太陽光発電技術、装置、応用、および材料

Abstract

Thanks to incentive policies, the PV market has followed an average annual growth of 30% over the last five years, reaching 60% in 2004. Since 2005, the shortage of the main used raw material (purified silicon) has strongly slow down solar modules market whereas demand continue to increase.

Recently, leading silicon suppliers have announced large investments in production capacity.These companies e.g. REC, Hemlock, Wacker Chemie, Tokuyama... are expected to minimize silicon shortage situation in 2009. These announcements have lead to the forecast of a market tripling by 2010 and such dynamism is creating important market and industry mutations. Established PV companies such as Q-Cells, Sunpower, Suntech... are now modelling their businesses to anticipate pressure on margins. Following success stories of Applied Materials and Oerlikon, material and equipment manufacturers from the semi-conductor industry are eying the industry' s double-digit growth and entering PV market with vigour.

Most equipment or material suppliers need a full description of the context to evaluate the opportunities and risks of PV market: booming market, emerging technologies on the market, processes to be optimized for large production, manufacturing cost reduction...

This report clarifies the situation in providing information and analysis:

• a complete quantification of the market until 2015,
• an overview of the 9 main PV technologies,
• an exhaustive description of their respective manufacturing processes.

Equipment manufacturers and materials suppliers will find all requested data either to enter PV industry or to increase their investment in this market. The report offers a full description of photovoltaic' s market, technologies, manufacturing processes, equipments and materials and it also includes key figures, analyses and useful tools for strategic decisions.

This report answer to:

• Size of current global manufacturing equipment park
• The manufacturing processes per technologies
• Appropriate equipment and materials needed for photovoltaic modules manufacturers
• Ranking of photovoltaic technologies
• Equipment and materials challenges to be taken up

More than traditional reports presenting global market size forecast, segmentation and some technology description, the purpose here is to cross several analysis to offer a good representation of the industrial situation

A third of the report is exclusively focusing on market opportunities for main manufacturing equipments:

• PECVD
• Sputtering
• Lasers
• Screen printing
• Wet bench
• Diffusion furnace
• Lithography
• MOCVD

For each equipment, we propose market evolution scenarios based on several throughputs that ones can recognize its own specifications. We also report equipment competitive technologies, main players, average price... Purchasing this report will give you an instant access to structured benchmark information, market forecasts and several analyses.

Manufacturers of equipment: lasers, screen printers wet benches, furnaces, sputtering systems, CVD systems, PVD systems... and suppliers of all associated materials must be aware of the photovoltaic market opportunities!

Yole Développement has studied and analysed the manufacturing processes of the main 9 technologies:

• Wafer based,
• Thin wafer based,
• a-Si,
• Tandem a-Si/μSi,
• III-V,
• CIS/CIGS,
• CdTe,
• Dye sensitized solar cells,
• Organic solar cells.

Among these technologies, some reached production and others are still being developed. All of them need materials and equipments solutions to increase innovation (lightweight, versatility, aesthetic...), optimize process and reduce manufacturing cost.

Yole Développment' s report will help suppliers to control new technical requirements to take benefit from the shift in equipment or material solutions for industrialization and mass production.

Companies in the report

Air Liquide, Altatech, AMI Presco, Analog JSC, Antec Solar, Applied Films/Applied Materials, ASYS/EKRA, Aurel Automation, Baccini, BP Solar, Brilliant 234, Centrotherm, CSG Solar, DEK, Denal, Despatch, Deutsche Cell, Dow Corning, Dupont, Dyesol, Ecole Polytechnique de Paris, Elkem, EnviroEtch, ErSol, ESL ElectroScience, ETHZ, Evergreen, Ever-Q, Ferro, Firstsolar, Flisom, Fraunhofer ISE, Gebr Schmid, GT Solar, Heraeus, IMT Neuchatel, Innolas, Iowa Thin Films, IRDEP, ISET, Isofoton, Kaneka, Komax Systems, Konarka, Koyo, Kyocera, Machine Dubuit, MEMC, Metalor, Mitsubishi Electric, Motech, Nanosolar, NPC, NREL, Oerlikon, OTB Engineering, Pemco Euroinks, PVA tepla, Q-Cells, REC, RENA Rofin, Roth and Rau, Saint-Gobain, Sanyo, Schott Solar Seishin, Sharp, Sierratherm, Solar Force, SolarWorld, Stang, Sulfurcell, Sun Techniks, Suntech, Surlyn, Technofimes, Top Solar, Trumpf, United SolarOvonics, University of Barcelona, University of Julich, University of Konstanz, University of Parma, University of Toledo, Utrech University, Veeco, VHF-Technologies, Von Ardenne, Wurth Solar...

Who should buy this report?

Both established PV industry equipment manufacturers and new entrants will quickly recoup PV TEAM report purchase.

PV TEAM report targets:

• Marketing Executives of equipment and materials companies will find key figures for their strategic plans and offer design.
• Sales & Business Development Managers will have market potential (# of machine/year) and operational tools (Equipment/techno; Techno/market segments).
• Technical Directors will find global overview of all processes with a benchmark on main equipments. They will find all relevant information to evaluate the customization of their equipments

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Market description and forecast

• Technology segmentation
• Comparison between technologies
• Market forecast with technological breakdown2005-2015
• Technologies market shares 2005-2015
• Silicon supply status
• Market segmentation
• Dynamic of the segmentation
• Value chains and business models
• Wafer based
• Thin films
• Focus on main players
• 2007 top ten
• SHARP
• Q-Cells
• Solarworld
• Added value chain
• Wafer based
• Thin films
• Food chain investment forecasts

Technologies and process

(Si Wafer based, thin Si wafer based, a-Si, a-Si/μSi, CIS/CIGS, CdTe, III-V, DSSC, Organic)

• Descritpion of architecture
• Production flowchart
• Descritpion of production steps
• Players
• Equipments
• Materials

Segment / technologies

• Status and analysys of 2006 situation
• Estimation and analysis of 2010 and 2015 situations

Industrial park estimation

• Assumptions
• Mature PV manufacturing equipments:(Wet bench, Diffusion furnace, Screen printers, PECVD (SiNx), Sputtering (SiNx), PECVD for thin films deposition, Laser scribers, Sputter for TCO deposition, MOCVD)
  • Global park estimation 2007
  • Estimated annual demand in equipment 2007-2015
  • Technical characteristics
  • Raw material suppliers
  • Equipment manufacturers
  • Main customers
  • Competitive technologies
• New equipments (MBE, Lithography)
  • Equipment manufacturers
  • Main customers
  • Issues
  • Competitive technologies
• Glass market estimation for PV in 2015

List of Charts

• PV technolgies comparison efficiency/stability/market status
• Important players per business model in wafer based technologies
• Important players per business model in thin film technologies
• Top 12 silicon manufacturers in 2009
• Sharp production capacity evolution
• Q-Cells (and subsidiaries) production capacity evolution
• Solarworld production capacity evolution
• Analysis and evolution of PV market structure (market segments, technologies) 2006, 2010, 2015
• Requested investment for up scaling production

List of figures

• PV investment forecast
• PV technologies segmentation
• PV market forecast with technology breakdown 2005-2015
• PV technologies market shares forecast 2005-2015
• 2007 Top ten PV players estimation
• Wafer Based technology added value chain analysis ($/Wp)
• Wafer based technology module price forecast 2002-2015 ($/Wp, cumulated production)
• Thin film technologies added value chain analysis ($/Wp)
• Thin film technologies module price forecast 2002-2015 ($/Wp, cumulated production)
• Wafer based PV technology flow chart
• Thin wafer based PV technology flow chart
• a-Si and a-Si / μ-Si flow charts
• CIS/CIGS flow charts
• DSSC general flow chart
• Estimation of annual machine demand until 2015 in studied equipment
• Technology breakdown and estimation of glass demand for PV in 2015