英国における個人ローンの市場

Abstract

The personal loans market has enjoyed a period of sustained and fairly rapid growth since the credit boom of the early noughties. However, it would appear that the era of cheap and abundantly available credit is poised to end. According to Mintel estimates, consumer demand for unsecured personal loans has also declined in recent years. Aside from a weaker consumer appetite for borrowing generally, the two most significant threats to the personal loans industry at present are the ongoing investigation into the payment protection industry and the global ‘credit crunch' .

This report is very much focused on the current challenges facing the personal loans industry. This is portrayed through a number of different perspectives such as regulatory intervention, consumer sentiment and trade and media perspective. In addition, the report makes extensive reference throughout to the best available market data, and in so doing, attempts to span both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the industry.

This report covers a wide spectrum of the personal loans market - it outlines the factors that influence demand for borrowing, as well as those that influence supply by limiting the profitability and attractiveness of the market. Key players in the market are examined alongside examples of new innovations and new product development in the sector. Finally, the report concludes with consumer research that provides insight into behaviour and attitudes towards personal loans and other types of borrowing.

Table of Contents

• Issues in the MarketKey issues
• Abbreviations
• Market in Brief
• The size of the personal loans market and other forms of borrowing
  • Figure 1: Estimated lending on unsecured personal loans, 2001-07
• The big high street banks dominate the market
  • Figure 2: Personal loan market share by provider type, August 2007
• Adspend in decline
• High levels of consumer debt
  • Figure 3: Number of individual bankruptcy orders and IVAs in England and Wales (not seasonally adjusted), Q1 2004-Q2 2007
• The potential loss of income from PPI
• The impact of the ' credit crunch'
  • Figure 4: Loan acceptance rates, Apr 2007-Oct 2007
• Weaker consumer appetite for debt
  • Figure 5: Debt repayment, borrowing and net debt repayment, Sep 2002-Sep 2007
• Some interesting trends exist regarding product ownership...
  • Figure 6: Consumer credit ownership, by lifestage, August 2007
• ... as well as consumer attitudes towards debt
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• Debt problems are still a major concern...
• ...making them a high-profile subject in the media
• Consumer bodies report growing problems...
• ...although insolvency figures dipped in 2007
  • Figure 7: Number of individual bankruptcy orders and IVAs in England and Wales (not seasonally adjusted), Q1 2004-Q2 2007
• Changing legislation for those with debt problems
• Debt management companies have a large part to play
  • Figure 8: Advertising expenditure for debt management services, H1 200-H1 2007
• The government is taking action
• PPI under increasing scrutiny
• CAB, OFT and FSA investigating the market
• Broader Market Environment
• Key Points
• Rising interest rates are likely to inflate loan rates
  • Figure 9: Bank of England base rate, 1997-2007
• The population of people employed in the UK is rising
  • Figure 10: Size of total workforce and proportions employed, self-employed and unemployed, 2002-12
• High disposable income and consumer spending fuels borrowing
  • Figure 11: PDI, consumer expenditure, savings and savings ratio (at current prices), 2002-12
• A booming economy merely stoked the fire
• And what about the impact of the global credit crunch?
• Loan acceptance rates fall
  • Figure 12: Loan acceptance rates, Apr 2007-Oct 2007
• Some lenders are leaving the market
• Consumer Financial Activity
• Key Points
• Background
• Consumer confidence at a major low point
  • Figure 13: Rolling monthly, 3-monthly and yearly UK consumer confidence indices, Jan 2000-Sep 2007
• Employment prospects look favourable
  • Figure 14: Unemployment expectations and job availability, Jan 2006-Sep 2007
• Changing consumer intentions towards spending and saving
  • Figure 15: Intentions to save and spend in the next 12 months*, Jan 2001-Sep 2007
• Consumers are generally becoming less financially active...
  • Figure 16: Expected consumer activity in savings and investments, borrowing, and debt repayment, Mar 2006-Sep 2007
• ... with debt repayment showing a significant decline since mid-2004
  • Figure 17: Debt repayment, borrowing and net debt repayment, Sep 2002-Sep 2007
• Intended consumer credit activity has dropped significantly
  • Figure 18: Intended consumer credit activities, Q3/Q4 2002-Q3/Q4 2007
• The younger generation and low-income groups are less inclined to pay off existing debts
  • Figure 19: Debt repayment intentions, by age and socio-economic groups, 2005-07
• Competitive Context
• Key Points
• Credit cards
  • Figure 20: Credit cards: number of cards in issue, total and average annual transaction volumes and value, 2000-06
• Overdrafts
  • Figure 21: Overdraft advances to individuals by residual maturity* (MBBG only), 2000-06
• Housing equity withdrawal
  • Figure 22: Housing equity withdrawal and housing equity withdrawl as a proportion of post-tax income (seasonally adjusted), Q1 2002-Q2 2007
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths in the market
• An open market with high consumer choice
• Data sharing means better risk profiling
• High cross-selling potential
• More responsible consumers
• Weaknesses in the market
• High level of bad debts
• Weaker consumer appetite for borrowing
• Possible loss of income from PPI
• Banks tightening their lending criteria
• The sustainability of price-based competition
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key Points
• An estimated 5 million adults in the UK have a personal loan
  • Figure 24: Consumer credit ownership, August 2007
• At the highest level, total gross unsecured lending is down
  • Figure 25: Total gross unsecured consumer lending, 2000-07
• At product level, the demand for personal loans has fallen...
  • Figure 26: Total gross unsecured consumer lending split by product category, 2001-07
• ... with three years of decline
  • Figure 27: Estimated lending on unsecured personal loans, 2001-07
• What does the future look like for personal loans?
• Market forecast for unsecured personal loans
  • Figure 28: Forecast of total gross unsecured consumer lending split by product category, 2002-12 based on current prices
• Factors used in this forecast
• Market Share
• Key Points
• Lloyds TSB still has the dominant share of the personal loans market
  • Figure 29: Personal loan market share by company, August 2007
• The top 5 banks still dominate the market
  • Figure 30: Personal loan market share by provider type, August 2007
• Companies and Products
• Key Points
• To offset a weaker brand image, smaller providers tend to offer more competitive rates
  • Figure 31: Repayment terms for selected unsecured personal loans of £5,000 over 3 years, sorted by APR, September 2007Personal pricing blurs comparisons
• A diversity of players operate in this market
• The big banks have a number of subsidiary brands
  • Figure 32: Top five MBBG companies and selected subsidiaries that offer undecured personal loans, 2007
• Historic market prosperity has attracted (fairly) new entrants
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key Points
• Personal loans is the third-largest advertising sector in financial services
  • Figure 43: Advertising expenditure on different financial services products, 2003/04-2006/07
• Adspend on secured personal loans has overtaken expenditure on unsecured loans for the first time
  • Figure 44: Advertising expenditure on different types of personal loan, 2003/04-2006/07
• Share of voice differs between secured and unsecured lenders
  • Figure 45: Top ten advertisers of secured and unsecured personal loans, 2003/04-2006/07
• Unsecured loan providers use direct mail to attract customers whilst secured loan providers advertise on television
  • Figure 46: Advertising expenditure on secured and unsecured personal loans by media type, Jul 2006-Jun 2007
• Channels to Market
• Key Points
• The Internet has proven to be a powerful consumer research tool as well as an increasingly popular channel of arrangement
  • Figure 47: Websites browsed for information purposes with a view to possibly buying and actually purchased from in the last three months (financial products only), Nov 2002-Jul 2007
• Growing use of direct channels to arrange a loan
• Different channels adopt a different pricing strategy
• Aggregators are a highly influential force in the market...
  • Figure 48: Advertising expenditure of a selection of major financial price comparison websites, 2003/04-2006/07
• ... but the industry has been criticised recently over its ' impartiality'
• The Consumer: Product Ownership
• Key Points
• About Mintel' s consumer research
• Credit cards still the most popular consumer credit product
  • Figure 49: Consumer credit ownership, August 2007
• Men are the credit kings
  • Figure 50: Consumer credit ownership, by gender, August 2007
• Live hard, die young... and keep on borrowing
  • Figure 51: Consumer credit ownership, August 2007
• Insights and opportunities
• Families with affordability issues?
  • Figure 52: Consumer credit ownership, by lifestage, August 2007
• Middle income groups looking for lifestyle enrichment
  • Figure 53: Consumer credit ownership, August 2007
• Major high street banks still dominate the market
  • Figure 54: Personal loan* market share by type of lender, August 2007
• Shifting loan patterns?
• Appendix
• Product ownership
  • Figure 77: Consumer credit ownership, by demographic characteristics, August 2007
• Attitudes towards borrowing and saving
  • Figure 78: Attitudes towards borrowing and saving, by demographic characteristics, August 2007
• Channel of loan arrangement
  • Figure 79: Loan arrangement through current account provider, by demographic characteristics, August 2007
• Awareness of PPI mis-selling
  • Figure 80: Awareness of PPI mis-selling allegations, by demographic characteristics, August 2007
• Attitudes towards loans and borrowing in general
  • Figure 81: Consumer attitudes towards loans and borrowing in general, by demographic characteristics, August 2007, (part 1 of 2)
  • Figure 82: Consumer attitudes towards loans and borrowing in general, by demographic characteristics, August 2007, (part 2 of 2)
• Consumers potentially in the market for a loan
  • Figure 83: Consumers who are in the potential market for a loan, by demographic characteristics, August 2007
  • Figure 84: Attitudes of consumers who are in the potential market for a loan, August 2007
  • Figure 85: Attitudes of consumers who are in the potential market for a loan, by demographic characteristics, August 2007, (part 1 of 2)
  • Figure 86: Attitudes of consumers who are in the potential market for a loan, by demographic characteristics, August 2007, (part 2 of 2)
• Consumer typologies
  • Figure 87: Consumer typologies based on consumer credit ownership and attitudes towards borrowing and personal loans, by demographic characteristics, August 2007