南アフリカの保険業界：将来予測（〜2012年）

Abstract

The market research report, "South African Insurance Industry Forecast till 2012", by RNCOS provides extensive research and in-depth analysis of the insurance sector in South Africa. This report will help the client to evaluate the leading-edge opportunities critical to the success of the insurance industry in the country. Detailed analysis supplemented with data will help in examining the evolving South African insurance market.

The forecast given in this report is not based on a complex economic model, but is intended as a rough guide to the direction in which the market is likely to move. This forecast is based on a correlation between past market growth and growth of base drivers.

Following conversions have been used in the report at the exchange rate of given years:

• 1 ZAR = US$ 0.157603171 (As on December 31, 2005)
• 1 ZAR = US$ 0.1418701321 (As on December 31, 2006)
• 1 ZAR = US$ 0.157424855 (As on September 30, 2005)

Key Findings

• By net premium, the South African long-term and short-term insurance market is expected to grow at the CAGR of nearly 12% and 17% respectively for the period 2007-2012.
• South African reinsurance market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% during 2007-2012 attributed to increasing natural disasters like earthquakes, floods etc.
• Motor and property insurance accounted for over three-fourth of the total short-term insurance market by net premium.
• Homeowner and motor insurance is anticipated to emerge as big opportunity areas for the South African insurance market.
• Material non-disclosure and misrepresentation to continue to be responsible for the highest number of fraud cases.

Key Issues & Facts

• Which factors will lead to the growth of long-term and short-term insurance in South Africa?
• What are the emerging opportunities and challenges for the industry players?
• What are the most prospective areas for investment in the insurance sector in near future?
• What are the driving forces for the South African insurance industry?
• Who are the key players in the South African insurance market?

Key Players

This section talks about the key players operating in the South Africa insurance industry, including Santam Limited, Mutual & Federal Insurance Company Limited, Hollard Insurance and Guardrisk under Short-term Insurers. Old Mutual Soputh Africa, Sanlam Limited and Liberty Group Limited under Long-term Insurers.

Research Methodology Used

Information Sources

Information has been sourced from books, newspapers, trade journals, and white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access to over 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Methods

The analysis methods include ratio analysis, historical trend analysis, and linear regression analysis using software tools, judgmental forecasting, and cause and effect analysis.

Table of Contents

1. Analyst View

2. Insurance Industry - Emerging Markets

• 2.1 Top Ten Emerging Insurance Markets
  • 2.1.1 Life Insurance
  • 2.1.2 Non-life Insurance

3. South Africa - What Makes it Attractive for Insurance Market?

• 3.1 Government Initiatives
• 3.2 Increasing Violence & Crime Rate
• 3.3 Rising Disposable Income
• 3.4 Growth in Employment
• 3.5 Surging Population

4. South Africa Insurance Industry

• 4.1 Overview
• 4.2 Performance
  • 4.2.1 Long Term Insurance
    • 4.2.1.1 Overview
    • 4.2.1.2 Income
      • 4.2.1.2.1 Individual Premium Income
      • 4.2.1.2.2 Group Schemes & Pension Funds Income
      • 4.2.1.2.3 Investment Income
    • 4.2.1.3 Claims, Expenses & Taxes
    • 4.2.1.4 Premium Spread
    • 4.2.1.5 Premium - By Insurers
      • 4.2.1.5.1 Typical Insurers
      • 4.2.1.5.2 Niche Insurers
      • 4.2.1.5.3 Link Investment Insurers
      • 4.2.1.5.4 Cell Captive Insurers
      • 4.2.1.5.5 Assistance Insurers
  • 4.2.2 Short Term Insurance
    • 4.2.2.1 Overview
    • 4.2.2.2 Premium - By Insurers
      • 4.2.2.2.1 Typical Insurers
      • 4.2.2.2.2 Cell Captive Insurers
      • 4.2.2.2.3 Niche Insurers
      • 4.2.2.2.4 Captive Insurers
    • 4.2.2.3 Premium - By Products
      • 4.2.2.3.1 Motor Insurance
      • 4.2.2.3.2 Homeowner Insurance
      • 4.2.2.3.3 Household Contents Insurance
      • 4.2.2.3.4 Liability Insurance
      • 4.2.2.3.5 Engineering Insurance
  • 4.2.3 Reinsurance

5. New Growth Avenues

• 5.1 Banking & Other Financial Institutions
• 5.2 Outsourcing Market
• 5.3 IT Market
• 5.4 Homeowner Insurance
• 5.5 Motor Insurance

6. Challenges

• 6.1 Unfavorable Consumer Behavior
• 6.2 Non-disclosure & Misrepresentation
• 6.3 Mounting Complaints

7. Future Outlook (2007-2012)

• 7.1 Long Term Insurance
• 7.2 Short Term Insurance
• 7.3 Reinsurance

8. Key Players

• 8.1 Short Term Insurers
  • 8.1.1 Santam Limited
  • 8.1.2 Mutual & Federal Insurance Company Limited
  • 8.1.3 Hollard Insurance Co. Limited
  • 8.1.4 Guardrisk
• 8.2 Long Term Insurers
  • 8.2.1 Old Mutual South Africa (OMSA)
  • 8.2.2 Sanlam Limited
  • 8.2.3 Liberty Group Limited

List of Figures:

• Figure 2-1: Emerging Markets - Life & Non-life Insurance Premium (in Billion US$), 2004 & 2005
• Figure 2-2: Emerging Markets - Life Insurance Premium by Country (%), 2005
• Figure 2-3: South Africa - Share in Life Insurance Market of Africa (%), 2006
• Figure 2-4: Emerging Markets - Non-life Insurance Premium by Country (%), 2005
• Figure 2-5: South Africa - Share in Non-life Insurance Market of Africa (%), 2006
• Figure 3-1: South Africa - Per Head Disposable Income (in US$), 2002-2005
• Figure 3-2: South Africa - Employment Growth (in Million), 2003-2006
• Figure 3-3: South Africa - Population (in Million), 2001-2006
• Figure 4-1: South Africa - Long Term (Life) Insurance Income (in Billion ZAR), 2005 & 2006
• Figure 4-2: South Africa - Individual Premium Income of Long Term Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-3: South Africa - Group Schemes & Pension Funds Income of Long Term Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-4: South Africa - Investment Income of Long Term Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-5: South Africa - Claims, Expenses & Taxes Paid by Long Term Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-6: South Africa - Net Premium Spread for Long Term Insurance Market (%), 2005
• Figure 4-7: South Africa - Net Recurring Premium for Long Term Typical Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-8: South Africa - Non-recurring Premium for Long Term Typical Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-9: South Africa - Claims for Long Term Typical Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-10: South Africa - Individual Policy Lapse Rate for Long Term Typical Insurers (%), 2002- 2006
• Figure 4-11: South Africa - Recurring Premium for Long Term Niche Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-12: South Africa - Non-recurring Premium for Long Term Niche Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-13: South Africa - Claims for Long Term Niche Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-14: South Africa - Individual Policy Lapse Rate for Long Term Niche Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-15: South Africa - Recurring Premium for Long Term Link Investment Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-16: South Africa - Non-recurring Premium for Long Term Link Investment Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-17: South Africa - Claims for Long Term Link Investment Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-18: South Africa - Individual Policy Lapse Rate for Long Term Link Investment Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-19: South Africa - Recurring Premium for Long Term Cell Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-20: South Africa - Non-recurring Premium for Long Term Cell Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-21: South Africa - Claims for Long Term Cell Captive Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-22: South Africa - Recurring Premium for Long Term Assistance Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-23: South Africa - Non-recurring Premium for Long Term Assistance Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-24: South Africa - Claims for Long Term Assistance Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-25: South Africa - Individual Policy Lapse Rate for Long Term Assistance Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-26: South Africa - Net Premium by Type of Insurers for Short Term Insurance (%), 2006
• Figure 4-27: South Africa - Net Premium for Short Term Typical Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-28: South Africa - Underwriting Profit for Short Term Typical Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-29: South Africa - Underwriting & Investment Income for Short Term Typical Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-30: South Africa - Claims for Short Term Typical Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-31: South Africa - Net Premium for Short Term Cell Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-32: South Africa - Underwriting Profit for Short Term Cell Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-33: South Africa - Underwriting & Investment Income for Short Term Cell Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-34: South Africa - Claims for Short Term Cell Captive Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-35: South Africa - Net Premium for Short Term Niche Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-36: South Africa - Underwriting Profit for Short Term Niche Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-37: South Africa - Underwriting & Investment Income for Short Term Niche Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-38: South Africa - Claims for Short Term Niche Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-39: South Africa - Net Premium for Short Term Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-40: South Africa - Underwriting Profit for Short Term Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-41: South Africa - Underwriting & Investment Income for Short Term Captive Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-42: South Africa - Claims for Short Term Captive Insurers (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-43: South Africa - Net Premium Spread for Short Term Insurance by Product (%), 2005
• Figure 4-44: South Africa - Passenger Cars & Commercial Vehicle Registration (in ‘000 Units), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-45: South Africa - Mortgage Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-46: South Africa - Recurring Reinsurance Premium (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-47: South Africa - Non-recurring Reinsurance Premium (in Million ZAR), 2002-2006
• Figure 4-48: South Africa - Reinsurance Claims (%), 2002-2006
• Figure 5-1: South Africa - Investment Spread for Short Term Insurers (%), 2005
• Figure 5-2: South Africa - Investment Spread for Long Term Insurers (%), 2005
• Figure 5-3: South Africa - Forecast for Passenger Car Registration (in ‘000 Units), 2007-2011
• Figure 5-4: South Africa - Forecast for Commercial Vehicle Registration (in ‘000 Units), 2007-2011
• Figure 6-1: South Africa - Formal Complaints Received against Short Term Insurers (in Numbers), 2003-2006
• Figure 6-2: South Africa - Types of Complaints Received against Short Term Insurers (%), 2006
• Figure 7-1: South Africa - Forecast for Net Premium of Long Term Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2007-2012
• Figure 7-2: South Africa - Forecast for Net Premium of Short Term Insurers (in Million ZAR), 2007-2012
• Figure 7-3: South Africa - Forecast for Reinsurance Premium (in Million ZAR), 2007-2012

List of Tables:

• Table 2-1: Emerging Markets - Top Ten Life Insurance Markets by Premium (in Million US$), 2005
• Table 2-2: Emerging Markets - Top Ten Non-life Insurance Markets by Premium (in Million US$), 2005
• Table 4-1: South Africa - Number of Insurance Companies by Segments (June 2006)
• Table 4-2: South Africa - Number of Short Term Insurers by Type (March 2005 & March 2006)
• Table 4-3: South Africa - Number of Short Term & Composite Reinsurers (March 2005 & March 2006)
• Table 8-1: Santam Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 & 2006
• Table 8-2: Mutual & Federal Insurance Company Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 & 2006
• Table 8-3: Hollard Insurance Co. Limited - Key Financials (in ‘000 ZAR), 2005 & 2006
• Table 8-4: Guardrisk - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 & 2006
• Table 8-5: Old Mutual South Africa - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 &2006
• Table 8-6: Sanlam Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 & 2006
• Table 8-7: Liberty Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & June 2007