市場調査報告書：クリスマス・ショッピング：英国

Abstract

The Christmas trading period is when the strength of a retailer' s proposition and business performance is tested to the utmost, and 2007 was no exception. There was pressure on consumer spending, partly due to the squeeze on credit and a gloomy outlook for the economy. This contributed to worse than expected trading conditions in December 2007, and by the middle of February 2008 the casualty list reads:

Three fatalities - Dolcis (footwear) entered administration in the middle of January, Stead & Simpson (footwear) entered administration at the end of January, and The Works (books and stationery) entered administration in early February.
Three seriously wounded - in the form of profit warnings from JJB Sports, DSGi and Land of Leather.

Given the extent of the slowdown in retail sales growth in December, things could have been worse if the slowdown had begun to bite earlier. The impact of weaker trading at Christmas will be long lasting, as this is such an important part of the trading year. The cost of clearing unsold goods in the Sales could impair year-end results.

Issues in the Market
Main themes
Definition
Retail sales data
Market in Brief
Consumer caution in December....
...but Christmas trading is not just about December
Spending patterns indicate higher spend than last year
Clothing most widely purchased gift
Home shopping won share (again)
Trend to online maintained...
Major grocers ahead of the average
Christmas with a conscience
Internal Market Environment
Promotional discounts to drive footfall
Advertising mainly price led...
... but evidence of narrower focus of discounts
Blanket discount days shunned
Longer trading hours
Extended trading hours throughout December
... and increases security risks
Last minute rush a feature of Christmas shopping
Increased popularity of multi-channel shopping
Greater confidence in online
- Figure 1: British Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, April 2002-October 2007
...but sizeable element still not convinced
Greener orientation among consumers
Greener mind set
Increased spend on organic foods
Safety of toys/shortage of toys
Other factors
Temporary shops causing concern to some occupiers
Hamper companies kept a low profile
PR gaffes
Positive PR
Broader Market Environment
Credit crunch weakens consumer confidence
December retail sales growth dipped badly
Northern Rock crisis a wake up call for lenders and borrowers
Overall indebtedness increasing
- Figure 2: Total amount outstanding lent to individuals, May to October 2007
Rising energy prices
Consumer spend remained resilient until December
Employment figures remain positive
- Figure 3: Employment and unemployment, October to December 2003-07
Underlying consumer spend resilient in 2007
- Figure 4: PDI and consumer expenditure, at constant 2002 prices, 2002-12
EHT category delivering strong product stream of ' must have' gadgets
- Figure 5: UK population, by socio-economic group, 2002-12
Population growth expanding the gifting market
- Figure 6: Crude birth and death rates, 1996-2006
Life expectancy increasing contributing to extended gifting networks
- Figure 7: Trends and projections in UK population (' 000s), by age group, 2002-12
Market in Context
Key points
Christmas comes but once a year
Weakening of December contribution
- Figure 8: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value -- proportion of sales taken in December, by sector, 1995-2007
Fourth quarter gaining in importance
- Figure 9: Seasonal analysis of retail sales value -- proportion of sales taken in fourth quarter, by sector, 1995-2007
Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
Strengths
Weaknesses -- inhibiting growth
Review of Christmas Trading 2007
Key points
2007 -- cautious forecasts were over optimistic
Out-turn worse that predicted
Home shopping the biggest winner
Household goods retailers struggled badly
Food retailers and non-food specialists gained share
- Figure 10: December: Year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2005/06-2006-07
Strong fourth quarter for home shopping
- Figure 11: Fourth quarter year-on-year change in sales value, by sector, 2005/06-2006/07
December gloom but overall a good year for retail sales
- Figure 12: Retail sales monthly change by value not seasonally adjusted, January 2006-December 2007
Non-food retailers fought back in 2007
- Figure 13: Annual change in retail sales value, by sector, 2005/06-2006/07
Christmas Spending Patterns
Key points
Spending patterns higher than last year
- Figure 14: Perceptions of spending compared to last year, Pre and Post-Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
Intention not to spend did not hold
Who spent more than planned?
Financing over spend through debt?
Who spent what?
- Figure 15: Amount spent at Christmas on gifts for close friends and family, January 2007 and January 2008
Young children get indulged at Christmas
AB families spend over £500 as do other families
Pre-family adults among lowest spenders
Underestimation of what Christmas really costs?
High spenders on Christmas gifts
- Figure 16: Average Christmas spending on gifts, January 2008
Who spent more than planned?
Internet benefited from higher than anticipated expenditure
Christmas Gifting Patterns
Key points
What were the most popular gifts?
- Figure 17: Comparison of purchasing of gifts, January 2007 and January 2008
Video games a big winner compared to 2006
Intended and actual gifts bought
- Figure 18: Comparison of purchasing intentions with items actually bought this Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
Who bought what
- Figure 19: Profile of those buying the top 5 gifts at Christmas, January 2008
Retail Competitor Analysis
Key points
All retail sales
Food retailers reign in sales
Morrisons
Somerfield
Waitrose
J Sainsbury' s
Booths
Co-operative Group (food)
Tesco -- UK only
Thorntons -- own stores
Majestic Wine
Marks & Spencer -- food
Aldi
Asda
Non-food retailers hold steady
Mixed goods -- Non-specialised non-food stores
Selfridges
John Lewis department stores
Liberty
Mothercare -- UK stores
House of Fraser
Instore (formerly Brown & Jackson)
Poundland
Debenhams
Marks & Spencer -- general merchandise
Woolworths -- group
Beales
Clothing and footwear stores
Primark
Ted Baker -- retail sales (including overseas)
Burberry -- retail sales (including overseas)
Marks & Spencer -- clothing
Next
New Look
Peacocks
Household goods stores
Furniture and furnishings retailers
Dreams
Dunelm
Marks & Spencer -- Home
Land of Leather
Electrical goods retailers:Comet
Carphone Warehouse -- Europe
DSG
DIY goods retailers
Topps Tiles
Homebase
All other non-food specialists
Booksellers and stationers
Waterstone' s
Clinton Cards -- Group (including Birthdays)
WH Smith
Health and beauty retailers:Lush
Alliance Boots -- UK retail
Photographic retailers
Jessops
Other non-food specialists including jewellers and sports goods
Jewellers
Theo Fennell
Signet (UK stores)
Sports and leisure
JD Sports
Blacks Leisure
JJB Sports
Music and entertainment retailers
HMV -- UK & Eire
Toys and games retailers
Game -- UK and Ireland
Non-store retailing
Home shopping and mail order companies
ASOS -- online sales
Littlewoods Shop Direct
Findel (home shopping)
M and M Direct
Ideal Shopping Direct
Play.com
Otto -- group online sales
N Brown
The White Company
Amazon
Ocado
Online sales performance reported by primarily store-based multi-channel retailers
The Perfume Shop -- online
Debenhams -- online
Marks & Spencer -- Direct
John Lewis Direct
Sainsbury' s -- online
DSG International -- e-commerce division
Waitrose.com
Tesco.com
Appendix
Abbreviations
- Figure 25: Trend data for food shopping lifestyle statements, 2003-07
- Figure 26: Profile of food shopping lifestyle statements, 2007
Broader market environment
- Figure 27: Net lending to individuals, August to October 2006 and 2007
- Figure 28: Total amount outstanding lent to individuals, May to October 2007
- Figure 29: Employment and unemployment, October to December 2003-07
- Figure 30: Crude birth and death rates, 1996 to 2006
Christmas spending patterns
- Figure 31: Perceptions of spending compared to last year, pre and post-Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008Figure 32: Comparison of those intending to spend more with those that actually spent more, pre and post-Christmas, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups October 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 33: Perceptions of Spending compared to last year by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
- Figure 34: Spending on Christmas gift for close family and friends, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
- Figure 35: Comparison of those intending to spend more with those that actually spent more, pre and post-Christmas, by amount spent, October 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 36: Amount spent at Christmas on gifts for close friends and family, January 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 37: Comparison of amount intended to spend with amount actually spent, this Christmas on gifts for close friends and family, pre and post Christmas, October 2007 and January 2008
- Figure 38: Average Christmas spending on gifts, January 2008
Christmas gifting patterns: Detailed demographics
- Figure 39: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by demographic sub-group, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008Figure 40: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by demographic sub-group, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008
- Figure 41: Items bought as Christmas gifts, by demographic sub-group, by gender, age, social grade, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Special Groups, supermarket used, January 2008Figure 42: Profile of those buying gifts for family and friends, January 2008
The consumer: paying for Christmas -- Detailed demographics
- Figure 43: Shopping behaviour at Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 44: Shopping behaviour at Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 45: Enjoyment and paying for Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 46: Enjoyment and paying for Christmas, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 47: Attitudes to gift buying by amount spent on Christmas gifts, January 2008
- Figure 48: Gift buying typologies by socio-demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 49: Gift buying typologies by attitudes to Christmas gift buying, January 2008
- Figure 50: Gift buying typologies by Christmas Spend compared to the previous year, January 2008
- Figure 51: Attitudinal groups by Internet usage, January 2008
Impact of the Internet on Christmas Shopping Behaviour: Detailed Demographics
- Figure 52: Christmas shopping and the Internet, January 2008
- Figure 53: Christmas shopping and the Internet, by demograhic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 54: Christmas shopping and the Internet, by demographic sub-group, January 2008
- Figure 55: Internet usage by amount of money spent on gifts at Christmas, January 2008

英国におけるクリスマス・ショッピングの習慣

Christmas Shopping Habits - UK - February 2008

Abstract

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