車両衝突防止システム(CDPS)市場の動向

Executive Summary

This report analyzes a relatively new area in the auto industry - enhancements of car operation with computerized radar and telecommunications devices to avoid or reduce the risk of collisions. The topic is very important and timely for our society - every year thousands of people are being killed in car accidents and millions are injured. Our economy losses from traffic accidents are enormous, and the government is trying to improve the situation.

The report analyzes technologies and markets for CDPS - Collision Detection Prevention Systems. They include RCDPS -Radar CDPS and CCDPS - Communications CDPS. Devices, which belong to different classes, can work either independently, or together, supporting each other.

This report shows that both classes of the devices were adopted from other industries, namely radar and telecommunications. This adoption requires a lot of adjustment and design of the systems specific for car collision prevention application.

The report also analyzes the CDPS market and provides a market forecast for 2004-2010. The analysis is based on the author's model of the market and the use of publicly available information as well as interviews with vendors' personnel.

Altogether, the authors goal was to provide a complete picture for the CDPS technologies and market, and present their benefit and limitations. The authors are sure that CDPS proliferation is a near future, though a road to wide spread of these devices may be bumpy.

The report consists of eight sections:

• Section 1 is an Introduction.
• Section 2 describes the government initiatives in different countries aimed to create an intelligent highway system.
• Section 3 provides CDPS classification.
• Section 4 details technology for RCDPS and CCDPS.
• Section 5 is devoted to the market analysis of CDPS.
• Section 6 summarizes the major technical and economical CDPS characteristics.
• Section 7 analyzes a portfolio of the major market players.
• Section 8 is Conclusions.

1.0 Introduction 6

• 1.1 General 6
• 1.2 Need for CDPS 7
• 1.3 Why CDPS 7
• 1.4 Classification 8
• 1.5 Current View 9
  • 1.5.1 History and Systems Examples 10
• 1.6 Scope 12
  • 1.6.1 Methodology 13
  • 1.6.2 Intended Audience 13

2.0 Government Initiatives 14

• 2.1 US 14
• 2.2 EU 14
• 2.3 Japan 16

3.0 CDPS Classifications 18

• 3.1 Functional Classification 18
  • 3.1.1 Advisory Collision Avoidance Systems 18
  • 3.1.2 Collision Warning Systems 18
  • 3.1.3 Automated Crash Avoidance Systems 19
• 3.2 CDPS based on Crash Type 19
  • 3.2.1 Single Vehicle Road Departure 19
  • 3.2.2. Collisions at Intersections 20
• 3.3 Benefits 20
• 3.4 Issues 21

4.0 Technology 22

• 4.1 The CDPS Evolution Process 22
• 4.2 Technological Structure 23
  • 4.2.1 Driving Environment Sensing Technology 23
• 4.3 RCDPS 24
  • 4.3.1 Structures 25
  • 4.3.2 Frequency Bands 25
  • 4.3.3 Radar Versus Optics 27
  • 4.3.4 Properties 27
  • 4.1.3 Advances 29
    • 4.1.3.1 Micro Devices 29
  • 4.1.4 Problems And Future Evolution Of the Driving Safety with RCDPS 31
• 4.2 CCDPS 32
  • 4.2.1 Structures 32
    • 4.2.1.1 Global Positioning Satellites 32
    • 4.2.1.2 CCDPS Informative 33
    • 4.2.1.3 Do not Disturb 34
    • 4.2.1.4 What CCDPS Can Do 34
    • 4.2.1.5 "Collective" Car 35
    • 4.2.1.6 Navigation 36

5.0 Market 37

• 5.1 Market Drivers 37
  • 5.1.1 OPEX and CAPEX Savings 37
  • 5.1.2 Technological Factor 37
• 5.2 Market Specifics 37
• 5.3 Market Barriers and Issues 38
• 5.4 Market Forecast 39
  • 5.4.1 Model Assumptions 39
  • 5.4.2 CDPS Market Size Estimate 39
  • 5.4.3 Market Segmentation 40
  • 5.4.4 Sensitivity Analysis 41

6.0 CDPS Technical-Economical Characteristics: Summary 42

• 6.1 RCDPS 42
• 6.2 CCDPS 42
• 6.3 Pricing 43

7.0 Market Players 44

• Cambridge Consultants, Ltd 44
• DENSO 45
• Chrysler 45
• Continental 47
• Delphi Corporation 49
• Eaton Corp. 52
• Georgia Institute of Technology 53
• Hitachi 54
• Honda 55
• M/A Com - TYCO Electronics 56
• Mitsubishi 57
• RF Knapp 60
• Satellite Security Systems 61
• Toyota 62
• Valeo Raytheon 64
• Volfwagen 64
• Visteon 66

8.0 Conclusions 69