英国におけるBuy-to-Let住宅ローンの市場

Abstract

The private rental market has undergone a renaissance in the past decade, driven by the growth in buy-to-let mortgages. A market that was once the preserve of organisations, very wealthy individuals and those letting out single rooms has been transformed into a market largely occupied by property-owning individuals, most of whom are not professional landlords. By the end of 2007, there were over one million buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, valued at £122 billion, representing growth of almost eightfold in number and over 1,000% in value since 2000.

But could 2007 mark a watershed for the market? House prices are now anticipated to fall in 2008; the UK, along with other major economies, is experiencing a global credit crunch; and the prospects for the UK economy now seem weaker than at any time in the past decade. Can the impressive growth levels of the past seven years be maintained in light of these emerging economic problems and will landlords hold their nerve and ride out the storm? How much scope is there for further innovation in the rapidly maturing market? Will the global credit crunch radically change which companies are leading the market?

Drawing on a comprehensive range of information sources, this report seeks to answer these questions. The report additionally offers:

• an investigation into the internal and broader macroeconomic factors impacting on the market, including changing social and demographic trends
• an overview of the market' s competitive context, its strengths and weaknesses, insights and opportunities
• the views of leading experts
• an examination of recent and projected market growth
• an appraisal of the supply side of the market, including market shares of the largest lenders
• a review of product innovation, distribution and promotion
• an overview of general consumer financial activity
• the results of Mintel' s independently-commissioned consumer research, which offers insight into the leading characteristics, attitudes and behaviours of homeowners and (actual and potential) buy-to-let investors
• special further analysis (using cluster modelling) to enable deeper understanding of the core target market

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Market evolution
• Key issues
• Market definitions
• Abbreviations
• Market in Brief
• Strong market momentum
• 2008 a more difficult year but longer-term prospects are generally good
• The social imperative
• Market environment
• Competition in a state of flux
• Product innovation continues but there is some retrenchment
• Heavy reliance on intermediaries
• Buy-to-let advertising activity more than doubles in 2007
• Mintel' s consumer research findings: property ownership and aspirations
• Who are UK landlords and what do they need?
• Attitudes towards property investment are largely positive
• Property investment and property ownership clusters
• Large untapped market potential
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• Strong demand for rented accommodation
  • Figure 1: Number of households in Great Britain (000) and average household size (persons per household), 1976-2011
• Implications
  • Figure 2: Number of households in England by type (000), 2004-11
• Implications and opportunities
• Student population continues to expand
• Implications and opportunities
• Migration trends
  • Figure 3: Net migration flow into the UK (000), 1991-2006
• Implications and opportunities
• Space in the rented sector
• Technologically -- Improving the flow of information
• Economic backdrop
• The global credit crunch
  • Figure 4: Phases of the 2007 global credit crunch crisis
• Implications and opportunities
• The UK sub-prime market -- possible impact on buy-to-let
• Implications and opportunities
• But the cost of borrowing likely to decline over 2008
  • Figure 5: End month weighted average interest rate, standard variable mortgage, banks & building societies, January 2000-December 2007
• Inflationary pressures under control
  • Figure 6: Interest rates, CPI and GDP projections, Q4 2007-Q4 2009
• Outlook and implications for buy-to-let
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• The renaissance of the privately rented sector
  • Figure 7: Total number of UK private rented dwellings (million) and the share of all dwellings accounted for by private rentals (%), 1981-2007+
• A nation of homeowners
  • Figure 8: Tenure structure of dwellings (millions of dwellings and % of total), 1981-2007+
• Buy-to-let accounts for a rising proportion of private rentals
  • Figure 9: Share of private rental dwelling being purchased with BTL mortgages, 1998-2007
• House price inflation -- driver and drawback
  • Figure 10: UK average house price index (Feb 2002 = 100), Feb 2002-Dec 2007
  • Figure 11: The average value of rented houses and flats -- all regions (£000), 2007
• Regional house price variation
  • Figure 12: Index of house prices by region, October 2007 (Feb 2002 = 100)
  • Figure 13: The average value of rented houses and flats (£000), 2007
• Average rents have grown
  • Figure 14: Private sector rents (£ per month), 1994/95-2006/07
• Rental demand strong but returns falling
  • Figure 15: Rental returns (% yield) to landlords, Q3 2003-Q4 2007
• Location, Location, Location
  • Figure 16: Buy-to-let annual return on investment, by region, 2006-07
• Implications and opportunities
• Profile of residential investment landlords: investment motive
  • Figure 17: Landlords viewing BTL as a form of disciplined savings, 2007
  • Figure 18: How long BTL landlords have been investing in property (%*), July 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• From buying to marking time
  • Figure 19: How landlord are acting over their net investment in residential property (% of landlords), Q4 2004-Q4 2007
• Most investors have fairly small portfolios...
  • Figure 20: Number of rented residential properties in portfolio, November 2007
• A safer haven in a credit storm...
  • Figure 21: Buy-to-let mortgage arrears, maximum LTV and minimum rental cover, 1999-2006
• Increasing regulation is a cause for concern for landlords
• Tenancy Deposit Scheme
  • Figure 22: Tenancy deposit schemes joined by landlords, November 2007
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Buy to let property: only one source of "passive" income
  • Figure 23: Sources of passive income, June 2007
• Buy to let competes in the property investment market
• The emotional pull of bricks and mortar
  • Figure 24: Net worth of the household sector, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2007
• Implications
• The search for control
• People are fundamentally risk averse
• The Footsie remains volatile
  • Figure 25: Annual change in the FTSE All Share Index compared with annual house price inflation and the return on bank and building society deposits, January 2004-November 2007
• Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Figure 26: Buy-to-let mortgage market -- SWOT analysis, 2008
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• A fundamentally strong and dynamic market
  • Figure 27: Number and value of buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, 1999-2007 (year-end)
• New business is booming
  • Figure 28: Number and value of buy-to-let sales, 1999-2007
• Boom or bust -- or somewhere in between?
• Wait and see strategy
• Those at the coalface are still upbeat...
• ...but major supply side concerns
• Remortgaging drives the market in 2008
  • Figure 29: Buy-to-let gross advances, 2005-08
• Opportunities for expansion
• Forecast
• Market should weather the storm
  • Figure 30: Number and value of buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, 2003-2012 (year-end)
• But growth will be slower
  • Figure 31: Number and value of buy-to-let sales, 2003-2012
• Factors incorporated
• Market Share
• Key points
• A big three lead the market
  • Figure 32: Ten largest buy-to-let lenders by balances outstanding and gross advances, 2007
• A stable market for outstanding business but 2007 brings in new uncertainty
• A jostle for market position in terms of new business
• Implications of the credit squeeze
• Top five account for over half of new buy-to-let business in 2006/07
  • Figure 33: Market share of top five buy-to-let lender groups, by gross advances, year ending September 2007
  • Figure 34: Market share of top five buy-to-let lenders, by gross advances, year ending September 2007
• Companies and Products
• Key points
• Little product differentiation
• Profiles of the largest buy-to-let lenders
• Mortgage Express
  • Figure 35: Bradford & Bingley' s buy-to-let mortgage business, September 2007 and December 2006
• Birmingham Midshires
• Paragon
  • Figure 36: Paragon New Mortgage Business, year ending 30th September 2007
• Nationwide Building Society (UCB Home Loans, Mortgage Works)
  • Figure 37: Nationwide buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, 2006-07
• Northern Rock
  • Figure 38: Northern Rock buy-to-let mortgages outstanding and gross advances, 2006-07
• GMAC-RFC
• Other major providers
• Cheltenham & Gloucester
• Capital Home Loans
• Bristol & West
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key points
• Overall mortgage ad spend declines in 2006...
  • Figure 39: Mortgage adspend, by category, 2003-07
• Implications and opportunities
  • Figure 40: The change in mortgage adspend, by category, 2006-07
• Investment in promoting buy-to-let on the up
  • Figure 41: Buy-to-let mortgage adspend (£000) and share of the mortgage adspend taken by buy-to-let, 2003-07
• Buy-to-let providers focus their ad spend on the press
  • Figure 42: Buy-to-let mortgage adspend, by channel, 2003-07
• Implications and opportunities
• C&G and Bradford & Bingley the heaviest investors
  • Figure 43: Buy-to-let mortgage adspend, by advertiser, 2003-07
• Channels to Market
• Key points
• The distribution mix: intermediaries dominate
  • Figure 44: Main channels to market -- illustration, 2008
• Buy-to-let a key business area for intermediaries
• Web support
• Intermediaries have a prominent presence in the buy-to-let mortgage market
  • Figure 45: Distribution channels used by the top ten buy-to-let lenders, by gross advances, in 2008
• The Consumer -- Property Ownership and Aspirations
• Key points
• Survey background
• Only 6% of homeowners have a second property
  • Figure 46: Property ownership and intentions to buy, December 2007
• A million UK landlords
  • Figure 47: Size of the second-property-owner population, December 2006-December 2007
• Overseas property more popular than UK property
  • Figure 48: Size of the prospective target market for second properties, December 2006-December 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Mortgage holders are more likely to invest in buy-to-let than are outright owners
  • Figure 49: Second property ownership and intentions to buy, by tenure, December 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Affluence: the key determinant of second homeownership
  • Figure 50: Second property ownership and intentions to buy, by socio-economic group, ACORN category and household income, December 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Is it a mid-life thing?
  • Figure 51: Second property ownership and intentions to buy, by gender, age and TV region, December 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Regional hotspots
• Family and third agers lead the way
  • Figure 52: Penetration of second property owners and prospective targets, by marital status, lifestage, Special Groups and working status, December 2007
• The press and Internet work in co-operation to reach second homeowners
  • Figure 53: Demographic profile of second property owners and prospective targets -- part 3, December 2006
• Implications and opportunities
• The Consumer -- UK Landlords
• Key points
• Context
• Landlords are similar to second homeowners: middle aged and wealthy
  • Figure 54: Penetration of landlords in the UK population by age, gender, socio-economic group, ACORN group and household income, December 2007
• Pre-family and no-family adults are important landlords
  • Figure 55: Penetration of landlords in the UK population, by marital status, lifestage and Special Groups, December 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Only a small proportion of landlords are buy-to-let landlords
  • Figure 56: Landlord ownership of buy-to-let mortgages, December 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Landlords take out a narrower range of mortgages compared with other property owners
  • Figure 57: Mortgage ownership, by type of property owner, December 2007
• High proportion of landlords are self-financed
• Landlords like flexibility
• Desire for flexibility
• Flexibility and certainty drive the buy decision
  • Figure 58: The mortgage options preferred by landlords, December 2007
• Implications and opportunities