北米におけるクラス8トラック市場：2013年までの予測

Abstract

The North American market for Class 8 trucks faces major challenges over the next five years. With an economy likely to be sluggish at best, a major change in emissions legislation due in 2010 and the increasing demands of a globalised truck manufacturing industry, any business involved in either the manufacture or the use of trucks will need to be at the top of the game if profitability is to be maintained.

This report endeavours to project market developments over the next five years through to 2013, taking into account the next protocol change due on 1 January 2010. It brings together opinions from and conversations with both sides of the demand and supply equation within the North American truck market.

Three five year forecast sets are presented, based on three different market scenarios - ' benign' , ' optimistic' and ' severe' . In addition, the report examines the key legislative and related technical issues that will inevitably shape the market and dissects the strategies that the major truck OEMs and key engine suppliers are implementing to steer them through what could be difficult times.

Table of Contents

• Introduction

• Market forecasts
• Overview
• Consumer spending and the credit squeeze
• A declining dollar
• Oil prices

• ' Optimistic' forecast
• ' Benign' forecast
• ' Severe' forecast
• Conclusions

• The OEMs
• AB Volvo
• Daimler Trucks
• Navistar
• Paccar

• The engine suppliers
• Caterpillar
• Cummins
• Detroit Diesel Corporation (DDC)

• Winners and losers

• Emissions legislation and the SCR versus EGR debate
• Background
• Technological Overview
• Urea infrastructure demands
• Operational issues
• The European experience
• SCR versus EGR - the winners and losers

• Conclusions

List of figures

• Table 1: The North American market for Class 8 trucks, 2007-2012
• Figure 1: The North American market for Class 8 trucks, 2007-2012