次世代チップ：有機トランジスタ&メモリーと各種アプリケーション

Abstract

Some observers now believe that thin film, organic and printed (TOP) electronics will grow into an industry rivaling today' s semiconductor industry in size within a couple of decades. For this to happen new types of semiconductor device-transistors and memories-will have to be developed and commercialized. At the present time, the most likely materials platform for this type of device would seem to be organic materials.

Organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs) are found in backplanes for e-paper devices and games that one can buy today and they have been used in RFID demonstrators. Organic memories were proposed as a flash memory replacement a few years back, but are seeing a revival in a slightly different form for the TOP environment. A handful of firms are pledged to take such devices to the next stage and embed them in a wide range of novel devices and applications. Meanwhile, there is extensive research being undertaken, especially in Asia, to improve the performance of organic transistors and memories, which will help to extend their market reach further.

And these devices certainly are in need of further development. Much of the activity is still at the level of device architectures and showing that devices can be manufactured in at least pilot plant quantities. While their potential is huge, the reality is often far less impressive. Conductivity of organic materials is low and this is reflected in their slow switching speeds which in turn limits their applications. Most of the commercial products and demonstrators that use OTFTs have, at best, very modest performance. A fairly similar story can be told with regard to organic memories. Indeed, important voices have been raised in support of an alternative future in which TOP electronics will ultimately progress using inorganic devices made from printed silicon, carbon nanotubes, etc. rather than OTFTs and organic memories.

This report analyzes and forecasts the market for OTFTs and organic memories and assesses its likely future success and challenges. It provides an in-depth review of current commercialization and research programs and provides a roadmap for the development of both OTFTs/organic memories and the applications/products in which they will be used. In addition, the report contains detailed forecasts of both OTFTs and organic memories in both volume and value terms, broken out both by application and by technology type. This is an applications and device oriented technology assessment and is intended to complement NanoMarkets' new market research report on organic electronics materials. The report is based on extensive interviews with the movers and shakers in the TOP electronics community, as well as extensive secondary research including an analysis of patents filed by leading firms active in this space.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• E.1 Opportunities in Organic Memory and OTFTs
  • E.1.1 Key Developments in the Past Year
  • E.1.2 Opportunities in OTFT Devices
  • E.1.3 Opportunities in Organic Memory and Other Devices
  • E.1.4 Opportunities for Materials Suppliers and Equipment Makers
• E.2 Manufacturers and Research Groups to Watch
• E.3 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of OTFT and Organic Memory Markets

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to this Report
  • 1.1.1 The Second Coming of TFTs
  • 1.1.2 Organic Electronics and TFTs
  • 1.1.3 Challenges to OTFTs
  • 1.1.4 A Note on Organic Memory
• 1.2 Goal and Scope of this Report
  • 1.2.1 OTFTs and the TOP Electronics Value Chain
• 1.3 Methodology and Information Sources for Report
• 1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Technology Assessments of Organic Transistors and Memories

• 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.1.1 OTFTs and Competing Technologies for Display Backplanes
  • 2.1.2 OTFTs and Competing Technology for RFID
  • 2.1.3 OTFTs and Competing Technologies for "Disposable Electronics"
• 2.2 Architectures for OTFTs
  • 2.2.1 Top Contact and Bottom Contact OTFTs
• 2.3 Performance Improvements
• 2.4 Materials for OTFTs and Organic Memories
  • 2.4.1 Semiconductor Materials for OTFTs
  • 2.4.2 Dielectrics
  • 2.4.3 Conductors
• 2.5 Organic Memories
  • 2.5.1 Organic Memory as a Flash Replacement
  • 2.5.2 Organic Memory in Organic Electronics
  • 2.5.3 Requirements and Architectures for Organic Memory
  • 2.5.4 Markets for Organic Memory
• 2.6 Other Devices
  • 2.6.1 Single-Crystal OTFTs
  • 2.6.2 Light-Emitting Transistors
• 2.7 Manufacturing Technologies for OTFTs and Organic Memories
  • 2.7.1 Vapor Deposition
  • 2.7.2 Printing
  • 2.7.3 Solution Processing Other than Printing
  • 2.7.4 Optical Lithography
  • 2.7.5 Shadow Masking
• 2.8 Flexible Devices and Flexible Substrates
• 2.9 Summary of Main Points in this Chapter

Chapter Three: Applications and Drivers for Organic Semiconductor Devices

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Display Backplanes
  • 3.2.1 OTFT Backplanes and Cost Reduction
  • 3.2.2 OTFTs, Improved Display Performance and Flexibility
• 3.3 RFID Tags
  • 3.3.1 Markets and Market Needs for RFID
  • 3.3.2 Lowering the Cost of RFID with OTFTs and Organic Memory
• 3.4 Smart Cards
  • 3.4.1 How Can OTFTs and Organic Memories Add Value to Smart Cards?
• 3.5 Smart Packaging
  • 3.5.1 How Can OTFTs and Organic Memories Add Value to Packaging?
• 3.6 Sensors and Medical Applications
  • 3.6.1 How Can Organic Semiconductor Devices Change the Sensing Industry?
  • 3.6.2 Biomedical Applications
  • 3.6.3 Other Sensing Applications
• 3.7 Games, Gadgets and Gizmos
• 3.8 Summary of Main Points in this Chapter

Chapter Four: OTFT and Organic Memory Manufacturers

• 4.1 3M
• 4.2 Acreo
• 4.3 Asahi Kasei
• 4.4 Dai Nippon Printing
• 4.5 Epson U.K Cambridge Research Laboratory
• 4.5 Hewlett-Packard
• 4.6 Hitachi
• 4.7 IBM
• 4.8 Infineon
• 4.9 Intel
• 4.10 LG Chem
• 4.11 LG Philips
• 4.12 Motorola
• 4.13 NHK
• 4.14 ORFID
• 4.15 OrganicID
• 4.16 Philips
• 4.17 Pioneer Electronics
• 4.18 Plastic Logic
• 4.19 PolyIC
• 4.20 Polymer Vision
• 4.20.1Innos
• 4.21 printed systems
• 4.22 Ricoh
• 4.23 Samsung
• 4.24 Sony
• 4.25 Spansion
• 4.26 STMicroelectronics
• 4.27 Thin Film Electronics
• 4.28 Xerox (including Xerox PARC and Xerox Research Centre of Canada)
• 4.30 ZettaCore

Chapter Five: Review and Analysis of OTFT and Organic Memory Research Activities

• 5.1 Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry
• 5.2 Chiba University
• 5.3 Cornell University
• 5.4 Dankook University
• 5.5 DeMontfort University
• 5.6 Dong-A University
• 5.7 ETH Zurich
• 5.8 ETRI
• 5.9 Fraunhofer Institutes
  • 5.9.1 Fraunhofer ISC
  • 5.9.2 Fraunhofer IZM
• 5.10 Georgia Institute of Technology
• 5.11 Hongik University
• 5.12 Hoseo University
• 5.13 IMEC
• 5.14 Inha University
• 5.15 Institute of Microelectronics, NCSR Demokritos
• 5.16 ITRI
• 5.17 Jacobs University (Germany)
• 5.18 Japan Science and Technology Agency
• 5.19 Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology (KRICT)
• 5.20 Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials
• 5.21 Korea University
• 5.22 Kumoh National Institute of Technology
• 5.23 Kyoto University
• 5.24 Kyung Hee University
• 5.25 Kyushu University
• 5.26 Leibniz Institute for Solid State and Materials Research (IFW)
• 5.27 Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research
• 5.28 Nanyang Technological University
• 5.29 NASA
• 5.30 National Cheng Kung University
• 5.31 National Chiao-Tung University
• 5.32 National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST Japan)
• 5.33 National University of Singapore
• 5.34 Northwestern University/Polyera
• 5.35 Osaka University
• 5.36 Penn State
• 5.37 Pohang University of Science and Technology (Korea)
• 5.38 Polytechnic of Milan (Politecnico di Milano)
• 5.39 Pusan National University
• 5.40 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
• 5.41 RIKEN
• 5.42 Rutgers University
• 5.43 Samtel Centre for Display Technologies
• 5.44 Seoul National University
• 5.45 Sogang University
• 5.46 Tohoku University (Japan)
• 5.47 UCLA
• 5.48 University of Arkansas
• 5.49 University of California Berkeley
• 5.50 University of Cambridge
• 5.51 University of Groningen
• 5.52 University of Houston
• 5.53 University of Liverpool
• 5.54 University of Maryland
• 5.55 University of Michigan
• 5.56 University of Minnesota
• 5.57 University of Texas
• 5.58 University of Toronto
• 5.59 University of Tokyo

Chapter Six: Eight-Year Forecasts of Organic Semiconductor Devices

• 6.1 Forecasting Methodology
  • 6.1.1 Forecasting Assumptions and Alternative Scenarios
  • 6.1.2 Alternative Scenarios
• 6.2 Forecast of OTFTs and Memories by Application
  • 6.2.1 Display Backplane Applications
  • 6.2.2 RFID Applications
  • 6.2.3 Smartcard Applications
  • 6.2.4 Sensor Applications
  • 6.2.5 Games, Gadgets and Gizmos
  • 6.2.6 Summary of OTFT and Organic Memory Applications
• 6.3 Forecasts of Organic Memories by Materials and Production Processes Used
  • 6.3.1 Materials Forecast
  • 6.3.2 Production Forecast

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1: Organic Memory and OTFT Markets ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 1-1: TOP Electronics Value Chain
• Exhibit 2-1: Characteristics of OE Materials
• Exhibit 2-2: Organic Materials Used in Memory Applications
• Exhibit 2-3: OVPD versus Thermal Evaporation
• Exhibit 4-1: Sony OLED/OTFT Display Specs
• Exhibit 4-2: TFE' s Partners
• Exhibit 4-3: TFE' s Printed Memory Specs
• Exhibit 5-1: Selected Universities and Research Institutes Involved in Research on OTFTs and Organic Memory
• Exhibit 6-1: OTFT Backplane Markets 2008-2015
• Exhibit 6-2: OTFT and Organic Memories in RFID Tags 2008-2015
• Exhibit 6-3: OTFT and Organic Memories in Smart Cards: 2008-2015
• Exhibit 6-4: OTFT and Organic Memory Sales in Sensor Markets
• Exhibit 6-5: OTFT and Organic Memory Sales in Games, Gadgets and Gizmos Markets
• Exhibit 6-6: OTFT-Only Markets ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 6-7: Memory-Only Markets ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 6-8: Memory + OTFT Markets ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 6-9: Total OTFT/Organic Memory Markets by Application ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 6-10: Materials for Organic Memory and OTFT Markets
• Exhibit 6-11: Materials for Organic Memory and OTFT Markets by Processing Type ($ Millions)