Abstract
Conditions within the power industry have changed significantly in recent
years. The rising cost of natural gas has made this an expensive source of
power, while concern about global warming and the introduction of limits on
CO2 emissions will have a profound effect on the use of coal for power
generation, at least in the developed world. In consequence nuclear power has
its best chance of a revival for a generation and renewable energy is gaining
ground as technology is refined and experience grows. The Cost of Power
Generation is a new report published by Business Insights that assesses the
current and future case for investment in traditional versus renewable energy.
This report analyzes all available data to directly compare the investment
case and future prospects of different power generation technologies. It also
examines the results of our proprietary executive survey to provide a unique
benchmark of how decision makers within the energy industry forecast the
future of power generation and the issues influencing those changes. Identify
the most competitive forms of power generation using this report' s detailed
analysis of the true costs of power generation.
Table of Contents
Executive summary
- Introduction
- Levelized cost
- Risk
- Historical costs
- The cost of carbon
- Market distortions
- The cost of power
- The Business Insights 2008 Industry survey
Chapter 1 Introducing the cost of power
- Introduction
- The structure of the report
Chapter 2 Levelized cost: the traditional approach to estimating the cost of power
- Introduction
- Capital costs
- Capacity factor
- Financing capital cost
- Levelized cost of electricity
- Interest, discount rate and present value
Chapter 3 Introducing risk into cost of electricity estimates
- Introduction
- Fuel prices and fuel price volatility
- Fuel price risk
- Portfolio planning theory
Chapter 4 Historical costs of electricity and the technology learning effect
- Introduction
- Historical costs of electricity
- Retail cost and levelized cost
- Technology costs
Chapter 5 CO2 lifecycle emissions and the cost of carbon
- Introduction
- Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions
- Placing a price on carbon
- Actual carbon costs: the European Trading Scheme
Chapter 6 Factors distorting the price of electricity
- Introduction
- Structural costs
- Grid extension
- Operational costs
- Externalities
- Subsidies
- Fuel subsidies
- Tariff subsidies
- Quotas
- Taxes
Chapter 7 The cost of power
- Introduction
- Levelized cost trends
Chapter 8 Business Insights Executive Survey
- Introduction
- Competitiveness of power generation technologies
- Impact on the competitiveness of renewable energy
- Impact on the uptake of renewable energy
- Changes in the use of fossil fuels
List of Figures
- Figure 2.1: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/kW), 2003 and 2007
- Figure 2.2: Typical capacity factors for power generating plants
- Figure 2.3: Levelized cost of generation by type ($/MWh), California 2007
- Figure 2.4: Levelized costs as estimated by Vattenfall (€/MWh)
- Figure 2.5: Mean levelized costs from published global figures
(£/MWh)
- Figure 3.6: Average world oil prices ($/barrel), 1989-2008
- Figure 4.7: Annual US photovoltaic module production costs (Cost ($/W),
1970-2005
- Figure 4.8: Global solar cell production (MWp), 1993-2010
- Figure 5.9: Energy payback ratios
- Figure 5.10: Lifetime greenhouse gas emissions for different power
generation technologies (kgCO2/kWh)
- Figure 6.11: Balancing costs for 20% wind penetration and energy storage
(€/MWh)
- Figure 6.12: External costs for various power generation technologies
within the EU (€/MWh)
- Figure 6.13: Fuel subsidies as a percentage of GDP (% of GDP)
- Figure 7.14: Levelized cost comparison, 2003 vs 2007 ($/MWH)
- Figure 7.15: Comparative levelized costs of full range of generating
technologies ($/MWh)
- Figure 8.16: The relative competitiveness of power generation technologies
in 2008 and 2018
- Figure 8.17: How important are the following for the competitiveness of
renewable energy?
- Figure 8.18: How important are the following for the uptake of renewable
energy?
- Figure 8.19: How important are the following to changes in the future use
of fossil fuel for power generation?
- Figure 8.20: In how many years would you expect renewable energy to
contribute half of global electricity generation?
- Figure 8.21: How significant do you consider the proposed hydrogen economy
for future electricity generation?
List of Tables
- Table 2.1: Capital costs of power generating technologies in the US ($/kW)
- Table 2.2: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/kW), 2003 and 2007
- Table 2.3: Typical capacity factors for power generating plants (%)
- Table 2.4: Present value of $1m as a function of discount rate
- Table 2.5: Levelized cost of generation by type ($/MWh), California 2007
- Table 2.6: Levelized costs as estimated by Vattenfall (€/MWh)
- Table 2.7: Mean levelized costs from published global figures (£/MWh)
- Table 3.8: Average world oil prices ($/barrel), 1989-2008
- Table 3.9: The comparative cost of natural gas for electricity generation
($/107kcals)
- Table 3.10: The comparative cost of steam coal for power generation
($/tonne)
- Table 4.11: The comparative cost of electricity for industry ($/MWh),
1998-2006
- Table 4.12: The comparative cost of electricity for domestic use ($/MWh),
1998-2006
- Table 4.13: Annual US photovoltaic module production costs (Cost ($/W),
1970-2005
- Table 4.14: Global solar cell production (MWp), 1993-2010
- Table 5.15: Energy payback ratios
- Table 5.16: Lifetime greenhouse gas emissions for different power
generation technologies (kgCO2/kWh)
- Table 6.17: Grid extension costs as a function of wind penetration
(€/MWh)
- Table 6.18: Transmission and distribution costs in 2020 associated with
increasing UK renewable contribution above 10% after 2010 (£m/y)
- Table 6.19: Balancing costs for 20% wind penetration and energy storage
(€/MWh)
- Table 6.20: External costs for various power generation technologies
within the EU (€/MWh)
- Table 6.21: Fuel subsidies as a percentage of GDP (% of GDP)
- Table 7.22: Levelized cost comparison, 2003 vs 2007 ($/MWH)
- Table 7.23: Comparative levelized costs of full range of generating
technologies ($/MWh)
- Table 8.24: The relative competitiveness of power generation technologies
in 2005, 2008 and 2018
- Table 8.25: The relative competitiveness of power generation technologies
in 2018 and 2013
- Table 8.26: How important are the following for the competitiveness of
renewable energy?
- Table 8.27: How important are the following for the uptake of renewable
energy?
- Table 8.28: How important are the following to changes in the future use
of fossil fuel for power generation?
- Table 8.29: What is the best way to implement carbon emission controls?
- Table 8.30: What percentage of global electricity production will be
supplied by renewable energy in ten years?
- Table 8.31: In how many years would you expect renewable energy to
contribute half of global electricity generation?
- Table 8.32: How significant do you consider the proposed hydrogen economy
for future electricity generation?
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