Abstract
The latest report from Screen Digest with US input from Adams Media Research
is the first major industry study on the potential market for high definition
video formats. The report assess the merits of the competing formats and
predicts the most likely outcome.
Included in the report is detailed historical data for worldwide video sales
by value and volume from 1992 to 2005 as well as forecast data for the
existing and next generation video formats to 2010.
Some of the key questions that the report answers include:
- Will the new formats be the saviour of Hollywood?
- What affect will the new formats have on hardware and software sales and
pricing?
- How will the market for the new generation video software and hardware
develop over the next five years?
- Have the claims and counterclaims of the two hi-def disc camps left you
wondering what the truth is?
- What kind of interactivity do BD Java and iHD offer? Why does it matter?
- Do you understand why HP has gone neutral on the Hi-def format issue?
- Why is Microsoft's new Vista operating system a key factor in the future
of hi-def videodisc?
Table of Contents
Management summary
Digital video, SD and HDTV
- From analogue to digital
- Developments in digital video
- Interlace vs progressive scan
- From SDTV to HDTV
- HDTV broadcasting around the world
- Video compression technology
- HDTV and digital cinema
- In the beginning, VHS
Home video markets
- Introduction of DVD
- Growth in the home video market
- The future of home video
- Consumer reaction to new formats
- Threats and opportunities
- Conclusions: success or failure?
A tale of two formats
- The essential technologies
- Competing formats
- Requirements for a new format
- From red to blue lasers
- Introducing Blu-ray and HD DVD
- Blu-ray and HD DVD compared
- Common features
- HD DVD - the evolutionary solution
- Physical specification
- Data modulation, error correction and file system
- Video and content protection
- Blu-ray-the revolutionary solution
- Modulation, error correction and file system
- Video and content protection
- Other formats
- Technical status of the formats
- Licensing
- Is a single, merged format possible?
Protecting video content
- Background
- The analogue hole
- Digital copy protection on DVDs
- Content protection requirements
- Making content protection stronger
- Licensing
- Revocation vs renewability
- Content protection for BD-ROM and HD DVD-ROM
- Advanced Access Content System (AACS)
- Criticism of AACS
- Interim AACS license
- Self-Protecting Digital Content (SPDC)
- End to end protection and HDCP
- Forensic watermarking
- BD-ROM mark and HD media mark
- Implementing content protection
- Conclusions: the impact of using content protection
Supporting Blu-ray and HD DVD
- Licensing
- Which format will win?
- Blu-ray Disc Association
- DVD Forum and HD DVD Promotion
- Group
- Content owners
- Sony Pictures
- Twentieth Century Fox
- Lionsgate Home Entertainment
- MGM
- Paramount
- Universal Pictures
- Warner Home Video
- Disney/Buena Vista
- The Weinstein Company (TWC)
- Studio Canal
- Other video content owners
- The software balance of power
- Pricing strategies
- Genre breakdown
- Games companies
- Computer companies
- Apple
- Dell
- Hewlett Packard (HP)
- Intel
- Microsoft
- NEC
- Consumer electronics companies
- The hardware balance of power
- Conclusions
Compression and authoring
- Interactive multimedia
- CD-interactive
- Digital Video Interactive (DVI)
- Macromedia Director
- Video compression
- Audio compression
- Authoring and programming requirements
- Authoring HD DVD-Video
- Programming with iHD
- Authoring BDAV
- HD Movie mode (HDMV)
- BD-Java mode (BD-J)
- Status of compression and authoring tools
- Video compression
- Sonic's High Definition Authoring Alliance
- Other authoring tools
- Testing and emulation
- Authoring studios
- Title testing
- Conclusions
- Disc manufacturing requirements and equipment
Manufacturing next generation discs
- HD DVD-ROM disc manufacture
- BD-ROM disc manufacture
- Manufacturing costs
- Equipment suppliers
- Replicators
- The future for the replication industry
- The future for suppliers
- Semiconductor components
Hardware for next generation formats
- Laser diodes and optics
- Players and recorders
- Blu-ray Disc hardware
- HD DVD hardware
- Games consoles
- Computers, drives and writers
- HD compatible displays
- DVI, HDMI and HDCP
- Digital Visual Interface (DVI)
- High-Definition Multimedia Interface (HDMI)
- High bandwidth Digital Content
- Protection (HDCP)
- HD-ready
- Display devices technologies and capabilities
- Compatibility
The future
- The future for Blu-ray and HD DVD
- Fourth generation optical discs: myth or reality?
- Holographic storage
- Near field discs
- Will there be a fourth generation?
High definition DVD market overview
- Hardware sales to get off to slow start
- High definition disc market outlook
- Consumer confusion will dampen enthusiasm
- Lower buy rates, higher prices
- Hi-def discs will boost consumer spending
- Impact of implementing ICT
List of tables and charts
Management summary
Digital video, SD and HDTV
- Interlaced and progressive scan
- SDTV vs HDTV
- PAL and NTSC vs HD frame resolutions
- MPEG-2, H264 and VC-1 codec comparison
- SD, HD and digital cinema image sizes
Home video markets
- VCD retail sales 1996-2005
- VHS retail sales 1992-2005
- Worldwide video spending v. BO revenues 1985-2005
- DVD Retail sales 1997-2005
- Worldwide retail video sales by volume and value
- Worldwide retail video sales by value 1992-2005
- Worldwide Retail video sales by volume 1992-2005
A tale of two formats
- Diagram of disc cross-sections (CD and DVD discs)
- Comparing HD DVD with BD
- Difference in size between pits and tracks (all formats)
- HD DVD disc formats and capacities
- Diagram of hybrid twin format DVD/HD DVD disc
- Diagram of HD DVD disc
- Blu-ray Disc and media formats
- Single and dual layer Blu-ray Disc construction
Protecting video content
- AACS for next generation formats
- AACS system overview
- Annual AACS fees for prerecorded media
- Layer with virtual machine running SPDC
Supporting Blu-ray and HD DVD
- Hi-def disc titles by format
- Number of titles announced by format by July 2006
- Hybrid HD DVD/DVD discs
- Number of titles available by US hardware launch
- Average DVD sales per title in hi-def release slates
- Number of titles announced by format
- Number of exclusive titles announced by format
- Pricing strategies by content provider
- Blu-ray Disc slate split by genre
- HD DVD slate split by genre
- Hi-def feature film slate by type
- CE manufacturer shares of DVD hardware market ranked by (USA)
- CE manufacturer shares of DVD hardware market ranked by (Europe)
- Worldwide PC market shares based on shipments
- Worldwide current-generation games console (128-bit) installed base market
shares
Compression and authoring
- Audio codecs for HD DVD and BD
- Bit rates for SD and HD video
- HD and SD resolutions
- HD DVD-Video video and graphic planes
- HD DVD-Video features
- BD-AV movie and graphic planes
Manufacturing next generation discs
- Diagram of CD, DVD, HD DVD and
- BD discs
- Mastering processes for optical discs
- Replicating single and dual layer HD
- DVD-ROM discs
- Replicating single and dual layer BD
- ROM discs
- Optical disc equipment suppliers
Hardware for next generation formats
- Comparison of optical parameters of optical discs
- Illustration of lasers for all four formats
- Worldwide DVD player/recorder penetration
- HD-ready label
The future
- Annual BD/HD DVD hardware sales in key markets
- High definition disc market outlook
High definition DVD market overview
- Potential for BD/HD DVD hardware in key markets
- Potential for hi-def disc sales by volume
- USA: Consumer spending on video 2004-2010
- Potential for hi-def disc sales by value
- Japan: Consumer spending on video 2004-2010
- Europe: Consumer spending on video 2004-2010
- Video market potential 2010
- Video market potential 2010 (continued)
- Consumer spending on retail DVD + hi sdef discs 2010
- Potential losses from ICT: USA +
- Europe + Japan
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