Market Share
• Key points:
  • Figure 17: Number of active aircraft, July 2007
• Airline capacity
  • Figure 18: UK scheduled airline capacity statistics, 2002 and 2006
• Companies and Products
• Key points:
• UK-based carriers
• bmibaby
  • Figure 19: bmibaby statistics, 2007
• Background
• Strategy
• easyJet
  • Figure 20: easyJet statistics, 2007
• Background
• Performance
  • Figure 21: easyJet financial year performance, 2006 and 2007
  • Figure 22: easyJet full-year performance, 2005 and 2006
  • Figure 23: easyJet half-year performance, 2006 and 2007
  • Figure 24: easyJet 12-month performance, 2006 and 2007
• Chasing ancillary revenues
  • Figure 25: easyJet ancillary revenues, 2005 and 2006
• Strategy and recent activity
• Orange as the new green
• Outlook
• Flybe
  • Figure 26: Flybe statistics, 2007
• Background
• French frills
• Recent activity
• Acquisition of BA Connect
• Flybe Green
• Outlook
• Jet2
  • Figure 27: Jet2 statistics, 2007
• Monarch
  • Figure 28: Monarch statistics, 2007
• Background
• Performance
• Strategy
• Zoom Airlines
  • Figure 29: Zoom statistics, 2007
• Overseas-based carriers
• Air Berlin
  • Figure 30: Air Berlin statistics, 2007
• Background
• Performance
  • Figure 31: Air Berlin performance, 2005 and 2006
• Strategy
  • Figure 32: Air Berlin revenue contribution from additional products and services, 2006
• Outlook
• Brussels Airlines
  • Figure 33: Brussels Airlines statistics, 2007
• Background
• Norwegian
  • Figure 34: Norwegian statistics, 2007
  • Figure 35: Norwegian performance, 2004-06
• Ryanair
  • Figure 36: Ryanair statistics, 2007
• ' Lowest fare wins'
• Soaraway success, but still passenger-dependent
  • Figure 37: Ryanair performance, 2003-06
  • Figure 38: Ryanair financial performance, 2006 and 2007
  • Figure 39: Ryanair bases and routes, 2007
  • Figure 40: Ryanair table of fees, 2007
• The Ryanair passenger
  • Figure 41: Ryanair passenger profile, 2007
• The world' s most/least favourite airline
• Conservative in old age
  • Figure 42: Ryanair passenger forecast, 2007-12
• Flying billboards
• Aer Lingus merger
• Outlook
• SkyEurope
  • Figure 43: SkyEurope statistics, 2007
  • Figure 44: SkyEurope performance, 2006 and 2007
• Smart Wings
  • Figure 45: Smart Wings statistics, 2007
• Transavia
  • Figure 46: Transavia statistics, 2007
• Background
• Performance
  • Figure 47: Transavia performance, 2002/03-2006/07
• Strategy
• Wizz Air
  • Figure 48: Wizz Air statistics, 2007
• Background
• Other carriers
• JetBlue
  • Figure 49: JetBlue statistics, 2007
• Background
• JetBluesky thinking
• Southwest Airlines
  • Figure 50: Southwest Airlines statistics, 2007
• Background
• Leading by example
• Virgin Blue, Pacific Blue and Polynesian Blue
  • Figure 51: Statistics, 2007
• Background
• Strategy
• Distribution
• Key points:
  • Figure 62: Selected online sales statistics, 2007
• Use of Low-cost Airlines
• Key points:
  • Figure 63: Low-cost airline flying experience, March 2007
• Flying by demographics
• Demographics: No frills; no change
• Who are the low-cost passengers?
• Passengers fly high and low
• Low-cost Flying Habits
• Key points:
  • Figure 64: Flying habits of low-cost airline passengers, March 2007
• Spinning a bigger Web
• EasyShop
• Smile high club
• Habits by demographics
• Eat, drink and be ancillary
• Routes to revenue
• Appendix: Database
• Broader Market Environment data
  • Figure 67: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, 2002-12
  • Figure 68: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2002-12
  • Figure 69: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2002-12
  • Figure 70: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2002-12
  • Figure 71: Internet penetration, by gender, socio-economic group and age, 2002-06
  • Figure 72: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against the euro and US Dollar, 2002-06
• Consumer Demographics
  • Figure 73: Low-cost flying experience, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, TV reception, supermarket usage, household size, car ownership, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, March 2007
  • Figure 74: Further low-cost flying experience, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, TV reception, supermarket usage, household size, car ownership, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, March 2007
  • Figure 75: Habits of low-cost airline passengers, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, TV reception, supermarket usage, household size, car ownership, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, March 2007
  • Figure 76: Most popular attitudes towards low-cost airlines, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, TV reception, supermarket usage, household size, car ownership, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, March 2007
  • Figure 77: Further attitudes towards low-cost airlines, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, TV reception, supermarket usage, household size, car ownership, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, March 2007
  • Figure 78: Scheduled airlines brand map, May 2007