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Market Trends: Low-Carb Diets -- Will the Carbs Strike Back?

No one can deny the impact low-carb dieting has had on the American food marketplace, and on the surface high-carb foods are suffering. This new Packaged Facts reports examines the market for low carb foods and beverages, more than a year into the height of the craze. Recent surveys suggest that people are finding it hard to maintain low-carb diets, while others maintain that low carb is a lifestyle, not a diet. Indeed, just how long will the low-carb revolution last? This report asks whether low-carb has dealt an irreparable blow to pasta, bread and other high-carb foods, or whether these staples of the American diet can revive and thrive in an Atkins-colored world.

Introducing Market Trends

Market Trends is the latest product line from Packaged Facts. These timely, compact reports offer insight and analysis into new product trends, demographic shifts, and consumer behaviors that affect the food, beverage and consumer goods industries.

Report Methodology

The information in Market Trends: Low Carbs: Will the Carbs Strike Back? Is based on both primary and secondary research. Primary research involved onsite examinations of the retail milieu, interviews with marketing, public relations and industry analysts within the food industry and consultants to the industry. Secondary research entailed data-gathering from relevant trade, business, and government sources, including company literature. The analysis of consumer demographics derives from Simmons Market Research Bureau survey data for fall 2003.

What You’ll Get in this Report

Market Trends: Low Carbs: Will the Carbs Strike Back? Offers unique perspective on the lasting effects of low-carb mania. No other market research report provides the analysis and trends coverage that this report offers. Plus, you’ll benefit from extensive data, presented in easy-to-read and practical charts, tables and graphs.

How You Will Benefit from this Report

If your company wants to understand and get ahead of what has been the “big” diet and health trend, you will find this report invaluable, as it provides a comprehensive package of information and insight not offered in any other single source. You will gain a thorough understanding of the factors that influence the development of this market.

This report will help:

• Marketing Managers identify market opportunities and develop targeted promotion plans for new products and ingredients.
• Research and development professionals stay on top of competitor initiatives and explore demand for low carb product introductions.
• Advertising agencies working with clients in the food industry to help understand the product buyer to develop messages and images that compel consumers to purchase these products.
• Business development executives understand the dynamics of the market and identify possible partnerships.
• Information and research center librarians provide market researchers, brand and product managers and other colleagues with the vital information they need to do their jobs more effectively.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 The Carb Climate

• The Diet Environment
  • Cashing In On Low Carb
  • What Is a Low-Carb Product?
  • Naturally Low-Carb Products vs. Low-Carb Positioning/Formulation
• The Regulatory Environment
  • FDA To Issues Low-Carb Guidelines by Late 2004
  • Requests for FDA Action Were Building
  • Seeking Scrutiny on Low-Carb Claims
• A Nutrition Backlash?
  • Some Research Suggests Ill Effects from Sustained Diets
  • Low-Carb May Still Mean High Calorie
• A Consumer Backlash?
  • Carbs Coming Out of the Pantry
  • New Research Suggests Difficulty in Maintaining the Diet
• Product Proliferation
  • Triple the Product Introductions
  • Figure: New Product Introductions, 2003-2004*, Low-Carb, Low-Fat and Low-Sugar
  • New Offerings Continue to Emerge
  • Showing Up Late Hurts Some Marketers
  • But Investing Too Much May Come Back to Haunt

Chapter 2 Low Carb: A Look At Certain Food Segments

• Where The Market Stands
• Certain Products Excelling
• Meat, Dairy and Eggs: Ahead After Round One
• Table: U.S. Retail Sales of Meat Products, 2002-2003 (by category)
• Table: U.S. Retail Sales of Cheese, 2002-2003
• Table: U.S. Mass-Market Sales of Eggs, 2002-2003
• Bread
  • Low-Carb Flattens White Bread
  • Low Carb Strikes In-Store Bakeries, as Results Remain Flat
  • Bread Marketers Go For the Grain
  • Reclaiming the “Moral High Ground”
  • Co-Opting The “Enemy”
  • Figure: New Low-Carb Bread Product Introductions, 2003 vs. 2004*
  • Artisans Eschew Low-Carb
• Candy
  • Low-Carb Segment Fastest Growing
• Pasta and Potatoes
  • Fighting Carbs with Carbonara
  • Eden Takes Low-Carb in Stride
  • Saving the Spud
  • The Low-Carb Potato
• Snacks
  • Growth in Low Carb/Healthy Segments
  • Table: U.S. Retail Sales of Select Low-Carb Snack Foods: 1999-2003
  • Table: Annual Growth in IRI-Tracked Sales of Select Low Carb Snacks: 1999-2003
  • Sweet Snacks Lose the Carbs
  • A Slim Fast Snack Option
• Fruit Products
  • An Uphill Battle
  • But The Battle Has Been Joined
  • Juice Takes a Hit
  • The Orange Strikes Back
  • But Positions Are Improving
  • Targeting Meal Replacement
  • Advertising to Sway The Carb Watchers
  • Low-Cal, Low-Carb, Low-Sugar Juices Answer Diet Challenge
  • If You Can’t Beat ‘Em . . .
• Ice Cream
  • Low-Carb Enters the Scene
  • A Possible Convergence of No-Sugar-Added with Low-Net -Carbs
  • Low-Carb is Hot, Hot, Hot
  • Will No-Sugar-Added Go Away?
  • Lowering Carbs May Bring Former Users Back to the Category
  • Low Carb Players are Plentiful
  • Why Low-Carb Ice Cream?
  • Who Is the Low-Carb Consumer?
  • Table: Total U.S. Mainstream Retail Sales of Low-Carbohydrate Frozen Desserts: Top-Three
  • Marketers and Brands by Sales, First-Half 2004
  • Table: U.S. Mainstream Retail Low-Carbohydrate Frozen Desserts: Selected Marketers by Brand

Chapter 3 The Consumer

• How Many Are There?
• Why Are People Doing It?
• Table: Top-10 Nutrition Facts Panel Items of Importance For Carb-Watches
• Peaking or Plateauing?
• Table: Nutritional Characteristics Influencing Food Purchases
• Not So Fast . . .
• The Diet Has Ended, But the Carb Counting Lingers On
• Table: Dieters Are Watching Their . . .
• Table: Satisfaction Levels with Grocery Selections of Healthy Food
• Table: Who’s On A Low-Carb Diet
• Simmons Findings
  • Use of Low-Carb Nutritional Liquid/Powder
  • Table: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Low-Carb Nutritional Liquid/Powder
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Nutritional Liquid/Powder, by Age
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Nutritional Liquid/Powder, by Gender
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Nutritional Liquid/Powder, by Income
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Nutritional Liquid/Powder, by Education
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Liquid/Powder, by Brand
  • Use of Low-Carb Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars
  • Table: Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Low-carb Energy/Diet
  • Snacks & Bars
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars, by Age
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-carb Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars, by Gender
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-Carb Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars, By Education Level
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-carb Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars, by Income
  • Figure: Consumer Use of Low-carb Energy/Diet Snacks & Bars, by Brand

Chapter 4 The Future of Low-Carb

• Impact on the Retail and Foodservice Sectors
• Low-Carb Redefines Food Retailing Landscape
• Foodservice Trends: Low-carb Hits the Menu
• Fast-Casual/Hotel Dining
• Quick-Service Restaurants
• Table: Low-Carb Restaurant Fare
• Some Key Issues
• Online Stores?Spreading the Low-Carb Trend
• Low-carb in the Short Term: Product Offerings from Unlikely Places
• But a Product Glut in the Future?
• Will It Last?
• Food Co. CEOs Cast Their Doubts
• Nutritionists Debate the Pros and Cons
• But Others See a Sea Change